• Member Statistics

    15,534
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    GCWarrior
    Newest Member
    GCWarrior
    Joined
Sign in to follow this  
BuffaloWeather

Upstate/Eastern New York

Recommended Posts

9 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said:

At 7pm I was close to 6" while KBUF was only at 3.4"? I've definitely been under better returns but that seems a little low to me. I just took several measurements in my yard  which is pretty sheltered from wind and got an average otg of 7.4", granted there was an inch or so otg prior to this event starting. I'm at 7.3" for the event using my snowboard cleared every 6 hr. 

Do you know liquid for that 6 inches in rochester

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
24 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

Theres a definite chance we go to Blizzard warnings if it gets much worse!

We don't need that! Busting your balls a bit on that one. I want one damnit.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, phoenixny said:

I have been drinking so trust your measurements more than mine. We are close and it's not lake effect. Lmao

LOL. The wind has picked up...which could become an issue for accurate measurements...so who knows, you may be closer to correct than me.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Looks like we have our ramping up of deep ascent.  Returns all over NE Ohio/PA/NY are rapidly filling/increasing....

….Our atmospheric "chimney" is now in full working order! :)

  • Like 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Team Wayne Mahar has not budged on totals. 10 to 16 for us. Kinda a big deal with locals.  Teske/Mahar amounts. 10-16 vs 18+ 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, phoenixny said:

Team Wayne Mahar has not budged on totals. 10 to 16 for us. Kinda a big deal with locals.  Teske/Mahar amounts. 10-16 vs 18+ 

Clearly, they aren’t  onboard with Team Kuchera. ;)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, CNY-WXFREAK said:

Flake size has definitely increased in size too and whats to our South is just beautiful!

Well, to our south is nice, but the real McCoy with this system will be the deep moisture in place, as the lower and upper jet dynamics team up for some sick ascent.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

Clearly, they aren’t  onboard with Team Kuchera. ;)

That's a tough business to be in. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

All my friends from my hometown in Lancaster, PA are bummed with sleet and rain right now. Part of the reason I moved away from there over a decade ago! Too much rain and downsloping in winter.

Much more winter where I live now. :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

KALB still at 9F at 9pm and 1.2 mi vis, same as Syracuse and ROC. 

KPIT screwed at 35F and rain. 

KJFK 38F and preparing to break out the beach balls and summer drinks.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well, the precipitation here is so fine, I wouldn't even call it snow. It's almost a mist, and though it's been coming down like this all IMG_3275.jpg.573e19760fd152b9ff35245cbf32f3fa.jpgday, I don't think we've picked up three inches.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm shocked at the KBUF number...im at 6.3" for the day but I am about 5 miles NE of the airport/NWS. Intensity has picked up but the dendrites still small...need that to change soon.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yeah. Super small dendrites, it picks up and then decreased. At some point ya gotta wonder when it starts snowing hard? I don’t see heavy returns filling in on the NW quadrant. The heavy stuff seems to be getting shunted east. 

About 5” total here in Irondequoit. Only 2.5 in last 5-6 hrs. 

Give it another 2 hrs, let the wind go more northerly to get the lake involved. I’m more and more thinking my 13” might be money. Hope it’s low. Lol

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The models have not handled the low-level temperatures very well this evening and this will likely effect the track of the surface

low as it tracks across the northern mid-Atlantic late tonight. Temperatures have been colder than forecast especially in the upper

Hudson Valley and southern Adirondacks where readings have dropped down into the single digits to near zero.

The latest 00z NAM forecast is a bit farther south with the track of the surface low and is just a bit colder with its thermal profiles

than the previous couple of runs, however it would still support a change from snow to sleet as far north as the northern

part of the Capital District around daybreak Sunday. We suspect that when all is said and done sleet will mix with the snow

just about up to Saratoga Springs Sunday morning which will cut back on snow amounts from that area south.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

8.4” here and as TS18 said it’s dumping down pretty good now but flakes are just tiny. Flakes for a while late morning and early afternoon were much larger. Still that sugary snow which may hold us back some even if we manage to get it to come down heavier. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So, toying with some back of the envelop maths while we wait for the enhanced lift to do its dirty work...we have been averaging 3/8-1/2" per hr snow since noon around SYR. If 1/2"/hr kept up till end of storm, say noon, that's another 6.5" and bring us to 10" total.  Not often that a 10" snowfall would bring massive wailing and gnashing of teeth but it would. So I have to think we end up closer to 16-18" getting under a mesoband for a while.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said:

8.4” here and as TS18 said it’s dumping down pretty good now but flakes are just tiny. Flakes for a while late morning and early afternoon were much larger. Still that sugary snow which may hold us back some even if we manage to get it to come down heavier. 

Definitely heavier returns to our SW heading this way should equate to moderate to at time heavy snow for the next 6 hours or so. But dendrite size will play a BIG role in overall accums.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Coming down pretty good but what is it with this crappy flake size?  If you put 10 of these flakes together you might make a decent dendrite!

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This should happen soon:

 Adding to the jump in
snowfall rates will be much more favorable/efficient snow making
microphysics. Usually...the dendritic growth zone is 3-5 kft
thick...but overnight this zone of snow production will deepen
to nearly 10 kft! This will force our somewhat grainy `columns` and
`needles` of snow to change in character to dendrites...which
accumulate much faster.
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, CNY_WX said:

Coming down pretty good but what is it with this crappy flake size?  If you put 10 of these flakes together you might make a decent dendrite!

This is always the problem when I start looking at a Kuchera derived snowfall map... it almost becomes a snowfall expectation in the back of my mind, even though I know better. Looks nice but other factors are more important than just temperature profiles, and make or break a storm.  A sounding right now would help understand what’s happening. Guessing, low temps leaving the snow growth zone relatively low in the column, lousy UVV or it’s not aligned with a low snow growth zone, or the UVV is just too broad or diffuse.  Or some permutation of those factors?  I think Nick, OSU, mentioned something this the other day.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.