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1 minute ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

We have a H850 ket starting to ramp up now from the South right from the GOMEX!!

tadv_sf.gif?1547893492135

 

It’s not impossible the QPF is underdone for some. Euro runs a few days ago had over 2” in spots. Even the best meso models can miss this with deepest banding and frontogenic forcing. 

I foresee multiple 30” plus lollis. 

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Just now, CNY-WXFREAK said:

When all is said and done, the models had the right idea a week ago and were steadfast since!

I will have to share my Guidelines for snowstorms if you haven’t read it. 

I can be the villain in some places because we all know the SE ticks precede the NW climb back to the original thinking. Especially when it comes to the Euro. 

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3 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

The FV3 literally took every other model out there to school!  Finally after almost giving me a coronary last Wed nights 00Z the NAM is finally in the cone, lol!  WE all got NAMMED, lol!  The FV3 beat the livin crap out the EURO for sure!

If you GIF the last 18 runs of the FV3 it’s amazing. 

I suspect during the government shutdown NCEP borrowed the old version of the Euro and plopped it in there. 

Only rational explanation. :ph34r:

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25 minutes ago, 96blizz said:

If you GIF the last 18 runs of the FV3 it’s amazing. 

I suspect during the government shutdown NCEP borrowed the old version of the Euro and plopped it in there. 

Only rational explanation. :ph34r:

In all my yrs of tracking, Ive never seen a model catch on the way it did and didn't shuffle at all, just incredible!

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Reflective Composite out of KBUF shows the intense up-glide/lift Isentropic lift ramping up now as the llvl jet gets going out of S-SE and with a E-NE surface flow from an Arctic HP in Ottawa Province pretty much encompassing the whole SLP, WOW, just awesome to see in real time! 

Most weather terms are made up, lol!

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9 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

All models have initialized to cold with conditions at the surface and the system ticked NW again so KALB is seriously now in the cross hairs of screwing with IP/SN but I doubt any ZR but it may cut down on totals!

Yeah, as I mentioned previously, that over running almost always exceeds modeling around here. I may escape serious damage here in a Delanson, being north and west of Alb, even though I suspect we’ll ping for awhile, but Albany proper may lose several hours of peak snow time. :axe: 

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18 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

Alls Im sayin is, whoever goes to tonights game in the Dome, bring a comfortable sleeping bag cause your NOT getting home, lol! 

I’m worried about pitt getting out tonight and getting home.

 

What is your timing on snow starting up there?

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