tim123 Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Could be a a foot if modeled accurately. Gives roc about 8 inches on 3 km nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 3 hours ago, tim123 said: Part 1 done part 2 lake. Dave Tim, I love you’re enthusiasm. We’ve been flooded with dry, It would take 12” of Lake Effect to get where most thought this storm would be. We got fooled by kuchera insane ratios (Syrmax already said it) OSU said two days ago that these storms are 10:1 usually. He was right. He also mentioned dry air following this storm, also right. I think Freak blocked me because I was a Debbie Downer yesterday afternoon and evening. We could all feel that the storm was anemic on the NW side. HRR started slashing totals as of 18z run. Ratios and flake size sucked. We could all feel it. So im not gonna pretend LES is gonna save this bust (which at 12” should’ve been right where we should’ve been). Set expectations lower. Enjoy what you got. BUF performed well. They needed one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 KBUF's thoughts about LE: Speaking of snow...regional radars as of late morning indicate that the back-edge of the moderately heavy synoptic snow is pushing east across the Eastern Lake Ontario region. In the wake of this...lake driven snows are immediately taking its place as the arctic air is is generating a moderately unstable environment over the lakes. While lapse rates will approach 9 deg c/km just `off the deck` of the lake...the 12z KBUF sounding depicted an incredibly strong and impressive 8 deg c inversion based around 2500 ft. This will SEVERELY limit the intensity of the lake snows due to a very shallow convective depth...but the degree of frigid arctic air will guarantee countless multiple bands of lake effect. Snowfall rates within this activity may be over a half inch per hour into the early afternoon...but as the arctic air deepens and the dendritic growth zone `drops out` of the cloud bearing layer...the fluffier dendrites that we have been experiencing will transition to plates and columns...which are icier and will accumulate at a slower rate. This type of snow tends to be `greasier` as well for those driving in it. Fresh snowfall from noon today until nightfall will generally be 2 inches or less...with two notable exceptions. As much as 3 inches of new snow will fall over the Eastern lake Ontario region before the synoptic snows taper off...and 2 to 4 inches will be possible for the counties lining the south shore of Lake Ontario. The lake snows will continue south of the lakes tonight. Guidance even suggests that as the core of the coldest air (H85 temps -27 to -30c) moves over us...the inversion may actually lift a few thousand feet. This could encourage the lake snows to be a little more impressive south of Lake Ontario...but given the lack of true dendrites...am not anticipating more than 2 or 3 inches from Lockport east to Fulton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 1 minute ago, rochesterdave said: Tim, I love you’re enthusiasm. We’ve been flooded with dry, It would take 12” of Lake Effect to get where most thought this storm would be. We got fooled by kuchera insane ratios (Syrmax already said it) OSU said two days ago that these storms are 10:1 usually. He was right. He also mentioned dry air following this storm, also right. I think Freak blocked me because I was a Debbie Downer yesterday afternoon and evening. We could all feel that the storm was anemic on the NW side. HRR started slashing totals as of 18z run. Ratios and flake size sucked. We could all feel it. So im not gonna pretend LES is gonna save this bust (which at 12” should’ve been right where we should’ve been). Set expectations lower. Enjoy what you got. BUF performed well. They needed one. We've easily gotten 2" of fluff over the past couple of hours, even with that 2500ft inversion - all under the radar. If this goes up to say 6 or 7k, then it may be a nice surprise for the south shore peeps. We shall see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Just and I expected. We’ll be lucky to get an inch of lake effect. It’s just not a good setup. That said, it was a very decent event overall. Anytime it snows for 24 hours straight you can’t be mad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 3 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Tim, I love you’re enthusiasm. We’ve been flooded with dry, It would take 12” of Lake Effect to get where most thought this storm would be. We got fooled by kuchera insane ratios (Syrmax already said it) OSU said two days ago that these storms are 10:1 usually. He was right. He also mentioned dry air following this storm, also right. I think Freak blocked me because I was a Debbie Downer yesterday afternoon and evening. We could all feel that the storm was anemic on the NW side. HRR started slashing totals as of 18z run. Ratios and flake size sucked. We could all feel it. So im not gonna pretend LES is gonna save this bust (which at 12” should’ve been right where we should’ve been). Set expectations lower. Enjoy what you got. BUF performed well. They needed one. Stop sayin I blocked you bro cause I can see every idiotic post you write, lol! