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Central PA - Jan/Feb 2019 Obs and Discussion


MAG5035
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image.png.b7db96b7707dc5ff9ef8d6badece6aa3.png

 

FV3 also looking more NAM/Euroish.  These maps are from pivotal weather and supposedly are mostly snow but I am not 100% trusting of any of them as the depth maps do not always match to the point of them being too different. I can tell from the different column temps that most of us would be snow for at least 6 hours. 

 

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3 minutes ago, canderson said:

NAM vs GFS/Euro blend. Who ya got?!

The Euro is probably the best compromise of the two. NAM might be a little too amped up north. The GFS still focuses best snows in western/central MD, WV mountains and Northern VA. The Euro has it's best snow swath along the southern 1/3 to 1/2 of PA, which is probably closer to the NAM in terms of best snow axis. The NAM seems to really have a heavy front shot of snow, which I think is where the higher amounts are coming from.  I like CTP's watch placement for now, I mentioned first thing this morning that I figured they would consider bottom two tiers up for watches and that's where we're at this afternoon. I also thought Horst's map was a pretty good take.  

However significant our winter weather impacts end up being, I love the fact that this is our 500mb map at game time.

ecmwfued-hgt--namerica-54-C-500hgtanom.thumb.png.d582f3aee32525f65a82d9a89af3dbc4.png

 

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-48hours .10-.75 " not much confidence in the p type or timing of them. By the time we hit -24  a real surface map, radar  trained eye and common sense  is all you need period. every thing past that is overreaching its 2019 capability's and just causing confusion and doubt. I blame outdated computer concepts but maybe its the idiosyncrasy's and laziness of human behavior to blame. I don't want a glass half empty or half full when Bio Systems can fill the whole damb thing the whole why up. That said I hope those of you working hard and with passion with the tools we have nail this storm down and we all make out well for the rest of winter.   

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6 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

The Euro is probably the best compromise of the two. NAM might be a little too amped up north. The GFS still focuses best snows in western/central MD, WV mountains and Northern VA. The Euro has it's best snow swath along the southern 1/3 to 1/2 of PA, which is probably closer to the NAM in terms of best snow axis. The NAM seems to really have a heavy front shot of snow, which I think is where the higher amounts are coming from.  I like CTP's watch placement for now, I mentioned first thing this morning that I figured they would consider bottom two tiers up for watches and that's where we're at this afternoon. I also thought Horst's map was a pretty good take.  

However significant our winter weather impacts end up being, I love the fact that this is our 500mb map at game time.

ecmwfued-hgt--namerica-54-C-500hgtanom.thumb.png.d582f3aee32525f65a82d9a89af3dbc4.png

 

MAG do you think KPIT eeks out 4 or 5 or do you think the warm air is gonna win out as usual. 

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NAM vs GFS/Euro blend. Who ya got?!

I’ll never forget January 2016 when the NAM through up, what we all thought were absurd snow totals, and wouldn’t budge, as the EURO and GFS danced all around and finally caved. I remember the SREFs average really trending towards the NAM which caught my eye that both the NAM & ensemble were in lock step.


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1 hour ago, MAG5035 said:

The Euro is probably the best compromise of the two. NAM might be a little too amped up north. The GFS still focuses best snows in western/central MD, WV mountains and Northern VA. The Euro has it's best snow swath along the southern 1/3 to 1/2 of PA, which is probably closer to the NAM in terms of best snow axis. The NAM seems to really have a heavy front shot of snow, which I think is where the higher amounts are coming from.  I like CTP's watch placement for now, I mentioned first thing this morning that I figured they would consider bottom two tiers up for watches and that's where we're at this afternoon. I also thought Horst's map was a pretty good take.  

However significant our winter weather impacts end up being, I love the fact that this is our 500mb map at game time.

ecmwfued-hgt--namerica-54-C-500hgtanom.thumb.png.d582f3aee32525f65a82d9a89af3dbc4.png

 

All this time (MA LR thread) fighting to find a way away from this look and here we are in the cusp of what could potentially be the biggest snow of the season for some and we make do with it anyway.  All we needed was a weak low to open the Gulf firehose and spray it over our transient cold dome. 

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2 hours ago, MAG5035 said:

12z and now 18z NAM really making this event a PA thing. Broad area of 6"+ with 6" line reaching all the way to IPT. 

This snowmap doesn't include sleet/ice in its snow amounts. Snow maps with Cobb and Kuchera method were similar to this.

nam-null--usne-54-C-new_snowtotk_whitecounty-1.thumb.png.7b51fa62f226604e9c26ad66e7a03a80.png

 

That works.  Thanks Mag.  

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50 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

MAG do you think KPIT eeks out 4 or 5 or do you think the warm air is gonna win out as usual. 

The warm air will probably win out there as per usual but I think they have a decent shot at a few inches up front at least. Most of the model suite seems pretty supportive of that idea with the GFS being least so and the 18z NAM giving Pit a 6"+ event. To me this looks like a better setup for Pittsburgh metro than last week's storm. We don't have a strong defined low pressure to the lakes (there is still a low going west) and we have what should be a pretty sizeable wave of Gulf Moisture attacking the high pressure. This should deliver frozen up front in Pittsburgh and perhaps a pretty big portion of SW PA. 

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2 hours ago, MAG5035 said:

12z and now 18z NAM really making this event a PA thing. Broad area of 6"+ with 6" line reaching all the way to IPT. 

This snowmap doesn't include sleet/ice in its snow amounts. Snow maps with Cobb and Kuchera method were similar to this.

nam-null--usne-54-C-new_snowtotk_whitecounty-1.thumb.png.7b51fa62f226604e9c26ad66e7a03a80.png

 

I agree that the NAM & Euro combo will lead the way on this storm.

Here are a few more NAM maps with various ratios.

42816AFD-C709-41A9-9326-EB85F2A8ACD2.png

D3BBC6E2-037C-45E0-BEB8-10623F07029A.png

51E5CA5B-E88D-42AB-85E4-CAD0EBEF8660.png

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2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

I think the southern half of PA is in a great spot for this storm.

Yep, me as well.  This reminds me of a mini version of some of those over perform 1-2 foot storms over the last ten years (which I had to watch on from the south!).   I have fun making predictions but this really will be a nowcast storm as to who gets 4" and who gets 12"

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7 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

I'm gonna end up with a double ice layer snowpack. You can walk on top of the 4-5" pack that's already on the ground without breaking through. 

Toughest ice pack I can ever remember was one back in January 2008. I drove a Mack Granite tri-axle dump truck with a steel dump body back then. The thing weighed 28,000 lbs empty, and when I drove into the quarry where I was supposed to pick up a load, I rode on top of the unplowed ice pack. It was amazing. Needless to say, the quarry folks sent all the trucks back home that morning...

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15 minutes ago, Voyager said:

Toughest ice pack I can ever remember was one back in January 2008. I drove a Mack Granite tri-axle dump truck with a steel dump body back then. The thing weighed 28,000 lbs empty, and when I drove into the quarry where I was supposed to pick up a load, I rode on top of the unplowed ice pack. It was amazing. Needless to say, the quarry folks sent all the trucks back home that morning...

Used to be an avid backpacker...and we did a weekend jaunt from Poe Valley over to RB Winter.  It was about this time of the year.  The south facing mountains were doable/bare.  The north facing sides were glaciers!  We had to slide down several with our packs under us...unreal.  Saw some old timer at his cabin down near the tunnel at Cherry Run and he told us..."worst ice I've ever seen in my life here"!  And it was a dense glacier to be sure!  I'm not quite sure of the year, but I want to say 2001 or 2002?

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