Chicago Storm Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 1 hour ago, beavis1729 said: Ugh, not good. What about 0z Euro ensembles and the 6z Euro op? Good news is that even the GFS with the miss north for the hybrid storm, still has lows in the -30's and highs in the -20's on Wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 14 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Good news is that even the GFS with the miss north for the hybrid storm, still has lows in the -30's and highs in the -20's on Wed. Yeah, the 12z GFS generally held serve on the arctic outbreak, although verbatim it's a bit shorter in duration than what has been shown over the past few days. Strange outcome...because you'd think that with the Monday storm being more north, it wouldn't be able to pull the cold air down as far south as before...yet it still did. Heck, I'll take a -12/-22 day at ORD, to set the all-time low max. You'd think Thursday 1/31 has the best chance of doing this, as it will likely not have a midnght high going into the day...but of course it could warm up later in the evening of 1/31 if the arctic air mass begins moving out. It makes 1/18/94 and 12/24/83 even more remarkable to think about, both with highs of -11. At this point, it doesn't look like the all-time record low will be set. Of course it was always a long shot due to UHI and needing a million things to go right...but it actually looked possible over the past few days. Still nice to see the sub-480 thicknesses on the GFS, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 For what it is worth. This morning's 12z Canadian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 12z GFS-FV3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 12z Euro should be colder than 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 39 minutes ago, Hoosier said: 12z Euro should be colder than 00z. Yep, it's even colder than the GFS at times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 3 hours ago, Chicago Storm said: Good news is that even the GFS with the miss north for the hybrid storm, still has lows in the -30's and highs in the -20's on Wed. from one weenie to another.... I get where you're coming from but most folks would think you're bat sh*t crazy for calling -30's the good news 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 LOT AFD, long-term from Izzi Tuesday through Friday... Record breaking and potentially historic outbreak of cold still appears to be in the offing for the middle of next week. Greater than normal degree of forecast uncertainty in temperatures, due in large part to models showing all time records being broken and in some cases shattered. Generally made only very small tweaks to the temperatures from the model blend, due to the uncertainty. It is worth noting, that this model blend includes bias-corrected grids which still reflect a bias correction warmer from the unseasonable warm spell back in late Dec and early Jan and also contains a MOS component which tends to have some weighting toward climo, which obviously midweek temps will not look anything like climo. Typically, in record breaking temperature situations, a blend of the raw 2m model temperatures verifies best and those values are colder than our official forecast and approach or break all time records for ORD and MDW. The GFS, GFS-FV3, GEM, and ECMWF 12z operational runs all continue to drop 850mb temps to below -30C & in the case of the GFS to- 40C. To put this into perspective, using the SPC sounding climo page, the coldest 850mb temp even observed in IL (ILX, DVN, RAN, and PIA and dates as far back as 1949). Over the past couple days there have been some minor run to run variations in how low 850mb temps bottom out, but there has been a good deal of consistency of 850mb at least reach -30C. Even the 51 member ECMWF ensemble has 850mb temps reaching -30C over northern IL. Assuming we have a fresh snow pack from Monday`s system, the stage would be set for temperatures to really get out of hand and end up colder than currently forecast. Initially, moderate to strong northwest winds look to send wind chills bottoming out in the -35 to -50F range late Tues night into Wednesday. Some minor improvement in wind chills is expected Wed night into Thursday morning, due primarily to diminishing winds. Also worth noting that the 35 to 50 below wind chills are based on the somewhat conservative official forecast temps, but should the colder raw 2m model temps verify we could see wind chills approaching 60 below in the coldest areas and with most of the CWA reaching close to 50 below. There is still time for model guidance to back off on the intensity of Arctic air mass. Keeping that in mind, I felt quite comfortable with the more conservative temperature forecast. It is much easier and preferred to slowly trend a forecast closer to all time records this far out, rather than jumping out forecasting all time records only to later have to back off on those extremes if model guidance trends less severe with the cold. To put this cold into perspective some, during the past 20 years, Chicago has only had a sub zero high temp twice and only 22 times in the past 100 years. Our current forecast has air temps below zero between 40 and 60 hours across most of the CWA, which a much longer period of sub-zero wind chills. While still very cold, temps do look like they will begin to moderate Friday. - Izzi && .CLIMATE... Here are the record lows and record cold highs for next week`s cold... Tue Jan 29 Wed Jan 30 Thu Jan 31 Chicago Record Low -16 (1966) -15 (1966) -12 (1985) Record Low Max -6 (1966) 3 (1966) 1 (1971) Rockford Record Low -20 (1966) -19 (1966) -18 (1966) Record Low Max -9 (1966) -3 (1951) -3 (1996) Chicago All Time Record Low: -27 (Jan 20, 1985) All Time Record Low Max: -11 (Jan 18, 1994 & Dec 24, 1983) Rockford All Time Record Low: -27 (Jan 10, 1982) All Time Record Low Max: -14 (Jan 18, 1994 & Jan 6, 1912) - Izzi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 I think this even surpasses that Euro run from the other day that had -30s at 18z, as far as areal coverage. This is unthinkable... no way in hell, right? Beavis is probably going to print this out and hang it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 No doubt a serious, in some cases life threatening situation shaping up, particularly with bringing this kind of cold over big population centers. I'll say ahead of time that if anyone wants to have the morality debate about it, do it in the banter thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 57 minutes ago, Hoosier said: I think this even surpasses that Euro run from the other day that had -30s at 18z, as far as areal coverage. This is unthinkable... no way in hell, right? Beavis is probably going to print this out and hang it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 3 hours ago, buckeye said: from one weenie to another.... I get where you're coming from but most folks would think you're bat sh*t crazy for calling -30's the good news Quite true. Record chaser 4 lyfe here though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 We really need these few clippers to pan out between now and Tuesday to tap into the true potential of this airmass. Im not to optimistic. Despite decent radar returns right now, not a flake in the air, dry air is wining the battle. Monday is borderline as we warm into the mid to lower 30s before the bottom falls out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 The ferocity of the arctic air mass looks extremely impressive, but the longevity of it is almost more impressive. The Euro verbatim has us go below zero Monday night, and not get back above zero until Sunday. Not sure what the longest we've been below zero, but that's gotta be close to a record at the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 8 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: The ferocity of the arctic air mass looks extremely impressive, but the longevity of it is almost more impressive. The Euro verbatim has us go below zero Monday night, and not get back above zero until Sunday. Not sure what the longest we've been below zero, but that's gotta be close to a record at the least. For Moline, the record is 4 days from 1/31/1996 through 2/3/1996. There have been 5 occurrences of 3 days and 4 occurrences of 2 days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Word to your motherlode. Here it comes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Earlier today, the temperature reached -6° in Chicago. That was Chicago's coldest temperature since January 2, 2018 when the mercury fell to -9°. A much colder air mass could move into the region by the middle of next week. If some of the guidance is accurate, Chicago could experience its lowest temperature in more than 25 years. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 The journey from near the north pole 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 International Falls is already down to -37. Ouch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 2 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: International Falls is already down to -37. Ouch. to be honest...the focus is so much on the future today's high of about 5 degrees with an inch of snow is like it didn't occurr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 On 1/24/2019 at 2:08 PM, Hoosier said: I have trouble with wunderground these days so maybe somebody can check, but didn't the -27 at Chicago on 1/20/85 occur at like 9 am? So it doesn't necessarily have to be a nighttime min temp if you bring the coldest pool of air overhead during a different time of day. Yep. KRMY hit -22F Monday morning about 8:30, well after sunrise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toddrix1977 Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 23 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Earlier today, the temperature reached -6° in Chicago. That was Chicago's coldest temperature since January 2, 2018 when the mercury fell to -9°. A much colder air mass could move into the region by the middle of next week. If some of the guidance is accurate, Chicago could experience its lowest temperature in more than 25 years. Some of the guidance is showing all time low temps and all time low max. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 1 minute ago, toddrix1977 said: Some of the guidance is showing all time low temps and all time low max. Yes. That's correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Temps tanking tonight...-10 to -12 across NW Illinois currently. This will likely spread as more clearing occurs across N. Illinois. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 In the source region (for next week's mega cold) at present time, Shepherd Bay (Nunavut) reports -56 F (-48.6 C) which is close to its all-time record low. I notice on the latest guidance that the 474 dm thickness crosses into MN and WI and reaches Chicago before being squeezed out of the air mass. This may back off closer to the time, but even 486 dm thickness would be very unusual at that latitude. Shepherd Bay is near the base of the Boothia Peninsula on the arctic mainland around 70 deg N. It is not some frost hollow location like Mayo, Yukon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geoboy645 Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 already -16 here and its only 10. I wouldn't be surprised if we hit -20 if not lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 BCK -25 currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 -27 BCK. -23 to -25 at several sites in C. & S. Wisconsin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 MEX has a high of -13 at ORD on Wednesday, which would break the all-time record low max of -11. Would just have to avoid getting midnight highed by a higher number. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Down to -9 here. Several degrees colder than at this time last night and we bottomed out at -12 this morning. Maybe -15 or so tonight I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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