Blizzard of 93 Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 27 minutes ago, canderson said: Euro looks great. I’m sure Blizz will be here soon with maps but it’s wetter than 12z. Yes, I just saw the 18z Euro! @pasnownut & @Itstrainingtime will like the bump east with the better snow totals! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 Just now, Blizzard of 93 said: Yes, I just saw the 18z Euro! @pasnownut & @Itstrainingtime will like the bump east with the better snow totals! HRDEREDERPS or whatevs also showed lanco and ENE getting a nice couple hour shellackin down here, do its my new hug for the hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 3 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Yes, I just saw the 18z Euro! @pasnownut & @Itstrainingtime will like the bump east with the better snow totals! Love it Blizz! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 why is the blue and purple both showing 6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 1 minute ago, 2001kx said: why is the blue and purple both showing 6" It is just the way the map smooths out for the graphic. The dark blue, purple and purple with slight red tint is 6-8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 The latest run of the HRRR 3k puts all of CTP in a great spot. This run ends at 18z tomorrow,& the simulated radar shows a few more hours of snow to go for most of the LSV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 Alight y'all. It's that time where I come in and make a forecast for my PA brethren. First off, this storm is quite the juicy storm with PWAT's running 1-2 standard deviations above normal across the south and into the Tennessee Valley. This moisture will advect northward into a solid polar airmass with low dew points capable of producing a sufficient wet bulb once the precip arrives. This will keep the entire region as snow for the morning with the only warm spot in the state in the SW corner due to the strong WAA on the western side of the Apps. Between 10-14z, snow will break out across areas from west-southwest to the east with the last spots to see snow east of the 83 corridor. Strong low and mid level frontogenesis will move into south-central PA and the Southern Laurels in the morning with heavy snowfall rates for several hours expected. The higher terrain around 99 will be the best area for coupled frontogenic forcing, as well as the orographic enhancements of the Allegheny's. Strong mid level front will motion to the northeast into CPA, but there will be a cutoff of the greatest forcing potential over the area, and that looks to lie just north of I-80. Further to the east, WAA regime will supply a solid area of snowfall, but the strength of the jet between 850-600 mb will eventually shift the focus over to sleet, and the question lies, how quickly can this occur. Now, given the rates associated with the 700mb frontogen, heavy snowfall might counter-act the initial warm surge aloft, allowing for a prolonged period of rimed aggregates to fall across Southern PA up to the turnpike. Models are beginning to the potential with even the longer range HRRR indicating the evolution further south into Central MD. I think what will occur is a very prolific thump for areas like HBG/THV/LNS with the best focus west of the Shenandoah. Sleet and ZR will ultimately win out by late afternoon and continue through storms end with plain rain a distinct possibility for areas east of I-83 and south of the turnpike. My forecast is a gauge on the current trends in guidance and the overall synoptic setup evolving. I might be conservative in some spots, but I'd rather bust a little low. Accumulations will be snow/sleet and ice accretion. Laurels: 6-12" with 0.25-0.50" ice (Jackpot of up to 14" possible) HBG down the 81 corridor to Chambersburg: 5-9" with 0.1-0.3" ice MD Line from north of Hagerstown over to SE York Co: 5-8" with 0.1-0.25" ice THV: 5-8" with 0.1-0.25" ice Lancaster Co South of Pike: 3-6" with 0.1-0.25" ice Lancaster Co North of Pike: 4-7" with 0.1-0.3" ice Central PA north of Turnpike over to 99: 5-9" with 0.1-0.2" ice I-80 corridor: 3-7" with T-0.1" ice Hope everyone enjoys the snow! 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 6 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Alight y'all. It's that time where I come in and make a forecast for my PA brethren. Thanks for remembering us and that forecast seems very reasonable. Two Met's posting in the PA forum in the same day! A rare day indeed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 Well no naming...Nam is still focusing the better forcing up into North Central PA so it is either going to be terribly wrong or score the win of the storm. Does show a lot of Ice in the Bottom third of the state and actually changes the whole state over to a mix at one point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 Milltown, you didn't really mention I-81 north into Schuylkill County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 28/9...I like having a low dew but I don't want it TOO low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 Just now, Voyager said: Milltown @MillvilleWxyou didn't really mention I-81 north into Schuylkill County. LOL, had to help you out but I like the name Milltown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 27 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The latest run of the HRRR 3k puts all of CTP in a great spot. This run ends at 18z tomorrow,& the simulated radar shows a few more hours of snow to go for most of the LSV. now thats what Im talkin about..... upper graphic looks best ive seen for LSV. Keep talkin dirty to me.....it's workin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 Im approve of this map. Friggit. Good enough for me. I was never in the best region for snow, so lets do it. This while including sleet, is still a nice CTP special. And