djr5001 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Looking at the hourly 12z euro panels - looks like best snowfall is expected from 9am-1pm around @MAG5035 and best for western LSV from 10am-2pm and eastern LSV 11am-3pm before mixing begins to change p-type. What I see from these 12z runs is that the Euro brings the precip further north into PA similar to the NAM but is slower than the NAM to changeover. The GFS is actually slower to warm aloft (occurring later in afternoon similar to Euro) than the NAM but is lacking in the northern into PA precip department until its too late. This 12z euro run verbatim would be probably the best event to include most of this forum that we have seen in a while lol. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Just now, daxx said: I know we are focused on this event for tomorrow but the Euro really just went big for next Tuesday night into Wednesday! Too bad it is a week away! You had me at "Next week!". Really hoping tomorrow is not the end. I know we will lose much of the pack a few days after but love having more MR threats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, bubbler86 said: Final call... Been watching (and posting!) a lot of models the last 3 days to try and derive how they depict moisture getting up into the PA area. It seems the trend is for two general blobs of moisture with one mostly bypassing us to the south and the other concentrating in the southern half of PA (if you toss the Nam's depiction which is much different). Jetstream maps seem to keep the entrance regions of the jet steak a bit north of PA so it comes down to frontogenesis and qpf being thrown over our cold dome. My opinion is that S Central PA is in the bullseye right now especially near the MD line so…all of this is before ice. The Euro has about 1.5" of qpf for most of us so there is a lot of ice (and some rain) on top of this. @Cashtown_Coop, @bubbler86 7-9" with some near one foot totals near the area. @MAG5035 6-8" @CarlislePaWx @Blizzard of 93 5-7" @canderson @djr5001 @sauss06, @2001kx, @paweather, @daxx, @Voyager 4-6" @Wmsptwx @pasnownut, @pawatch 3-5" Nice Bubbler. Good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 5 minutes ago, bubbler86 said: Final call... Been watching (and posting!) a lot of models the last 3 days to try and derive how they depict moisture getting up into the PA area. It seems the trend is for two general blobs of moisture with one mostly bypassing us to the south and the other concentrating in the southern half of PA (if you toss the Nam's depiction which is much different). Jetstream maps seem to keep the entrance regions of the jet steak a bit north of PA so it comes down to frontogenesis and qpf being thrown over our cold dome. My opinion is that S Central PA is in the bullseye right now especially near the MD line so…all of this is before ice. The Euro has about 1.5" of qpf for most of us so there is a lot of ice (and some rain) on top of this. @Cashtown_Coop, @bubbler86 7-9" with some near one foot totals near the area. @MAG5035 6-8" @CarlislePaWx @Blizzard of 93 5-7" @canderson @djr5001 @sauss06, @2001kx, @paweather, @daxx, @Voyager 4-6" @Wmsptwx @pasnownut, @pawatch 3-5" Nice I'll take that and like it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Just now, daxx said: Nice I'll take that and like it! I am waiting for Blizzard to notice that I gave him an extra inch than his neighbors. He gets one extra for forum enthusiam! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 someone needs to post the hr240 euro snowmap for entertainment purposes lol - gives eastern PA 1-2 feet and some spots in NE 2-3 feet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 6 minutes ago, bubbler86 said: I am waiting for Blizzard to notice that I gave him an extra inch than his neighbors. He gets one extra for forum enthusiam! Thanks man ! I hope we all do well ! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 I know we are focused on this event for tomorrow but the Euro really just went big for next Tuesday night into Wednesday! Too bad it is a week away!Me like!!. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 12 minutes ago, bubbler86 said: You had me at "Next week!". Really hoping tomorrow is not the end. I know we will lose much of the pack a few days after but love having more MR threats. Did you see the rest of the 12z GFS run for the first week of March? I know it’s the GFS, but that would be awesome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 1 minute ago, Superstorm said: Me like!! . Thats BS, I am fringed. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Just now, Superstorm said: Me like!! . Nice! It makes sense with the SOI at -43 today & over a week in very negative numbers. The MJO moving from phase 8-1-2 will also help the pattern next week & beyond! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 3 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Thanks man ! I hope we all do well ! Great stuff you 2! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 4 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Did you see the rest of the 12z GFS run for the first week of March? I know it’s the GFS, but that would be awesome! I just looked at it....like a Choo CHoo Train of chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Off topic from the storm, but I just noticed we are the number 1 thread, for replies and views, in the Upstate NY/PA sub forum. May have been there before but had not noticed....you bunch of talkative SOB's! LOL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 If winds can calm around sunset - tonight is a great example of sites like York airport (KTHV) that will see temperatures drop 5-10 degrees in the hour surrounding sunset (check 5pm and 6pm obs). With dew points this low and starting the night with clear skies (and hopefully calm winds), most of the region should have no trouble seeing temperatures dip into the mid to lower 20s fairly early tonight before the cloud cover arrives ahead of the start of the event. The event last week had us hovering around the low 30s leading into the start of the event, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 19, 2019 Author Share Posted February 19, 2019 That long range storm on the Euro is about the timeframe where we should be seeing the much awaited pattern change that might deliver threats from a much more traditional alignment. That cutter we look poised to endure over the weekend might be a catalyst to change our pattern alignment. PNA forecast to finally reverse in the next 6-10 days with the MJO wandering around P8. The SOI has also went off a cliff, now at -7.84 on the 30 day average and today's daily contribution was -43.61. One would think the stage appears to be set for perhaps an active first half of March. