CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Its definitely digging more and building heights out in front much better than most guidance was showing so thats a good thing. I was hoping as this thing reaches the Lee side of the Rockies and starts Cyclogenesis that most guidance will pick up on the strength of this monster. The GOMEX is WIDE open for business and the water down there is practically still HOT for this timw of year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Whats up George, its been a while hope all is well and here's to a nice event! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Why the minimum George over Northern Oswego county if you care to share? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, CNY-WXFREAK said: Whats up George, its been a while hope all is well and here's to a nice event! Not much....Just super busy personal life!!! Yes, nice event....not quite a blockbuster.....and LOL, you referring this to a "monster".....the baroclinicity, and some impressive jet dynamics will be the driver of our impressive rates Sat. night...but from a SLP aspect....a 995mb SLP is not a monster "LOL"!!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 16 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: FWIW, channel 4s in house model shows the heaviest right over WNY and looked very impressive. Not sure which model their in house model is based off of though.. Mike still says about a foot in the metro...much more bold than the 5 to 10 the NWS is calling for. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: Why the minimum George over Northern Oswego county if you care to share? I assume some downsloping, along with distance from the storm and some models indicating some banding... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Went out to grab smokes and the roads are straight treacherous. Not alot of snow at all but whatever is falling is not melting obviously and there's a slick layer below the freshly fallen snow so its very slippery out there at least here on CNY anyway! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 NWS map to go with the warning this morning... screw job for BUF.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, LakeEffectKing said: I assume some downsloping, along with distance from the storm and some models indicating some banding... Agreed, as I mentioned that yesterday! I know its not a monster, lol, as I've been in a few Monsters, lol, and this will not be one of them, but still a noice SWFE for sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 The further East this event heads the further the winds will veer from what were suposed to be NE, are now NNW veering to NW then perhaps WNW for a time but with virtually no moisture to work with so that sucks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, CNY-WXFREAK said: The further East this event heads the further the winds will veer from what were suposed to be NE, are now NNW veering to NW then perhaps WNW for a time but with virtually no moisture to work with so that sucks! Yeah, LES behind this system will suck....short fetch, dry air, and shitty snow-growth....our storm is OVER, from a snowfall standpoint, from 21z Sunday on....windy with blowing and drifting???....Sure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 06Z RGEM is so nice as it resembles the EURO to a T and a RGEM-EURO combo 24hrs from an event is quite deadly if you ask me so everyone can step away from the ledge until 11AM, lol! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charlee4615 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, CNY-WXFREAK said: 06Z RGEM is so nice as it resembles the EURO to a T and a RGEM-EURO combo 24hrs from an event is quite deadly if you ask me so everyone can step away from the ledge until 11AM, lol! Agreed. Which is why I remain pretty bullish on the storm with a large swath ending up with 15+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 11 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: NWS map to go with the warning this morning... screw job for BUF... . Yeah thats a huge decrease in accumulation projections from just 10 hours ago...basically cut in half for the metro area. However there is a lot of model love this morning and most still show more than that. I'm riding my 10 to 12 inch amount still unless some jog to the south takes moisture with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 They seriously need to check themselves cause they started with 19" yesterday in and around KROC and its down to 13" and Buf down to 7" come on NAM??? What happens if they go up again as I expect them too, then they'll adjust with every run??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 06Z EURO, livin large! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Looks like it again ticked NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Actually exactly the same as 00Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 11 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: 06Z EURO, livin large! WIVB in house is going with the Euro and has KBUF at 11" for the storm. Still thinking the NWS has really buckled and gone too low. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 hour ago, WesterlyWx said: Just looked out my window to find grass is totally covered with steady snow falling. nice surprise for sure! Glad to hear that! Rooting for you, as it has been a tough winter there. 42 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: The further East this event heads the further the winds will veer from what were suposed to be NE, are now NNW veering to NW then perhaps WNW for a time but with virtually no moisture to work with so that sucks! This has been an awful LES season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Besides the NAM, the models look more encouraging than they did overnight. Looks like BUF looked at the NAM right at their new discussion time early in the morning, and ran solely with it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 29 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: WIVB in house is going with the Euro and has KBUF at 11" for the storm. Still thinking the NWS has really buckled and gone too low. EC has 1.2" along south shore. At 15:1 average, that's about 18". KBUF has 10-14" in the WSW. They could bust low, but not a ton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Look at all that juice this system has to work with from the Pacific, then as it strengthens its gonna tap the GOMEX, nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 38 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: WIVB in house is going with the Euro and has KBUF at 11" for the storm. Still thinking the NWS has really buckled and gone too low. They tend to side quite often with the NAM for some ungodly reason! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, CNY-WXFREAK said: They tend to side quite often with the NAM for some ungodly reason! Yeah it's odd that they hitched their forecast to that instead of a blend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 The SREF 03 for KROC is something out of a forecasters nightmare. It has an even spread of members from 8-45 inches. Average of 22”. BUF always starts WAY high and chips away. ALL the forecasters in our area started way high IMO (except Kevin Williams 8-16). The NAM could win this. Otherwise, this thing looks a bit better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 I would love another tick NW right before go time and 50-75 miles will suffice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Precip map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 FV3 For the Win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 RGEM came in moist especially for our CNY homies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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