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I'm posting this in here because its relevant to our situation in either WNY-CNY but can be even more intense across our area as the system will be strongest as it passes by just to our S&E!

Areas affected...Northeast Indiana...northwest Ohio and southwest
   Michigan

   Concerning...Heavy snow 

   Valid 191609Z - 191915Z

   SUMMARY...Moderate to occasionally heavy snow will continue into the
   afternoon. Snowfall rates of 1 to 1.5 inches per hour are expected.

   DISCUSSION...A large precipitation shield has developed north of a
   deepening surface cyclone moving into the southern Ohio Valley.
   North of the rain/snow line, currently located just south of Marion,
   Indiana to near Delaware, Ohio, moderate snowfall has developed. A
   band of enhanced snowfall rates has developed from Rochester,
   Indiana to near Ann Arbor, MI. The location of this band matches 12Z
   NAM cross sections which had an area of negative saturated
   equivalent potential vorticity (EPV) above the low-level
   frontogenesis forcing. This area of conditional symmetric
   instability(CSI) is expected to wane by 18Z and then redevelop
   between 18Z and 21Z across northwest Ohio. Snowfall rates beneath
   these heavier bands will likely exceed 1 inch per hour with snowfall
   rates above 1.5 inches per hour possible. Outside of these stronger
   bands, snowfall rates will be around 0.5 to 1 inch per hour.
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Just now, CNY-WXFREAK said:

Your good Charles, don't let that ruin the event, cause thats all you'll think about, lol, I know cause it happen often here!

So I’m trying to remain hopeful, rgem, Hrdps, fv3, and as far as I can see on hrrr continues to be a good hit binghampton over.

9A127991-DC63-4C30-8C5D-DA2943223EB4.png

8B0459A3-AA7D-47A7-918F-7F20DC88CC2C.png

DCD5F551-C8F7-4173-A537-6197F589922C.png

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wolfie the colder soundings coming from the lakeshore communities of oswego county, does that boast more snow in regards to the snow ratios being higher..i just wory about the grainy small dendrite type flake that doesnt add up...also what do you guys think? the nws will up there totals...weather spotters out in Rochester are already alledgely reporting 3 inches and it wasnt suppose to start this early...its snowing here in oswego but nothing of great intensity...with small flakes..the wind here is more noticeable then inland locations

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5 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

I'm posting this in here because its relevant to our situation in either WNY-CNY but can be even more intense across our area as the system will be strongest as it passes by just to our S&E!


Areas affected...Northeast Indiana...northwest Ohio and southwest
   Michigan

   Concerning...Heavy snow 

   Valid 191609Z - 191915Z

   SUMMARY...Moderate to occasionally heavy snow will continue into the
   afternoon. Snowfall rates of 1 to 1.5 inches per hour are expected.

   DISCUSSION...A large precipitation shield has developed north of a
   deepening surface cyclone moving into the southern Ohio Valley.
   North of the rain/snow line, currently located just south of Marion,
   Indiana to near Delaware, Ohio, moderate snowfall has developed. A
   band of enhanced snowfall rates has developed from Rochester,
   Indiana to near Ann Arbor, MI. The location of this band matches 12Z
   NAM cross sections which had an area of negative saturated
   equivalent potential vorticity (EPV) above the low-level
   frontogenesis forcing. This area of conditional symmetric
   instability(CSI) is expected to wane by 18Z and then redevelop
   between 18Z and 21Z across northwest Ohio. Snowfall rates beneath
   these heavier bands will likely exceed 1 inch per hour with snowfall
   rates above 1.5 inches per hour possible. Outside of these stronger
   bands, snowfall rates will be around 0.5 to 1 inch per hour.

CSI! 

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2 minutes ago, Charlee4615 said:

So I’m trying to remain hopeful, rgem, Hrdps, fv3, and as far as I can see on hrrr continues to be a good hit binghampton over.

9A127991-DC63-4C30-8C5D-DA2943223EB4.png

8B0459A3-AA7D-47A7-918F-7F20DC88CC2C.png

DCD5F551-C8F7-4173-A537-6197F589922C.png

Really like where we sit for this one Charlee.  Mix line far enough southeast on all guidance we won’t mix but we are close enough to get into some nice rates overnight and tomorrow morning.  Enjoy the ride!

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5 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

I'm posting this in here because its relevant to our situation in either WNY-CNY but can be even more intense across our area as the system will be strongest as it passes by just to our S&E!


Areas affected...Northeast Indiana...northwest Ohio and southwest
   Michigan

   Concerning...Heavy snow 

   Valid 191609Z - 191915Z

   SUMMARY...Moderate to occasionally heavy snow will continue into the
   afternoon. Snowfall rates of 1 to 1.5 inches per hour are expected.

   DISCUSSION...A large precipitation shield has developed north of a
   deepening surface cyclone moving into the southern Ohio Valley.
   North of the rain/snow line, currently located just south of Marion,
   Indiana to near Delaware, Ohio, moderate snowfall has developed. A
   band of enhanced snowfall rates has developed from Rochester,
   Indiana to near Ann Arbor, MI. The location of this band matches 12Z
   NAM cross sections which had an area of negative saturated
   equivalent potential vorticity (EPV) above the low-level
   frontogenesis forcing. This area of conditional symmetric
   instability(CSI) is expected to wane by 18Z and then redevelop
   between 18Z and 21Z across northwest Ohio. Snowfall rates beneath
   these heavier bands will likely exceed 1 inch per hour with snowfall
   rates above 1.5 inches per hour possible. Outside of these stronger
   bands, snowfall rates will be around 0.5 to 1 inch per hour.

The Detroit AFD has also mentioned the system is slightly further north and west of guidance. Should be good for the Buffalo-Niagara crowd 

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2 minutes ago, mattny88 said:

lets talk about the northwest shift and trend in the model within these last few hours...how much does that affect bumping snow totals up..i want your guys thoughts on this conversation..thanks alot guys

TBH, not much because once you reach 2ft, does it really matter?  

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1 hour ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

Sleet or any kind of mixing isn't making it to the Mohawk Valley, no way no how.  The furthest it gets would probably be a line from KPOU  to KBGM if it even gets that far.

We’ll just have to see. KALY is disagreeing too now. I’m telling you, nearly every time they say “just south of here”, it makes it to the Mohawk line. 

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 940 AM EST...Warnings are out as we are in the calm before
the storm. Latest guidance coming in has shifted a bit further
north with the mid level warm nose which may result in a bit
more sleet and/or freezing rain.”
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To each their own I suppose, lol, as I can do without constant cover TBH as I am a falling snow guy.  I can watch it snow for hours and hours on end, obviously the accumulation aspect of a storm is a huge contributing factor for most, but not for me, but when I  snowmobiled, it was important for sure!

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