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Snowing nice in walworth now. Keep us posted vort Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Look at this craziness going on near ORD... https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=LOT-N0Q-1-24 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 LE parameters improve substantially later this afternoon and this evening so its gonna snow again for sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Snowing good now in walworth. Big flakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 8 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: Just and I expected. We’ll be lucky to get an inch of lake effect. It’s just not a good setup. That said, it was a very decent event overall. Anytime it snows for 24 hours straight you can’t be mad. Wrong delta Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxNoob Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Took some measurements around the house. Averaged 13’ but granted my house tends to attract big time drifting. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Tim, or any Wayne county peeps, if you don’t already have the NEWS 10 First Alert wx app, grab it. Their Doppler Radar, out of Monroe county, does a good job of covering western Wayne. It currently shows a decent plume from Webster to Ontario. Sitting in mod snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 1 hour ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: 00Z this evening NNW winds kick in and aligned with ample RH and Omega so whoever get under whatever develops could in fact be better than what we just went through, lol! Looks even better 3 hrs later, wow! Lapse rates throught the roof cap 7-8000K! Snow growth the whole way down! Cool sounding. Only issue is, look where the SGZ is...practically on the deck. Flakes produced in a narrow, low SGZ tend to be crappy needles and such, not decent dendrites. I think KBUF and KBGM notes this in AFDs earlier. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 25 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Tim, or any Wayne county peeps, if you don’t already have the NEWS 10 First Alert wx app, grab it. Their Doppler Radar, out of Monroe county, does a good job of covering western Wayne. It currently shows a decent plume from Webster to Ontario. Sitting in mod snow here. Is that view on their website as well or just the app? Ok, downloaded, but radar is showing nothing...not sure if I got the right view. Edit: I found the Doppler toggle on the website, just not the app yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Just now, Syrmax said: Cool sounding. Only issue is, look where the SGZ is...practically on the deck. Flakes produced in a narrow, low SGZ tend to be crappy needles and such, not decent dendrites. I think KBUF and KBGM notes this in AFDs earlier. Yes, they did mention that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Just now, Syrmax said: Cool sounding. Only issue is, look where the SGZ is...practically on the deck. Flakes produced in a narrow, low SGZ tend to be crappy needles and such, not decent dendrites. I think KBUF and KBGM notes this in AFDs earlier. But even with the poor snow growth things could look awesome aesthetically when the wind gets ripping. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 That tends to happen when temps are below 0, lol. A dry atm does NOT hold WV good at all so deal with it, lol cause there won't be any silver dollars from LO thats a fact Jack! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Just now, CNY-WXFREAK said: That tends to happen when temps are below 0, lol. A dry atm does NOT hold WV good at all so deal with it, lol cause there won't be any silver dollars from LO thats a fact Jack! I'll take some quarters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Dimes, only dimes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 LOCATION 24 HOUR TIME/DATE COMMENTS SNOWFALL OF /INCHES/ MEASUREMENT NEW YORK ...Allegany County... Angelica 9.0 700 AM 1/20 Co-Op Observer Rushford 8.8 800 AM 1/20 Co-Op Observer 4 SW West Almond 8.4 900 AM 1/20 CoCoRaHS Alfred 8.2 730 AM 1/20 Co-Op Observer Whitesville 7.2 700 AM 1/20 Co-Op Observer ...Cattaraugus County... Little Valley 13.0 700 AM 1/20 Co-Op Observer 1 ENE Randolph 11.0 730 AM 1/20 CoCoRaHS Cattaraugus 10.0 800 AM 1/20 Co-Op Observer SSE Ischua 4.7 700 AM 1/20 CoCoRaHS ...Chautauqua County... 