fwiw, you can take totals by 60% and thats about what I'd guess happens. Time to go to meso/short rangers and watch da radar and look outside and enjoy every flake...whatever works for you. talk to ya'll in the morn. Looks like were trackin more for next week and possibly beyond as well. Enjoy gang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 39 minutes ago, bubbler86 said: It is just the way the map smooths out for the graphic. The dark blue, purple and purple with slight red tint is 6-8". Ok thanks..was wondering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 Here is the Kucherha for the Nam. LOTS of Ice for the LSV....light on the snow. Really floods the column up to the NY state line. Based on radar I think this is underdone a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 18 minutes ago, Voyager said: Milltown, you didn't really mention I-81 north into Schuylkill County. Hey Voyager! Your area is is the Central PA north of Turnpike to 99! Big area, but I felt it would be pretty uniform there. Hope that helps and hope you're doing well! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 I don't trust the freezing rain output of the 12Km NAM, but the 3Km I lean towards as being a better representation. After giving me 5" of snow the 3Km gives me 0.49" of ZR through 12Z Thursday. Yikes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 On the other hand, the HRRR gives me 8" of snow and only 0.06" of ZR. Which one do we trust??? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 I'm not sure anybody posted this pivotal map of the 0Z HRRR out to 12Z Thursday morning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 CTP disco the 50 Shades of Gray for weather nerds. SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... *Snow and icy mix will result in travel disruptions Wednesday into Wednesday night The CAD pattern will set the stage for significant snow and ice event for south-central PA on Wednesday. Strong low-level theta-e advection of rich GOMEX moisture and favorable mid to upper level dynamics will support a broad area of wintry precip overspreading the area Wednesday morning. Across the southern half of Pennsylvania, any light snow within an hour of the onset (between 11Z-14Z Wed) should transition to a 3-5 hour period of moderate to heavy snow with snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour, thanks to strong upper divergence and low-mid level FGEN. This area of high prob GRTN 1 inch per hour lingers the longest across the South-Central Mtns and Lower Susq Valley, before shifting east of our SE CWA during the mid to late afternoon hours. Somewhat similar to the Nov 15th, 2018 Winter Storm, this upcoming one features hefty amounts of moisture, and Max Wet bulb temps only creeping a deg or 2 C above zero in an approx 2 kft thick layer (up around 7-9 kft AGL) for the early and mid afternoon. Strong UVVEL may cool this slightly above freezing layer (or it may be only deep enough to make the snowflakes sticky) and delay the changeover to sleet during peak intensity. This creates a potential error in snow amounts of 2-3 inches on the low side should the changeover not occur until late afternoon across Central PA and the Susq Valley. The lower probability of a quicker changeover could trim current snow totals by an inch or so. Hires model data and NBM maxTw aloft indicate that snow will transition to an icy mix of sleet and freezing rain during the afternoon/evening before ending (possibly as freezing drizzle) late Wednesday night as the thicker mid/high seeder-feeder cloud deck peels off to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 1 minute ago, CarlislePaWx said: I'm not sure anybody posted this pivotal map of the 0Z HRRR out to 12Z Thursday morning... Interesting, in a not so good way for me, is the the HRR is steadily decreasing the size of the snow maxes North each hour. 1Z 0Z 23Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 Look at that juice coming here. Forget the models now. This is a good 5 plus for most of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 27/9 here. Had made it to 26 before stopping the drop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 8 minutes ago, bubbler86 said: 27/9 here. Had made it to 26 before stopping the drop. 26/17 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 29/13 at capital city airport - my thermo died. Any recs for a new one? I’m in a city so can’t do a full Davis station due to buildings around me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 6 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: 26/17 here. Are you not on the Wunderground Network with your rig? Maybe it is against the rules for a Coop to be listed? I am not but have 3-4 others within 5 miles of me that are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 3 minutes ago, bubbler86 said: Are you not on the Wunderground Network with your rig? Maybe it is against the rules for a Coop to be listed? I am not but have 3-4 others within 5 miles of me that are. Here’s a link to my cwop station https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?sid=E5637 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 1 minute ago, Cashtown_Coop said: Here’s a link to my cwop station https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?sid=E5637 Very cool. I was looking to see what your humidty was over the last few hours and that shows it all! I was surprised I was so low...I am at 47% still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 1 minute ago, bubbler86 said: Very cool. I was looking to see what your humidty was over the last few hours and that shows it all! I was surprised I was so low...I am at 47% still. I have 2 stations I use so sometimes I average the numbers. I have a rainwise mkIII and a davis vp2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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