Thinksnow18 Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 7 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: It’s the best lake effect model. Euro shows wsw winds too as wolfie posted. Better than the NAM within 48 hours? O always though the hi res models like the 3k were best at LES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 There's no model in the world that can predict a LES event from 4 days away! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 6 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Better than the NAM within 48 hours? O always though the hi res models like the 3k were best at LES. It is but I think they all suck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 23, 2019 Author Share Posted January 23, 2019 2 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: There's no model in the world that can predict a LES event from 4 days away! The event starts Friday into Saturday. 9 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Better than the NAM within 48 hours? O always though the hi res models like the 3k were best at LES. The RGEM is a higher res model, from my experience it's the best LES model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 I forgot its Wednesday, lol, thought it was Tuesday, forgot holiday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 12 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: The event starts Friday into Saturday. The RGEM is a higher res model, from my experience it's the best LES model. I just hope the models are on to something because the NWS is throwing a huge wet blanket over the opportunity for the metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 You NEVER see all three local stations with in house runs this close... . 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Hard to believe I was cross-country skiing on Sunday and Monday in truly arctic conditions - temps in single digits, wind chills well below zero, and a thick blanket of white powder. Now a little over a day later we have rain and temps in the 40's. Such is climo in upstate NY. Close the shades today and let's hope winter reemerges in a strong way later tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 23, 2019 Author Share Posted January 23, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 14 minutes ago, Buffalo Bumble said: Hard to believe I was cross-country skiing on Sunday and Monday in truly arctic conditions - temps in single digits, wind chills well below zero, and a thick blanket of white powder. Now a little over a day later we have rain and temps in the 40's. Such is climo in upstate NY. Close the shades today and let's hope winter reemerges in a strong way later tomorrow. Topography in WNY. Sucks with a southerly wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 7 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: That SHOULD be good for a 2 or 3 hour period of heavy snow in the metro Northtowns and if right 4 to 6 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 GGEM and Ukmet both have a nice westerly flow during the day on friday into friday night.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Not much change on the euro..Yes i used kuchera lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Did the entire Buffalo office call in sick today? Some good looks here for a hit close to the metro for the Friday AM commute and they still have the same BS forecast discussion up they did 24 hours ago...???. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 23, 2019 Author Share Posted January 23, 2019 Just now, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Did the entire Buffalo office call in sick today? Some good looks here for a hit close to the metro for the Friday AM commute and they still have the same BS forecast discussion up they did 24 hours ago...??? . Updates between 3-5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Updates between 3-5 Maybe watches will be up this afternoon? . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 23, 2019 Author Share Posted January 23, 2019 2 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Maybe watches will be up this afternoon? . Not every model is showing it so not exactly sure which way they go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 I see this a a advisory for buffalo. Shear and transitory. 4 to 7 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Well BUF just issued a winter storm watch for Oswego county for 8 to 15 inches of LES. It's not the "several feet" they were talking about...but, hey, maybe the Tug will get it's first foot+ LES event of this awful LES season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Snows for days on a SW flow on the LR euro, much more active off Ontario then Erie verbatim.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 23, 2019 Author Share Posted January 23, 2019 Just now, wolfie09 said: Snows for days on a SW flow on the LR euro, much more active off Ontario then Erie verbatim.. Most likely due to Erie freezing, its calculated into its algorithm, figures we get the flow after we have the ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 23, 2019 Author Share Posted January 23, 2019 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 8 to 16 inches possible in the most persistent lake snows. * WHERE...Chautauqua and Southern Erie counties. * WHEN...From late Thursday night through Saturday morning. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southbuffalowx Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: Most likely due to Erie freezing, figures we get the flow after we have the ice. Unfortunately it looks like by next week lake Erie will probably be mostly frozen over. Maybe it can hold out just enough for a decent event on the first day, but I'm not getting my hopes up. Definitely sucks because I move on the 1st and probably won't get to experience decent lake effect storms for a while, unless I book snow vacations to the tug like I read some people on here do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 WSW for Northern Wayne as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sub_Zero Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Closing in on a foot today, winter wonderland out! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Just now, Sub_Zero said: Closing in on a foot today, winter wonderland out! Nice, about time you guys get something good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 23, 2019 Author Share Posted January 23, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Not sure how this is 12"-18" over the tug lol .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... ...Significant lake snows possible Thursday night through Saturday morning... Conditions favorable for lake effect snow set up ENE of Lake Erie Thursday night, and later Friday/Friday night east of Lake Ontario. The event can be broken up into two distinct periods - one before an arctic boundary that will blast through the region on Friday, and one following the boundary. East of Lake Erie...A lake band should begin to organize Thursday Night. This one will be tricky, with a WSW flow focused on the Southtowns to near the Buffalo Metro region near the Friday morning rush hour. Snow rates may reach 1-2"/hr with this band, but models have yet to fully lock into this idea. The atmospheric profile is favorable though, with a cap above 7500` along with a saturated and cold airmass together with a full lake fetch. This band may drop several inches of snow until the above mentioned arctic boundary forces the band inland with eventual reorganization over the higher terrain to the east in the afternoon and evening. Later Friday evening, the band or multiple bands will probably keep going east of the lake, peaking at roughly 1"/hr and then weaken rapidly on Saturday as flow quickly backs to the south during the morning. Current forecasts have storm totals reaching 8-16" under the heaviest snows, with of course much less outside of lake bands. East of Lake Ontario...There are some models that try to generate a lake band SE of Lake Ontario (ex the Canadian), but most models have primarily a WSW flow without much of a response until Friday. With borderline temperatures aloft together with backing winds with time as the arctic boundary approaches, will hold off on any watches and higher snow rates until Friday. Some lake enhancement or general upslope flow should generate at least some snow accumulations across the Tug Hill Plateau during the morning, but a full fledged band may in fact have a hard time getting going until the frontal passage. After this point though, expect a band to blossom over and then move to the south of the Tug Hill. A band may then become quite intense Friday night along the Southern Lake Ontario shore from about Wayne County to Oswego County with snow rates in excess of 2"/hr as is often the case with increased convergence at night. There is the possibility that the band may hug Monroe County as well. These types of bands however typically remain just north of the Rochester Metro area and sometimes even have a slight concave appearance on radar. Regardless, this will probably be the most intense and interesting part of this particular lake effect event. The band should begin to weaken and move to the north on Saturday as winds back with time. For other areas, the main event will likely be a short-lived burst of snow with the arctic front on Friday. This may drop a quick inch or two of snow in the afternoon, probably before the evening commute. The boundary will disrupt or interact with the lake bands, and may evolve into a squall line as it moves ESE across the state. But otherwise most areas outside of lake effect regions will only see a chance of snow showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 This one will be tricky, with a WSW flow focused on theSouthtowns to near the Buffalo Metro region near the Friday morningrush hour. Snow rates may reach 1-2"/hr with this bandAn overachiever is overdue!!!. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Nam looking better than previous runs.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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