Wmsptwx Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 It's Feb....were in go time so I'm just rooting for the nam and it just makes more sense...but who knows anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 i want the ground frozen, or dried up. I'm sick of Phucking mud 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Just now, sauss06 said: i want the ground frozen, or dried up. I'm sick of Phucking mud Dude this year is unreal with it, our driveway when unfrozen is literally a Marsh swamp. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 All these models have been struggling with this pattern we have had this winter. Including the forecasters. Somebody should see a good front end bump of snow, it's all going to come down to how long the cold sticks around. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 1 minute ago, Wmsptwx said: Dude this year is unreal with it, our driveway when unfrozen is literally a Marsh swamp. Yup. 2018 just swung right into '19. The ground hasn't been frozen much. at least when we have a couple inches of snow, the dog doesn't rip the yard up, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 19 minutes ago, pawatch said: All these models have been struggling with this pattern we have had this winter. Including the forecasters. Somebody should see a good front end bump of snow, it's all going to come down to how long the cold sticks around. Thinking of you want more than half a foot of snow you need to go south, nearly to VA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Mehhhhhh it'll be north at go time and they'll all be crying like usual. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 For those that are interested in model verification there is another article linked below that discuses some of the pros and cons with the FV3 right now. Although it is scoring better than the GFS there are understandably a lot of worries about making it the official American model. It has a tendency to over amp storms especially in the mid range. In watching it this winter I would say it is much more consistent that the GFS in that it does not bounce around from run to run. In terms of actual weather and results I am not sure any model should have too much confidence placed in it. Even the HRRR has been tripping up this year. These scores are World scores in that it is for weather all over the globe. When it comes down to forecasting North Eastern US snow storms the Farmers almanac is probably in the running for the best. https://arstechnica.com/science/2018/10/noaa-is-about-to-make-some-big-changes-to-its-global-weather-model/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 50 minutes ago, sauss06 said: Yup. 2018 just swung right into '19. The ground hasn't been frozen much. at least when we have a couple inches of snow, the dog doesn't rip the yard up, My yard and hardwood floor says otherwise. mudfest already in full effect. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Euro looks to be a 3-6” storm for basically the entire subforum. Gets heavier the more W/SWyou go. MDT around 4” or so I’d guess. Laurels and MAG highest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Well the 12Z Euro basically held serve...maybe a tad less but if anything the max's are north in Central PA. Still on for 4-8" snowfall for most in PA. At this point the GFS should probably be questioned. Should see Winter Storm Watches this afternoon as they totals are just the snow side...additional ice on top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Euro snow depth which is the best predictor of accumulation for me...the snow maps are too spotty. Note that areas north of the LSV already have snow on the ground so this is most useful, for this storm, for the LSV. General 6-8" for NW LSV when done. 4-6 most of the rest of the LSV...a tad less far east. Lots of ice afterwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 3 minutes ago, canderson said: Euro looks to be a 3-6” storm for basically the entire subforum. Gets heavier the more W/SWyou go. MDT around 4” or so I’d guess. Laurels and MAG highest. This run is slower to push the early heavier precip our way and pushes the warm air aloft in faster so we changeover earlier in the afternoon. A couple inches whether it ends up being 2” or 6”+ then ice is going to be messy regardless. The cold will hold at the surface but no way it holds aloft - much like last week’s event. Our high for Thursday is currently 47 - fresh snow and ice is not going to let it reach that. NWS doesn’t seem to have much confidence in how much precip the NAM drops across southern PA in a short period of time. They also seem to be holding off on any watches because of the GFS/GEFS/SREFs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Well, at least I'm scheduled off on Wednesday. Thursday morning may be a different story. Run from Hazleton down through Jim Thorpe to Palmerton, then down to Sands Casino in Bethlehem. The first part from Hazleton to Palmerton is going to be (d)icy...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Whoops, I jumped the gun on the snow map. Checked it before the snow was done. 6-8" for much of the LSV for 4-6 for rest...lollipop of 8-12 over Cashtown. Some of this may be sleet but NWS should be safe calling for 5+ plus region wide for the whole Susquehanna valley. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 26 minutes ago, bubbler86 said: Whoops, I jumped the gun on the snow map. Checked it before the snow was done. 6-8" for much of the LSV for 4-6 for rest...lollipop of 8-12 over Cashtown. Some of this may be sleet but NWS should be safe calling for 5+ plus region wide for the whole Susquehanna valley. can you help me out with timing? I orginally thought late Tuesday, but now i think Wednesday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 13 minutes ago, sauss06 said: can you help me out with timing? I orginally thought late Tuesday, but now i think Wednesday morning. On the road but I was thinking wed am as well. Last time I looked at it specifically I would have guess 8 to 10am in Harrisburg but did not look at timing on the euro if is slowed down a bit like djr mentioned. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Lets go Euro!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 27 minutes ago, sauss06 said: can you help me out with timing? I orginally thought late Tuesday, but now i think Wednesday morning. Yes, rush hour Wed. morn.....ish Just posted WSW for LSV. btw 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Somerset-Johnstown-Altoona-Chambersburg 3-5” with localized 7” and with 0.1-0.2” ice Harrisburg - Hershey - Carlisle - York - Lancaster and surrounding area 3-5” with up to 0.25” ice @Voyager ‘s Schuylkill snow hole - 2-4” and up to 0.25” ice edit - sorry accidentally deleted that this was from the WSW text 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 8 minutes ago, djr5001 said: Somerset-Johnstown-Altoona-Chambersburg 3-5” with localized 7” and with 0.1-0.2” ice Harrisburg - Hershey - Carlisle - York - Lancaster and surrounding area 3-5” with up to 0.25” ice @Voyager ‘s Schuylkill snow hole - 2-4” and up to 0.25” ice serious question as i know you keep records. When was the last time we were to get .25 ice and we got it? seems like a long time ago we had .25 of ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 3 minutes ago, Superstorm said: . This would send the entire MA subforum off the Key bridge. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Here is CTP’s current forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 21 minutes ago, sauss06 said: serious question as i know you keep records. When was the last time we were to get .25 ice and we got it? seems like a long time ago we had .25 of ice MDT reported 0.24” back in mid November - the morning of the 16th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 25 minutes ago, Superstorm said: . Seems like a pretty good call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 46 minutes ago, djr5001 said: Somerset-Johnstown-Altoona-Chambersburg 3-5” with localized 7” and with 0.1-0.2” ice Harrisburg - Hershey - Carlisle - York - Lancaster and surrounding area 3-5” with up to 0.25” ice @Voyager ‘s Schuylkill snow hole - 2-4” and up to 0.25” ice Glad we have another predict. Hated being the only one. I might make a final call tonight after I see 12z Nam's thoughts precip type/how much intrusion of warm air especially down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Woot 2 inches baby 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 40 minutes ago, canderson said: This would send the entire MA subforum off the Key bridge. **** em 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 36 minutes ago, bubbler86 said: Glad we have another predict. Hated being the only one. I might make a final call tonight after I see 12z Nam's thoughts precip type/how much intrusion of warm air especially down here. Oops couldn’t get it to paste right so it deleted the start of what my message had when I deleted it but that was from the text for the WSW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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