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Upstate/Eastern New York


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4 minutes ago, phoenixny said:

I have been drinking so trust your measurements more than mine. We are close and it's not lake effect. Lmao

LOL. The wind has picked up...which could become an issue for accurate measurements...so who knows, you may be closer to correct than me.

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Yeah. Super small dendrites, it picks up and then decreased. At some point ya gotta wonder when it starts snowing hard? I don’t see heavy returns filling in on the NW quadrant. The heavy stuff seems to be getting shunted east. 

About 5” total here in Irondequoit. Only 2.5 in last 5-6 hrs. 

Give it another 2 hrs, let the wind go more northerly to get the lake involved. I’m more and more thinking my 13” might be money. Hope it’s low. Lol

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The models have not handled the low-level temperatures very well this evening and this will likely effect the track of the surface

low as it tracks across the northern mid-Atlantic late tonight. Temperatures have been colder than forecast especially in the upper

Hudson Valley and southern Adirondacks where readings have dropped down into the single digits to near zero.

The latest 00z NAM forecast is a bit farther south with the track of the surface low and is just a bit colder with its thermal profiles

than the previous couple of runs, however it would still support a change from snow to sleet as far north as the northern

part of the Capital District around daybreak Sunday. We suspect that when all is said and done sleet will mix with the snow

just about up to Saratoga Springs Sunday morning which will cut back on snow amounts from that area south.

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So, toying with some back of the envelop maths while we wait for the enhanced lift to do its dirty work...we have been averaging 3/8-1/2" per hr snow since noon around SYR. If 1/2"/hr kept up till end of storm, say noon, that's another 6.5" and bring us to 10" total.  Not often that a 10" snowfall would bring massive wailing and gnashing of teeth but it would. So I have to think we end up closer to 16-18" getting under a mesoband for a while.

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4 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said:

8.4” here and as TS18 said it’s dumping down pretty good now but flakes are just tiny. Flakes for a while late morning and early afternoon were much larger. Still that sugary snow which may hold us back some even if we manage to get it to come down heavier. 

Definitely heavier returns to our SW heading this way should equate to moderate to at time heavy snow for the next 6 hours or so. But dendrite size will play a BIG role in overall accums.

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This should happen soon:

 Adding to the jump in
snowfall rates will be much more favorable/efficient snow making
microphysics. Usually...the dendritic growth zone is 3-5 kft
thick...but overnight this zone of snow production will deepen
to nearly 10 kft! This will force our somewhat grainy `columns` and
`needles` of snow to change in character to dendrites...which
accumulate much faster.
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15 minutes ago, CNY_WX said:

Coming down pretty good but what is it with this crappy flake size?  If you put 10 of these flakes together you might make a decent dendrite!

This is always the problem when I start looking at a Kuchera derived snowfall map... it almost becomes a snowfall expectation in the back of my mind, even though I know better. Looks nice but other factors are more important than just temperature profiles, and make or break a storm.  A sounding right now would help understand what’s happening. Guessing, low temps leaving the snow growth zone relatively low in the column, lousy UVV or it’s not aligned with a low snow growth zone, or the UVV is just too broad or diffuse.  Or some permutation of those factors?  I think Nick, OSU, mentioned something this the other day.

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