BuffaloWeather Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Please post everything related to the upcoming storm here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 18, 2019 Author Share Posted January 18, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Good luck to all first big one of season. Hope for many more. My first call buf 17 roc 22 syr 20 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 18, 2019 Author Share Posted January 18, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Don't know if this was posted yet but if this is any indication of how the meso's are looking, then we're in for a very heavy snowfall in a short period of time. This NAM-WRF shows almost an 1" liq eq and thats only up until 06Z Sunday, lol, with another 18hrs and more of precip left, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 My bad wrong image. Here it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Write up from Channel 9 in Syracuse chief meteorologist Jim Teske: I'll just add a few notes for tonight's post about the weekend storm. IMPACTS: Arrival time looks to be about the same with something early in the afternoon. Remember, just because a Winter Storm Watch starts at 1 pm doesn't mean it starts snow hard at that time. The snow will be steady but relatively light through sunset. Heaviest snow begins in the evening and peaks overnight Saturday with snowfall rates of 1 - 2 inches and hour. It seems like the threat for real heavy snow is through about 8 or 9 am Sunday then lighter snow. However, wind will whip this snow around. It is not a wet snow so I would expect quite a bit of blowing and drifting. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS: I'm re posting our snowfall accumulation map. When forecasting the snowfall amounts this time around we really keyed in on temperatures. During the duration of the event we should be in the teens, not the 20s to near 30 like you might see in widespread snows like this. Why is this important? With these colder temperatures we end up squeezing more snow. If this snow occurred with a temperature around 25 - 28 we might forecast something closer to 8-12" However, with the colder temperatures we've ramped it up to 12-20" for Syracuse. LAKE EFFECT: We are still watching for lake effect Sunday night into Monday but two things seem to be working against a big accumulation for Syracuse. 1) The air is trying to dry out and 2) the wind direction seems to be a bit more northerly then the models were forecasting early in the week. Right now the best chance for an additional accumulation from lake effect looks to be over the Finger Lakes west of Syracuse. We'll keep you posted on the exact amounts as we get closer. That's all for now. Don't forget to join me on Facebook Live Thursday night at 8:45 pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Don't know why there's enhanced precip all along the thruway it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 NIce Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Dual threads? Oh well here is an ice map... . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 I haven't been following the ESP as good have you Wolf? Did it tick West or is it just me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Is o6z sunday 12 am sunday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Ok. Thanks. Wow yeah could double those numbers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 18, 2019 Author Share Posted January 18, 2019 6 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Dual threads? Oh well here is an ice map... . Yeah storm thread and general thread it’s easier to look back on big storms this way. This would go in general thread. There is no ice on Erie yet, I was just at lakeshore just a coating along immediate beach. We got 2-3 weeks of open water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 28 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Looking a bit better for Toronto. Perhaps we might get 4-6"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 I'd say a bit more, but tonights run should put a nail in the coffin for anyone hoping for a NW tick or 2! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 WOW look out over the Atl, Bermuda has waves/swells approaching 20FT Sunday evening!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 18, 2019 Author Share Posted January 18, 2019 Big dry slot on nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 EPS look freaking Fantastic! Thanks Wolfie 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 23 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: My bad wrong image. Here it is. Can you post 00z run when it's out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 NAM takes a huge jump South on 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Oh well storm cancel, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 It looks odd (upto 45 hr). Totally differed structure from earlier run. Faster, weaker. Ugly. Toss it! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 These short range models tend to jump around alot after 36 to 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 NAM is literally a total non event here. Literally brings 6" of snow here with Kuchera ratios... just when we thought we were narrowing the goalpost on a more NW track and things were looking up... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just when I was thinking there is no way there could be a dramatic shift...and then the NAM does that. SERIOUSLY?!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Timing issue it looks like to me and it still has to jump the Rockies so it can and probably will change again at 06Z! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Nam at 60 hrs is as good as the GFS at day 10, lol! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now