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Central PA - Jan/Feb 2019 Obs and Discussion


MAG5035
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1 minute ago, KPITSnow said:

Man, the gfs seems to be completely on its own on this one. Can it be that far out to lunch? 

It cant account for the heavier precip allowing it to stay snow. No way in hell its right whenever every single model is close to it atleast for WPA. 

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2 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

Man, the gfs seems to be completely on its own on this one. Can it be that far out to lunch? 

Is that for the Pitt area specifcally?  It is not so off the wall for CTP area.  Nam is the outlier here.  The theme of the 0Z suite so far has been a slightly delayed onset, slightly less intensity which both translate to a bit faster switch to sleet so lower snow totals than 18Z.  Not too worried about it.  

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4 minutes ago, bubbler86 said:

Is that for the Pitt area specifcally?  It is not so off the wall for CTP area.  Nam is the outlier here.  The theme of the 0Z suite so far has been a slightly delayed onset, slightly less intensity which both translate to a bit faster switch to sleet so lower snow totals than 18Z.  Not too worried about it.  

I’d say everywhere. The short range models aren’t even close to the GFS, and the euro is a pretty significantly different solution as well.

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Just now, KPITSnow said:

I’d say everywhere. The short range models aren’t even close to the GFS, and the euro is a pretty significantly different solution as well.

Yea, the Euro (and the Icon) have held serve pretty much straight through the last few days.  The GFS steals our snow and lays it on the MA. 

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9 minutes ago, bubbler86 said:

Is that for the Pitt area specifcally?  It is not so off the wall for CTP area.  Nam is the outlier here.  The theme of the 0Z suite so far has been a slightly delayed onset, slightly less intensity which both translate to a bit faster switch to sleet so lower snow totals than 18Z.  Not too worried about it.  

The GFS has 3/4 of PA to plain rain by 7pm tomorrow. That ain't gonna happen. 

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1 minute ago, MAG5035 said:

The GFS has 3/4 of PA to plain rain by 7pm tomorrow. That ain't gonna happen. 

Where would you put your eggs on this one mag? There are extreme differences between several of the models. 

Also, are these discrepancies between models getting worse. I’m not sure I’ve ever seen the gfs and NAM this far apart so close to an event?

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4 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

The GFS has 3/4 of PA to plain rain by 7pm tomorrow. That ain't gonna happen. 

Yea we are veterans of these snow to slop situations now after 1/2 dozen this season. The GFS 2m temps have been 5-10 degrees too high on every storm.  Still pretty amazing differences between Nam and GFS. Hard to have faith in anything beyond using them for trends.

 

 

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One small observation is that the 02Z HRRR had a notable pullback on overall accumulations over most of the area.  At 01Z it was giving MDT 7.3" total of snow; at 02Z it was giving 5.3" total for the storm.  I don't know if it will just keep fluctuating up and down or not.

Also, has anyone listened to Tom Russell's forecast?  I only heard the forecast that was the daytime on the radio where he was only going for 2-4" over the LSV followed by the flip.  Don't know if he's changed his numbers or not tonight.

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5 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

One small observation is that the 02Z HRRR had a notable pullback on overall accumulations over most of the area.  At 01Z it was giving MDT 7.3" total of snow; at 02Z it was giving 5.3" total for the storm.  I don't know if it will just keep fluctuating up and down or not.

Also, has anyone listened to Tom Russell's forecast?  I only heard the forecast that was the daytime on the radio where he was only going for 2-4" over the LSV followed by the flip.  Don't know if he's changed his numbers or not tonight.

The HRRR was atrocious the past two storms and Nov. 

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33 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

Where would you put your eggs on this one mag? There are extreme differences between several of the models. 

Also, are these discrepancies between models getting worse. I’m not sure I’ve ever seen the gfs and NAM this far apart so close to an event?

The colder guidance for sure. I mean most other guidance is pretty similar to each other thermally and then there's the GFS. We have a tremendous influx of moisture and WAA precip attacking a high crossing upstate New York and a set cold air mass at all the important levels to kick this event off. Pittsburgh metro is going to have the usual issues being west of the mountains and warming to rain later in the event but I see them seeing the front blast of snow with the rest of us. Most guidance not named the GFS has not only Pit but pretty much all of SW PA getting half decent accumulating snow before the change. I think Pittsburgh sees at least 3" from this. 

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3 hours ago, bubbler86 said:

LOL, had to help you out but I like the name Milltown. 

LOL...I was sitting waiting for my basketball team to come out from their game down at PSU Brandywine. Quick glance at small text on my phone and I saw Milltown instead of Millville. Probably because my 51 year old eyes are getting tired...

 

3 hours ago, MillvilleWx said:

Hey Voyager! Your area is is the Central PA north of Turnpike to 99! Big area, but I felt it would be pretty uniform there. Hope that helps and hope you're doing well!

Thanks! Sorry about getting your name wrong, but I was reading on the quick.

 

55 minutes ago, 2001kx said:

started at 2" now up to 4" for me on those maps..

Looks like they LOWERED eastern Schuylkill County down a couple of inches.

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0z Euro cut 1-2” from almost everywhere fwiw - likely due to earlier changeover from the last few runs.  With the window so small (4-6 hours) it is really going to come down to how fast does the initial precip erode the dry air, how heavy of rates can we pull through the morning hours, how many extra hours (1? 2?) can heavy rates hold off the inevitable transition to sleet/freezing rain.

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3 hours ago, djr5001 said:

0z Euro cut 1-2” from almost everywhere fwiw - likely due to earlier changeover from the last few runs.  With the window so small (4-6 hours) it is really going to come down to how fast does the initial precip erode the dry air, how heavy of rates can we pull through the morning hours, how many extra hours (1? 2?) can heavy rates hold off the inevitable transition to sleet/freezing rain.

Here is the 0z Euro map.

B43E6666-06FF-420F-B3E5-DFA541C059B7.png

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37 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

29/16. Was hoping it would be around 27 this morning. We'll see if we wet bulb down a degree or two.

I've been forecasting 2" to possibly 4" here at work since Monday. I'm riding that prediction home. We'll see what happens...

i too was expecting (or hoping) we'd be a couple degrees colder. 

Glad to see your here posting Mike. 

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42 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

29/16. Was hoping it would be around 27 this morning. We'll see if we wet bulb down a degree or two.

I've been forecasting 2" to possibly 4" here at work since Monday. I'm riding that prediction home. We'll see what happens...

Surface wet bulbs are 24-25ºF in the LSV per mesoanalysis, temps should fall a couple degrees when things get rolling. 

Fresh warning statements have the JST-AOO-Huntingdon-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin south central region for 5-8" and up to a quarter. Rest of the warning in the Sus Valley 4-7" and up to a quarter ice. Essentially a uniform warning really. FIG-UNV-SEG corridor at 3-6" and .1-.2" ice. IPT and northern tier 1-3" and up to a tenth ice. 

 

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2 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Surface wet bulbs are 24-25ºF in the LSV per mesoanalysis, temps should fall a couple degrees when things get rolling. 

Fresh warning statements have the JST-AOO-Huntingdon-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin south central region for 5-8" and up to a quarter. Rest of the warning in the Sus Valley 4-7" and up to a quarter ice. Essentially a uniform warning really. FIG-UNV-SEG corridor at 3-6" and .1-.2" ice. IPT and northern tier 1-3" and up to a tenth ice. 

 

Do you know of a good radar that eliminates virga, or does such a thing exist? 

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