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Central PA - Jan/Feb 2019 Obs and Discussion


MAG5035
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12 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Yes, I think we will at least get to average seasonal snow total. 

MDT is currently about 4 inches above normal snow through today’s date.

If MDT finishes below normal with the pattern being shown in the mid term models (no more 10-15 days out, we should be seeing threats in the 5-10 day frame) then it will be a spectacular fail by these same models.   MDT should be getting at least 10 more inches over the second half of the month if just 1 or 2 of the Choo Choo Train of storms works out.

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We are now back to a mix some sleet frz rain a little snow. this makes me think I know why we end up having sleep frz rain cause the air it falls through is above freezing then goes back below freezing. but how does it end up snowing sleeting and frz rain all a the same time? I never heard a legit explanation or any for the matter on this. Normally they just say when its all snow its or all sleet or all frz rain and show the graphic of the freezing column.

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6 minutes ago, Ruin said:

We are now back to a mix some sleet frz rain a little snow. this makes me think I know why we end up having sleep frz rain cause the air it falls through is above freezing then goes back below freezing. but how does it end up snowing sleeting and frz rain all a the same time? I never heard a legit explanation or any for the matter on this. Normally they just say when its all snow its or all sleet or all frz rain and show the graphic of the freezing column.

I was just out, and its pouring sleet and accumulating 

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1 hour ago, bubbler86 said:

I have pretty much stopped looking at the FV3.  I guess if all else shows bad I will look at it for any clue of a different outcome.  You mentioned storm path and amde me think of an off shoot thought that any of the models I look at I do view the 500MB maps and do some extrapolating to try and figure out what the model is trying to predict but not as much as you do or or the MA LR/500MB map discussion thread.  There is a definitely a science to it and trying to match 500MB profiles with actual surface results is a valid forecast method but I think too much time is wasted in that field and in reading AFD's you do not see mention of it as much any more.   

Thats what makes this fun.  We all have "strengths" to add to the discussion, and learn from each other. 

If i have a strength, i'd say I'm better at mid/long range than short.  I'm getting better w/ thermal profiles and meso features, but in truth, its just a semi educated guess for me though, and I'd not try to claim otherwise.

  

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33 minutes ago, Ruin said:

We are now back to a mix some sleet frz rain a little snow. this makes me think I know why we end up having sleep frz rain cause the air it falls through is above freezing then goes back below freezing. but how does it end up snowing sleeting and frz rain all a the same time? I never heard a legit explanation or any for the matter on this. Normally they just say when its all snow its or all sleet or all frz rain and show the graphic of the freezing column.

dynamic cooling and the "mixing" in the mid levels of the atmoshphere (700-850-925Mb).  As temps are marginal, you will see during peak precip that the column cools just enough to support all types. Look at the sounding below and you see the warm nose to the right of 0 (bottom of graph - then look to the left for the layers of the atmosphere at 700-800Mb and you see it goes above 0.  That is enough to melt the snow, but during good precip, it can be overcome and hold all frozen precip types.  nam4km_2019021212_003_40.89--76.28.png

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30 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

I was just out, and its pouring sleet and accumulating 

i was out cause my silly dad always shovels snow right around the time we get frz rain its just silly if you ask me. id rather walk on snow covered in a crust of ice vs ice on sidewalk only. but for me we have a dry slot for the 30-50 mins i was out.

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Hi guys again.  Back up.  My temp unfortunately has just gone above 32 to reach 32.2F, thus ending the potential for freezing rain (more or less).  However, there has definitely been sleet.  My wife shoveled a little bit of our front sidewalk back around 8:00 and it is currently covered in sleet (it's white).  I was initially thinking it had snowed again but then I opened the door and heard the pinging.  I'd say there had to be at least 0.3" of sleet to make the walk look white.  I'm going to add that to my snow totals.  The pinging is picking back up again.  I hear it from inside.

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8 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

look at what i posted above.  I did that for you.

 

He was referring to my comment about the zr stopping here now that I went above 32.0.

1 minute ago, Ruin said:

it was said hitting 32.2 can still freeze tho its only at 32.9 where the action of freezing stops if memory servers 

Yes, that is why I said "more or less".  I didn't mean exactly that zr could not still accumulate.  BTW, I'm now 32.4.

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7 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

Question for Blizz or djr...

Does the NWS count sleet as snow in its snowfall measurements?  I've forgotten.  I mentioned I was going to add the 0.3" of sleet I had to my 1.0" of snow since midnight (making my snowfall measurement 1.3"), but I won't do that if that's not the official way it's measured.

I know the answer but I'll let them share.......:P

 

Ok no I wont.  From the NWS weenie snow measure guide.  See in bold  

https://www.weather.gov/media/ffc/snow_measurement_guidelines.pdf

 

'Measuring Snowfall Snowfall is measured to the nearest tenth of an inch. Measure the greatest amount of snowfall that has accumulated on your snowboard since the last observation. You can measure on a wooden deck or ground if a snowboard is not available. Snowfall should not be measured more than 4 times in 24 hours. You can measure the hourly snowfall rate, but do not clean off your board each hour. Only clean off the board when you take one of the four daily measurements. Once the snow ends, add up the measurements from each time the snowboard was cleaned to reach a storm total. Special cases: - Snow falls and accumulates on the snowboard, but then melts. In this case, the snowfall is the greatest depth of snow observed on the board before it begins to melt. If this occurs several times, measure the snowfall after each snow shower and add each measurement for the total snowfall. - Snow falls and melts continuously on the board. In this case, if the snow never reaches a depth of a tenth of an inch, then a trace of snowfall is recorded. - Snow has blown or drifted onto the snowboard. In this case, take several measurements from around the yard where the snow has not drifted, being careful only to measure new snow. Take an average of the various measurements to arrive at a total. - Sleet counts towards total snowfall, freezing rain accumulation does not.''

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3 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

I know the answer but I'll let them share.......:P

 

Ok no I wont.  From the NWS weenie snow measure guide.  See in bold  

https://www.weather.gov/media/ffc/snow_measurement_guidelines.pdf

 

'Measuring Snowfall Snowfall is measured to the nearest tenth of an inch. Measure the greatest amount of snowfall that has accumulated on your snowboard since the last observation. You can measure on a wooden deck or ground if a snowboard is not available. Snowfall should not be measured more than 4 times in 24 hours. You can measure the hourly snowfall rate, but do not clean off your board each hour. Only clean off the board when you take one of the four daily measurements. Once the snow ends, add up the measurements from each time the snowboard was cleaned to reach a storm total. Special cases: - Snow falls and accumulates on the snowboard, but then melts. In this case, the snowfall is the greatest depth of snow observed on the board before it begins to melt. If this occurs several times, measure the snowfall after each snow shower and add each measurement for the total snowfall. - Snow falls and melts continuously on the board. In this case, if the snow never reaches a depth of a tenth of an inch, then a trace of snowfall is recorded. - Snow has blown or drifted onto the snowboard. In this case, take several measurements from around the yard where the snow has not drifted, being careful only to measure new snow. Take an average of the various measurements to arrive at a total. - Sleet counts towards total snowfall, freezing rain accumulation does not.''

Thank you, nut!!:snowing:

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