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January 24 - 31 Cold Blast


MNstorms
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36 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

GFS at 12z Wednesday

 

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Just simply amazing to see that level of cold with winds still whipping at 10-15kts.  Usually to get temps in that -20 to -30 range you need to have ultra-optimal radiational cooling like what we had early this morning.  Even then it's usually only the favored low-lying areas that get in on those extremely low readings.  If the above works out and we see widespread -25 or lower this will definitely be one to remember.  

Looks like Thursday morning has the best shot at getting into all-time record territory.  That's when the surface ridge axis moves into the sub and drops winds to nearly calm.  Of course WAA will already be taking place above the surface, but there's usually a lag down near the surface with these extreme arctic setups.  If clouds don't muck things up I can def see Thursday morning being the one to watch for the lowest readings of this setup in the DVN/LOT areas. 

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1 hour ago, cyclone77 said:

Just simply amazing to see that level of cold with winds still whipping at 10-15kts.  Usually to get temps in that -20 to -30 range you need to have ultra-optimal radiational cooling like what we had early this morning.  Even then it's usually only the favored low-lying areas that get in on those extremely low readings.  If the above works out and we see widespread -25 or lower this will definitely be one to remember.  

Looks like Thursday morning has the best shot at getting into all-time record territory.  That's when the surface ridge axis moves into the sub and drops winds to nearly calm.  Of course WAA will already be taking place above the surface, but there's usually a lag down near the surface with these extreme arctic setups.  If clouds don't muck things up I can def see Thursday morning being the one to watch for the lowest readings of this setup in the DVN/LOT areas. 

New Euro now shows -30 to -33 readings Thu morning over northwest IL/extreme eastern IA.  Also only -20 around noon on Wed for the same areas.  Very impressive.

EDIT:  I should point out the 12z Euro showed 63 degree warmth the following Monday over these same areas.  I'd wager my retirement fund anything over 60 is not possible no matter what kind of insane pattern shift took place. 

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8 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

New Euro now shows -30 to -33 readings Thu morning over northwest IL/extreme eastern IA.  Also only -20 around noon on Wed for the same areas.  Very impressive.

EDIT:  I should point out the 12z Euro showed 63 degree warmth the following Monday over these same areas.  I'd wager my retirement fund anything over 60 is not possible no matter what kind of insane pattern shift took place. 

Probably a fair bet. Deep frozen ground, snowpack, and a quick turnaround? No way. 

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Quote

Wind Chill Watch
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
403 AM CST Sun Jan 27 2019


Dangerous wind chills of 60 below zero to 35 below zero are
expected Tuesday morning through Thursday morning in western and
central Minnesota. Wind chills of 35 below zero and lower are
expected Tuesday afternoon through Thursday morning in east
central MN and west central Minnesota.

The dangerously cold wind chills could cause
 frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 5 minutes.

 

Should be fun.

Quote

International Falls MN

27 Jan 3:55 am CST

Mostly Cloudy with Haze

-42°F

-41°C

 

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4 hours ago, Hoosier said:

00z Euro has a spot of -38C 850 mb temps on the IL/WI border at 12z Wednesday.  

Will be curious to see which model's 2m temp progs do best with this.

Hoosier, any data on the records for Gary? I distinctly recall the cold events of 1985 and 1996.  The 2019 edition could take the cake.  

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27 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

Record coldest wind chills by state on the new scale, as best I can tell:

MN: -66 at Duluth, 1/10/1982

IA: -64 at Waterloo, 12/24/1983

WI: -59 at Eau Claire, 1/10/1982

IL: -60 at Chicago, 1/20/1985

Quick someone find that record windchills thread from the middle of last summer.

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8 hours ago, Hoosier said:

00z Euro has a spot of -38C 850 mb temps on the IL/WI border at 12z Wednesday.  

Will be curious to see which model's 2m temp progs do best with this.

And the 06z GFS shows -37C in the same area.  Pretty amazing.  It seems pretty certain that -35C H85 temps or colder will occur in parts of IL.  If so, you'd have to think that LOT's forecast lows could be a bit conservative on Wed morning (generally -20 to -23)...but of course it makes sense to go conservative for now, then they can always bring temps down a bit over the next 12-24 hours if the models hold on to this.

Unfortunately, it looks like the core of the coldest air moves out quickly.  I now think that Wed morning will probably have both the coldest temps and the strongest winds in the Chicago area. Rural areas of N IL may be different. The radiational cooling on Thu morning may be better, but H85 temps will have warmed significantly by then...to around -25C.  Will be interesting to see how this plays out.

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1 minute ago, beavis1729 said:

And the 06z GFS shows -37C in the same area.  Pretty amazing.  It seems pretty certain that -35C H85 temps or colder will occur in parts of IL.  If so, you'd have to think that LOT's forecast lows could be a bit conservative on Wed morning (generally -20 to -23)...but of course it makes sense to go conservative for now, then they can always bring temps down a bit over the next 12-24 hours if the models hold on to this.

Considering MBY and several other areas out this way went to -24 the other night, someone is going to make a run at the deep -30’s 

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7 minutes ago, AppsRunner said:

We only managed to get to -5 last night which is encouraging. Wonder how the cold will be handled by people. Obviously the schools will close but what about businesses/universities?

Temperatures are going to be at a point where it’s not only a risk for older people to be outside, but pretty much anyone. I hope some businesses take that into consideration before opening, especially when they aren’t going to have much in the way of business.

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