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Timing for this tomorrow is a nightmare scenario for schools/employers. Snow doesn't seem to get heavy in the HBG area until the mid morning and then ramp up and then to ice - so do you cancel with nothing on the ground and just cross fingers for nothing to go wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Just now, canderson said: Timing for this tomorrow is a nightmare scenario for schools/employers. Snow doesn't seem to get heavy in the HBG area until the mid morning and then ramp up and then to ice - so do you cancel with nothing on the ground and just cross fingers for nothing to go wrong? I think they have to cancel if there is a WSW and whatever forecaster they use is predicting snow and Ice into that night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 6 minutes ago, djr5001 said: If winds can calm around sunset - tonight is a great example of sites like York airport (KTHV) that will see temperatures drop 5-10 degrees in the hour surrounding sunset (check 5pm and 6pm obs). With dew points this low and starting the night with clear skies (and hopefully calm winds), most of the region should have no trouble seeing temperatures dip into the mid to lower 20s fairly early tonight before the cloud cover arrives ahead of the start of the event. The event last week had us hovering around the low 30s leading into the start of the event, correct? I reemember doing some posts on the temps and DP's as that system approached ast week. Not going to dig it out but yea I think both will be 3-5 degrees colder at onset this time. I remember mentioning Sayre and saying temps would be in the low 20's....this time temps would be around 17 up there from where our funnel would be coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 4 minutes ago, bubbler86 said: I think they have to cancel if there is a WSW and whatever forecaster they use is predicting snow and Ice into that night. Forecast maps were just updated so I have a feeling the warnings are incoming at any moment now. They now have Carlisle and Lebanon in a 6-8" range with Harrisburg, York, Lancaster, Johnstown, Altoona, State College, Pottsville, and more all at 4-6" plus ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 and just like that Winter Storm Warnings have been issued 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 19, 2019 Author Share Posted February 19, 2019 Just now, djr5001 said: Forecast maps were just updated so I have a feeling the warnings are incoming at any moment now. They now have Carlisle and Lebanon in a 6-8" range with Harrisburg, York, Lancaster, Johnstown, Altoona, State College, Pottsville, and more all at 4-6" plus ice Yea just issued, watch area to warnings and rest of CWA advisories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 1 minute ago, djr5001 said: and just like that Winter Storm Warnings have been issued Yes indeed! Winter Storm Warning URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 234 PM EST Tue Feb 19 2019 PAZ027-028-056-057-059-063>066-200745- /O.UPG.KCTP.WS.A.0003.190220T1100Z-190221T1100Z/ /O.NEW.KCTP.WS.W.0003.190220T1100Z-190221T1100Z/ Mifflin-Juniata-Perry-Dauphin-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York- Lancaster- Including the cities of Lewistown, Mifflintown, Newport, Harrisburg, Hershey, Lebanon, Carlisle, Gettysburg, York, and Lancaster 234 PM EST Tue Feb 19 2019 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow, then heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet accumulations of 4 to 6 inches, with localized amounts up to 8 inches, and ice accumulations of one tenth to two tenths of an inch are expected. * WHERE...Portions of South-Central Pennsylvania. * WHEN...The heaviest snow will fall at a rate of 1 to 2 inches per hour for 4 to 5 hours during the late morning and early afternoon hours, before changing to sleet during the afternoon, then over to lighter freezing rain by Wednesday evening. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on difficult travel conditions, including during the morning commute on Wednesday. Be prepared for significant reductions in visibility at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 16 minutes ago, bubbler86 said: I think they have to cancel if there is a WSW and whatever forecaster they use is predicting snow and Ice into that night. agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 12 minutes ago, djr5001 said: Forecast maps were just updated so I have a feeling the warnings are incoming at any moment now. They now have Carlisle and Lebanon in a 6-8" range with Harrisburg, York, Lancaster, Johnstown, Altoona, State College, Pottsville, and more all at 4-6" plus ice is the ice still .4? Edit- disregard, i just saw it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 1 to 3 and under .1 of ice the call for up here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, sauss06 said: is the ice still .4? currently says 0.1" to 0.2" ice for Harrisburg area 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 6 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: 1 to 3 and under .1 of ice the call for up here. FYI, that forecast I did for you and PAwatch...I was hedging my bets a bit and taking a blend of the NAM into consideration to mesh the GFS depcition of 2-3 and Nam's of much higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 I like yours better lol. Thanks man. And I was saying nws not my own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 19 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: I like yours better lol. Thanks man. And I was saying nws not my own. The latest Nam still says 8-12 for you so something is going to bust badly. The Nam is on its own in having orientation of the WAA surge go more North East vs. more East to West track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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