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Central PA - Jan/Feb 2019 Obs and Discussion


MAG5035
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Just now, Ruin said:

hmm rader shows blue for the last hour but nothing falling? Im surprised I thought that front thumb of snow would have moistened the air up enough to where even lighter snows would fall.

I thought the same thing until i stepped outside and discovered it's a very fine light rain. (at least down this way) 

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3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Been reading a lot of opinions from respected mets to watch for the first full week of March. 

I like March snow (okay, any snow) because of shorter wave lengths and more dynamics at play in the atmosphere. If something can blow up in early March it might be special. 

I shoveled my driveway an hour ago and the pavement is 100% wet. 2/20 solar radiation for the loss. :(

We just gotta make it through this spring like weekend.  After this blip I think we will be tracking threats again. Heck we might be tracking threats before it even turns cold again. I think that you are right that something special could be coming. It would be a great way to close winter. 

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8 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I thought the same thing until i stepped outside and discovered it's a very fine light rain. (at least down this way) 

eh fudge all rdy turned to frz rain not even sleet? hopefully when we get heavier bands we will switch to snow.

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1 hour ago, bubbler86 said:

Check out this panel.  Did not notice this  much before but it is saying there is going to be a sleet bomb north of Harrisburg tonight. 

 

The key to the ice later on is going to be depth of the low level cold. I look at 925mb (3k feet) temps as a big factor with sleet vs freezing rain. Short/near term models had prolific freezing rain amounts last week as well, but cold up thru 925mb or so held firm and we had a good bit of sleet and not much freezing rain. Looking at mesoanalysis, we're still below freezing at all levels in PA from the Laurels east (surface, 925, 850, 700mb). 925mb is the coldest, with a large portion of PA being shown at -7ºC (19ºF). It's gonna take awhile to route that out, so I think when we bring in the second wave of precip later.. I don't think it'll be completely freezing rain.

1681784828_ScreenShot2019-02-20at2_12_53PM.thumb.png.080826116be444e4542c297b2efdd750.png

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1 minute ago, MAG5035 said:

The key to the ice later on is going to be depth of the low level cold. I look at 925mb (3k feet) temps as a big factor with sleet vs freezing rain. Short/near term models had prolific freezing rain amounts last week as well, but cold up thru 925mb or so held firm and we had a good bit of sleet and not much freezing rain. Looking at mesoanalysis, we're still below freezing at all levels in PA from the Laurels east (surface, 925, 850, 700mb). 925mb is the coldest, with a large portion of PA being shown at -7ºC (19ºF). It's gonna take awhile to route that out, so I think when we bring in the second wave of precip later.. I don't think it'll be completely freezing rain.

1681784828_ScreenShot2019-02-20at2_12_53PM.thumb.png.080826116be444e4542c297b2efdd750.png

I was just typing up a post about the fact that if we had held on to moderate precip a few hours longer I think it would have stayed snow and we would all be talking about the best snow of the year...and that even now it is below freezing at 700MB.  If anything one could argue that precip right now or even 4 hours from now would lower the temps a bit at the surface at least for my locale.  

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Just now, bubbler86 said:

I was just typing up a post about the fact that if we had held on to moderate precip a few hours longer I think it would have stayed snow and we would all be talking about the best snow of the year...and that even now it is below freezing at 700MB.  If anything one could argue that precip right now or even 4 hours from now would lower the temps a bit at the surface at least for my locale.  

Yea the precip flew through and shut off a little quicker than expected. We did still see warning amounts but they appear to have stayed turnpike and south. I ended up a couple inches short but still an impressive snowfall this morning. I think a lot of us are seeing freezing drizzle right now because we lost the mid-level seeding after the main snowfall pushed away. That just leaves us with the low level stuff right now. You can see that looking at the different tilts on the CCX radar. Turn it to tilt 3 and theres nothing on radar once the beam is above 7k feet.

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21 minutes ago, daxx said:

We just gotta make it through this spring like weekend.  After this blip I think we will be tracking threats again. Heck we might be tracking threats before it even turns cold again. I think that you are right that something special could be coming. It would be a great way to close winter. 

I'm already eyeing up the freezing rain showing up on the NAM in the central 1/3 of PA on the front end of the cutter Sun morning. Euro was close to that and only briefly had the far southern tier warm. 

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Latest HRRR continues to give all of us freezing rain primarily between 7pm and 11pm this evening.  Temp at MDT forecasted to be 29 at 7pm, 31 at 10pm, and then just touches freezing as it ends by 11pm.  Total liquid dropped a bit, now down to 0.43".  The worst single hour for accumulations is between 7 and 8pm when almost half of that, 0.19" falls.  That does coincide with the coldest surface temp, so there could be some rapid accretion.

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19 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Yea the precip flew through and shut off a little quicker than expected. We did still see warning amounts but they appear to have stayed turnpike and south. I ended up a couple inches short but still an impressive snowfall this morning. I think a lot of us are seeing freezing drizzle right now because we lost the mid-level seeding after the main snowfall pushed away. That just leaves us with the low level stuff right now. You can see that looking at the different tilts on the CCX radar. Turn it to tilt 3 and theres nothing on radar once the beam is above 7k feet.

Always understood the concept of radar but did not realize different tilts were available on public sites...could I ask where you are able to see that?  

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10 minutes ago, daxx said:

What I meant to say is under some of the darker blips on the radar I have light sleet falling. Nothing heavy falling. 

Yea, will be interesting if we hold on to most of the column (probably you guys more than me) when that 20+dbz gets here later.  I missed out on whatever sleet storm you guys had last week.  I know my snow pack is crusted over right now and ready to put up its best fight tomorrow.  

 

 

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Temps near 50 plus a strengthening sun is going to make retention a challenge...we need to get a high water equivalent in this pack and hope for some cloud cover between 10am and 2pm. 

For those that didn't clear their driveways...don't. Mine is an absolute skating rink already. My thought for clearing it when i did was that it was super easy to shovel it before the ice compared to how heavy it's going to be later on. Doing so however has put my family's health and safety in peril, lol

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9 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Temps near 50 plus a strengthening sun is going to make retention a challenge...we need to get a high water equivalent in this pack and hope for some cloud cover between 10am and 2pm. 

For those that didn't clear their driveways...don't. Mine is an absolute skating rink already. My thought for clearing it when i did was that it was super easy to shovel it before the ice compared to how heavy it's going to be later on. Doing so however has put my family's health and safety in peril, lol

That’s why I left a layer of snow! If I went to the parent I turned over the shovel and raked snow across to backfill. 

I probably looked drunk doing that lol. 

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4 minutes ago, paweather said:

Let's go on to the next one. :-) Just kidding some ice coming but then spring for the weekend. Blizz get us pumped up again next week!

NWS seems a bit bullish for this Friday night into saturday (Mag mentioned as well).  

We are actually back to light snow here...snizzle, light snow, whatever...flakes falling. 

 

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12 minutes ago, bubbler86 said:

NWS seems a bit bullish for this Friday night into saturday (Mag mentioned as well).  

We are actually back to light snow here...snizzle, light snow, whatever...flakes falling. 

 

I did see that I was shocked. Snow and FRZ for Saturday morning then rain and snow in my zone. Interesting. 

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