2 SW Forestville 16.0 730 AM 1/20 CoCoRaHS 1 SW Dunkirk 11.8 825 AM 1/20 CoCoRaHS 1 S Dunkirk 11.8 825 AM 1/20 Co-Op Observer Silver Creek 10.0 730 AM 1/20 Co-Op Observer 1 WNW Fredonia 9.5 500 AM 1/20 CoCoRaHS 4 SE Frewsburg 9.0 845 AM 1/20 Trained Spotter Falconer 9.0 700 AM 1/20 CoCoRaHS 4 ENE Jamestown 8.4 700 AM 1/20 Co-Op Observer ...Erie County... 1 W West Seneca 16.0 700 AM 1/20 CoCoRaHS 2 WNW West Seneca 14.5 745 AM 1/20 CoCoRaHS 1 SSE Eden 12.6 741 AM 1/20 CoCoRaHS 3 NE Cheektowaga 12.0 700 AM 1/20 CoCoRaHS Buffalo Airport 12.0 700 AM 1/20 NWS Office 2 NE Boston 12.0 800 AM 1/20 CoCoRaHS 3 E Williamsville 11.5 800 AM 1/20 CoCoRaHS 3 NNE East Aurora 11.5 700 AM 1/20 CoCoRaHS 5 NNE Amherst 11.3 800 AM 1/20 CoCoRaHS 4 ESE North Boston 11.1 700 AM 1/20 CoCoRaHS Akron 11.1 1030 AM 1/20 CoCoRaHS 2 SE Glenwood 11.0 800 AM 1/20 CoCoRaHS 3 NW Alden 10.5 700 AM 1/20 CoCoRaHS 2 SSW Blasdell 10.5 710 AM 1/20 CoCoRaHS ENE East Aurora 10.2 800 AM 1/20 CoCoRaHS 3 WSW Elma 10.0 700 AM 1/20 CoCoRaHS 1 ESE East Aurora 10.0 700 AM 1/20 CoCoRaHS WSW Hamburg 10.0 700 AM 1/20 CoCoRaHS 2 NW Cheektowaga 10.0 800 AM 1/20 CoCoRaHS Wales 9.6 700 AM 1/20 Co-Op Observer 2 SSE East Aurora 9.0 715 AM 1/20 CoCoRaHS ESE Kenmore 8.6 550 AM 1/20 CoCoRaHS ESE Clarence Center 8.5 745 AM 1/20 CoCoRaHS ...Genesee County... Pavilion 2 15.0 700 AM 1/20 Co-Op Observer 1 E Le Roy 13.5 800 AM 1/20 Co-Op Observer 3 E Alden 11.3 730 AM 1/20 CoCoRaHS 3 WSW Batavia 11.0 800 AM 1/20 CoCoRaHS 2 NE Stafford 10.5 745 AM 1/20 CoCoRaHS ...Jefferson County... 1 ESE Watertown 11.0 700 AM 1/20 CoCoRaHS ...Lewis County... Lowville 11.0 700 AM 1/20 Co-Op Observer 1 NW Constableville 10.0 600 AM 1/20 CoCoRaHS 1 E Osceola 10.0 700 AM 1/20 Co-Op Observer Chases Lake 8.6 600 AM 1/20 Co-Op Observer Highmarket 8.3 534 AM 1/20 Co-Op Observer ...Livingston County... Avon 12.0 840 AM 1/20 Co-Op Observer 4 WSW Dansville 11.0 700 AM 1/20 CoCoRaHS 1 ENE Dansville 8.7 737 AM 1/20 CoCoRaHS ...Monroe County... 5 WNW Rochester 17.2 700 AM 1/20 CoCoRaHS 4 SSE Pittsford 13.7 700 AM 1/20 CoCoRaHS Fairport 13.5 730 AM 1/20 Trained Spotter Rochester Airport 13.4 700 AM 1/20 ASOS Brockport 12.0 900 AM 1/20 Co-Op Observer Scottsville 10.1 900 AM 1/20 CoCoRaHS 3 W Webster 9.7 900 AM 1/20 CoCoRaHS ...Niagara County... 1 NE Lockport 11.5 700 AM 1/20 CoCoRaHS North Tonawanda 10.8 700 AM 1/20 Co-Op Observer 1 NNE North Tonawand 10.8 700 AM 1/20 CoCoRaHS 2 NE North Tonawanda 10.0 800 AM 1/20 CoCoRaHS Niagara Falls Airpor 10.0 700 AM 1/20 Co-Op Observer 4 NE Sanborn 9.2 700 AM 1/20 Co-Op Observer 3 ESE Lockport 9.1 700 AM 1/20 CoCoRaHS 2 NE Youngstown 7.8 700 AM 1/20 Co-Op Observer 6 E Niagara Falls 7.0 808 AM 1/20 CoCoRaHS 3 WNW Lockport 6.0 820 AM 1/20 CoCoRaHS ...Ontario County... Geneva Research Farm 9.0 800 AM 1/20 Co-Op Observer Honeoye 9.0 900 AM 1/20 Co-Op Observer 2 WNW Geneva 9.0 800 AM 1/20 CoCoRaHS West Bloomfield 9.0 700 AM 1/20 Co-Op Observer ...Orleans County... Medina 8.7 600 AM 1/20 Co-Op Observer WNW Medina 5.5 800 AM 1/20 CoCoRaHS Lakeside 3.0 700 AM 1/20 Co-Op Observer ...Oswego County... 8 N Redfield 14.4 700 AM 1/20 Co-Op Observer 1 NE Pulaski 14.0 800 AM 1/20 CoCoRaHS SE Minetto 12.1 730 AM 1/20 CoCoRaHS 5 NNW Sand Ridge 10.1 600 AM 1/20 CoCoRaHS 2 SSE Palermo 10.1 600 AM 1/20 Co-Op Observer W Fulton 10.0 800 AM 1/20 CoCoRaHS 4 SSE Lacona 9.6 700 AM 1/20 CoCoRaHS ...Wayne County... 2 SW Walworth 13.2 700 AM 1/20 CoCoRaHS 3 ESE Macedon 10.8 714 AM 1/20 CoCoRaHS 2 NW Palmyra 10.5 815 AM 1/20 CoCoRaHS ...Wyoming County... Warsaw 13.0 730 AM 1/20 Co-Op Observer 3 W Wyoming 12.8 700 AM 1/20 Co-Op Observer 7 SW Attica 12.3 600 AM 1/20 Co-Op Observer 3 NNW Silver Springs 8.0 700 AM 1/20 CoCoRaHS 3 N Silver Springs 8.0 700 AM 1/20 Co-Op Observer 2 NNE Perry 7.0 800 AM 1/20 CoCoRaHS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 NNW Sand Ridge is exactly where I live so 10-13" on avg is correct for the area it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 17.5 in KROC really? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 1 minute ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: 17.5 in KROC really? 13.4” at the actual KROC airport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 These bands should not reach to far perhaps N, Finger Lakes, but whoever gets caught under one will definitely improve totals so we'll see! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 I finished here at 12".. Did have some down sloping last night even though it didn't look noticable on radar to me lol I lost 2"-3" to my east and west.. Map shows 9"-11", could of been 11" but I measured 12" lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 10 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: 17.5 in KROC really? No way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 13.4 at 7 am at airport Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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