Blizzard of 93 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 2 hours ago, MAG5035 said: There are some shades to last Tuesday's storm with regards to the Wednesday event progged. There is a fairly decent high progged, although in this present case it seems the high may help keep the best precip more south in our region. I guess that's what ended up happening to a degree with Tuesday's system as well, where the best precipitation ended up in the western and southern portions of PA. This system doesn't have a very defined low pressure center progged right now though like the last one, so we could be talking more of a defined QPF difference as the best precip may get into the southern tier and push out instead of up. Models do show an initial push of precip over pretty much the whole area so not talking anyone getting shut out. The warm push aloft seems more defined with this system, at least at 850mb. We lose 850mb pretty easily after perhaps some front end snow. Like last time though, the 925mb level holds fast, esp in the central counties but it holds up awhile in the LSV too. So this is likely to be another messy event on tap for us in the p-type department. This winter is starting to remind me of the late 90s(esp 98-99) and 2007-2008, 2008-2009.. where it seemed like we couldn't buy a clean snow event. And those were La-Nina winters. I still think late month and getting into March is where we're going to see if our MJO/SOI influence in the favorable phases has legs. Knocking back a SE ridge isn't necessarily an immediate thing and it especially isn't so when the western trough remains a big player. That we have opportunities for non-rain precipitation this week should be considered a win. The SOI daily contribution number today was -24. That makes it 6 days in a row this week that the SOI has been a double digit negative number, including 3 days that were over -20 or better, & 2 other days that were -19. Most models are showing the MJO taking a slow track through phase 8 & the Euro is taking it into phase 1 later this month. Most of the time there is about a 1 week or so lag until the effects of the SOI & MJO impact our pattern in North America. Do you guys think that the EPS & GEFS will respond to these impacts over the next few days & show a better pattern for late February & early March ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 2 hours ago, bubbler86 said: May get nammed around 9:30 this evening. Tomorrow Evenings storm looks like it is a little more robust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 1 hour ago, pawatch said: Tomorrow Evenings storm looks like it is a little more robust. Yea, on the NAM TT snow maps show 2-4" but I would think it would mostly be ice. A healthy .25 to .5 qpf. Time for a WWA. Just checked the column and can see 500MB is probably too warm for snow when the qpf is here. This convo is specific to tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Well the 12Z Nam does not appear to be routing out the cold air as quickly for mid week. Moderate snow has already invaded the S/W part of the LSV at 84 and it appears to be advancing. A big snow in Central VA. 6-10" there. Question in extrapolating will be whether the energy and WAA that produced the MECS down there will die out a bit as it runs into drier air. Next model out goes farther in time and I connot wait to see it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Globals generally show a 2-6" snowfall followed by ice for the Eastern 1/2 of the state midweek. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 50 minutes ago, bubbler86 said: Globals generally show a 2-6" snowfall followed by ice for the Eastern 1/2 of the state midweek. Yes, the good precip seems to be arriving earlier on Wednesday with most of the 0z models tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 The 0z Euro improved the front end thump of snow on Wednesday. It brought in heavy precip shortly after the onset around 7-8 am for the LSV. Then the mixing with sleet & freezing rain begins in the afternoon on Wednesday & ice continues until evening. Here are the 0z Euro regular 10-1 & Kuchera snow maps. I would sign up for 4-8 inches of snow on Wednesday in the LSV ! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Today’s daily SOI contribution was -29 . This makes 7 days in a row that it has been negative & this is the best number yet this week. The pattern should respond by next week to the SOI impact. Also, the MJO phase 8 & 1 should help improve our pattern towards the end of the month & into early March. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 The 12z NAM brings a solid wintry mix to CTP by late afternoon or early evening. The snow maps for the NAM always run high, but it did trend colder with more snow than the 6z run, for what it’s worth. CTP, for tonight, put up an advisory for mixed precip for up to an inch of snow in the LSV, with more to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 6 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The 12z NAM brings a solid wintry mix to CTP by late afternoon or early evening. The snow maps for the NAM always run high, but it did trend colder with more snow than the 6z run, for what it’s worth. CTP, for tonight, put up an advisory for mixed precip for up to an inch of snow in the LSV, with more to the north. I would bet this snow map is more realty than 1-3" area wide. More ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 5 minutes ago, bubbler86 said: I would bet this snow map is more realty than 1-3" area wide. More ice. I think the answer is in between the 2 maps. Either way, even a minor amount of mixed precip can cause trouble on the roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 12Z Nam is an LSV special for mid week. 4-8" (highest in Adams county, surprise!...Not! Check out how that finger of 6-8" reach down to @Cashtown_Coop) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Just now, Blizzard of 93 said: I think the answer is in between the 2 maps. Either way, even a minor amount of mixed precip can cause trouble on the roads. No doubt I am not speaking down to the event just not sure we see real accumulating snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Just now, Blizzard of 93 said: I think the answer is in between the 2 maps. Either way, even a minor amount of mixed precip can cause trouble on the roads. Yup. And I have to be in State College at 3:45pm this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Just now, Voyager said: Yup. And I have to be in State College at 3:45pm this afternoon. Dew points are in the teens, so temps should drop when precip begins. Precip type will probably depend on rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 17 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Dew points are in the teens, so temps should drop when precip begins. Precip type will probably depend on rates. I'm just hoping the group is ready to load, and we can roll out before the flakes fly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 This is the 0Z Euro snow depth map. Surprised me seeing with 8-12 again for some. Evolving situation here...no system really winding up to the west so the CAD, at all levels, is holding strong on the progs right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 The bulk of Wed/Thur storm appears to be southern tier. With Pitt getting the shaft. According to the Nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Euro looking good for WEDNESDAY event.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 6 minutes ago, Superstorm said: Euro looking good for WEDNESDAY event. . Yes, The 12z Euro is Southern PA jackpot! The front end thump comes in strong & targets us with the best precip as snow before we flip to ice later on Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 8 minutes ago, Superstorm said: Euro looking good for WEDNESDAY event. . What's the kuchera say. Cant trust a 10:1 ratio map especially when you guys are dealing with CAD. I fully expect my area to feel the effects of the warm tongue on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 The 12z GEFS also improved again for southern PA for Wednesday! The mean snow amount increased by an inch or two from the previous run. There are several good snow hits among the individual ensemble members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: What's the kuchera say. Cant trust a 10:1 ratio map especially when you guys are dealing with CAD. I fully expect my area to feel the effects of the warm tongue on this one. Here is the 12z Euro Kuchera ratio map. Those 9’s around Harrisburg should be 6’s. @psuhoffman just had a good post in the Mid Atlantic forum basically saying that, for this storm, it may be better to trust the 10-1 ratio maps instead of Kuchera. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Cold air is much better entrenched than last event.Should be a good thump of moderate to heavy snow over to sleet and freezing rain event before ending.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 2 hours ago, pawatch said: The bulk of Wed/Thur storm appears to be southern tier. With Pitt getting the shaft. According to the Nam. Euro wallops Pitt so even they are still in this game...not often that happens. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Hard to tell with the NAM clown maps on TT but would guess 18Z is 6-10" of snow for much of PA followed by major sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdskidoo Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 16 minutes ago, bubbler86 said: Hard to tell with the NAM clown maps on TT but would guess 18Z is 6-10" of snow for much of PA followed by major sleet. I always prefer all snow events, but I'd be happy with that scenario. I haven't seen a good sleet storm in quite a few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Looks like 5 to 10 inches of snow over to heavy sleet.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 14 minutes ago, Superstorm said: Looks like 5 to 10 inches of snow over to heavy sleet. . Boy would it be nice to have an event trend better for once this year..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 2 hours ago, bubbler86 said: Euro wallops Pitt so even they are still in this game...not often that happens. Big flakes falling right now. Also was at the farm show building for motorama yesterday...Anyone from here go? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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