BuffaloWeather Posted January 25, 2019 Author Share Posted January 25, 2019 5 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Can definetly see the northward drift kicking in and the band falling apart. Maybe it’s getting ready to reorganize as a new single band again. Should be a fun evening ahead! The southern band will take over and strengthen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Nice view of the shift heading our way. Really filling in as the flow turns SW near Cleveland..Poor timing here as looks like it will be back near the south side of the metro by 4-5 just in time to mess up rush hour . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Watertown is going to see more lake effect this winter than Redfield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 24 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Watertown is going to see more lake effect this winter than Redfield. Any chance the LO band sinks to southern tug? Or just give up? The NWS map looks good, but I don’t see any support in models. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 25, 2019 Author Share Posted January 25, 2019 Picked up another 2" so far today. 6.5" storm total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 3 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Any chance the LO band sinks to southern tug? Or just give up? The NWS map looks good, but I don’t see any support in models. Thanks! We will probably see branches wisp off of the main band and sweep through...other than that, I give up. The pattern this whole winter has blown chunks for our localized area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 25, 2019 Author Share Posted January 25, 2019 There is a pretty big LES event from the 29th to Feb 1st with a W/SW flow. But the air might be too dry with that extreme cold. This also looks promising for this event continue into Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Just now, TugHillMatt said: We will probably see branches wisp off of the main band and sweep through...other than that, I give up. The pattern this whole winter has blown chunks for our localized area. Are you north or south of Brantingham? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 6 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Are you north or south of Brantingham? You are northeast of me. You might have a better shot than I do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 8 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: We will probably see branches wisp off of the main band and sweep through...other than that, I give up. The pattern this whole winter has blown chunks for our localized area. Yeah, all the upstream connections are now shifting north. NWS also mentions this. The band never drops as far south as we hoped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 The AFD at 2:29 states into the Northtowns for about 4 hours this evening with a sharp cutoff at the Erie/Niagara border where a trace can be found, while the heart of the band will produce up to 8"...on top of this they are also keying on tomorrow night in the metro for about a 6 to 9 hour window of LES as well!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 9 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: There is a pretty big LES event from the 29th to Feb 1st with a W/SW flow. But the air might be too dry with that extreme cold. This also looks promising for this event continue into Sunday. Just commented on that fron the AFD at 2:29 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 25, 2019 Author Share Posted January 25, 2019 Jeez. 1-2' more of snow today and tomorrow. Upstream satellite and observations are showing a wind shift across western Lake Erie in response to the next frontal boundary. This wind shift will cause the winds to back across the Lake and begin to shift the Lake Erie bands to the north. A shortwave trough will move into the Upper Great Lakes by this evening and this will increase lift and moisture across the eastern Great Lakes. The Lake Erie band will become better organized by early evening while it moves northward into Metro Buffalo and across the Northtowns. Snowfall rates of 2-3 inches/hr are expected. Consequently the lake band will move out of the Southern Tier and Southtowns with snow persisting right along the Lake Erie shoreline. Additional snow accumulation of 5-10 inches are expected in the Winter Storm Warning area from northern Chautauqua, NW Cattaraugus, Erie and western Genesee and western Wyoming Counties. A tight gradient of snow accumulations will be located near the Niagara/Erie and Orleans/Genesee borders. A cold front will move across Lake Erie and into western NY by Saturday morning. This will shift the lake band back to the south giving the Lake Erie shoreline to the Southtowns another round of snow. An additional 3 to 6 inches expected overnight for these locations. Southwest winds will become west, east of Lake Ontario this afternoon. With 850mb temperatures to -18C and lake induced instability has produced a well-organized lake band across Jefferson and northern Lewis counties. Favorable conditions will continue into this evening with snow rates ramping up as winds become westerly. Snow rates 2-3 in/hr are expected across the Tug Hill by evening. Winds will back to the southwest this evening resulting in the lake band to move north again. Heavy lake effect snow will continue across the northern Tug Hill region with additional snow accumulations of 1-1.5 feet across the Tug Hill to about a foot across Jefferson and northern Lewis counties tonight and into Saturday morning. It is likely that only the extreme northern section of Oswego county will be impacted with the rest of the county seeing little. Cold temperatures expected tonight with temperatures falling into the single digits to the low teens by the lake shores. Lake bands weaken into Saturday morning as dry air moves into the region and equilibrium levels come crashing down. Additional snow amounts of 1-2 inches are expected from the Lake Erie shoreline to the Southtowns and 2-4 inches across the northern Tug Hill region. Warm air advection increases aloft by afternoon and temperatures will rise into the upper teens to low 20`s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 25, 2019 Author Share Posted January 25, 2019 This looks good for you Tug Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 25, 2019 Author Share Posted January 25, 2019 It's sunny out here now, here comes the band. Just in time for rush hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 7 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: It's sunny out here now, here comes the band. Just in time for rush hour. Light snow already in Williamsville. And per radar the band on it's current trajectory is goibg to have no issue getting into the Northtowns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Euro has almost double digits for the early week system not including any LES.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 14 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Light snow already in Williamsville. And per radar the band on it's current trajectory is goibg to have no issue getting into the Northtowns. Better get some lovin’ this time. If that band just blows back north of me and camps out I might scream! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 25, 2019 Author Share Posted January 25, 2019 Just now, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Better get some lovin’ this time. If that band just blows back north of me and camps out I might scream! Unfortunately looks like a 2 band structure setting up. Not going to get those 2-3" hour rates with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 For some incredibly odd reasons channel 4 in Buffalo (WIVB) is staunch that the LES gets no further than the southtowns tonight...even though it's already snowing here...they blew the forecast last night and they're well on their way again!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 For some incredibly odd reasons channel 4 in Buffalo (WIVB) is staunch that the LES gets no further than the southtowns tonight...even though it's already snowing here...they blew the forecast last night and they're well on their way again!!!Can’t be any worse than Channel 2. They actually painted a big fat zero right over the whole metro for the remainder of the day... . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Amazing!!! Heavy snow in Williamsville right now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Just now, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Can’t be any worse than Channel 2. They actually painted a big fat zero right over the whole metro for the remainder of the day... . Well consider the source...that was once the why guy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 I’m out Cross country skiing at Knox Farm in EA. Band just moved in here. Vis way down. Pics later! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 25, 2019 Author Share Posted January 25, 2019 whiteout here as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 25, 2019 Author Share Posted January 25, 2019 The news stations are so bad now. Parker, Santos and Cejka are the only ones I can still tolerate. I wish they would just hire me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 25, 2019 Author Share Posted January 25, 2019 I'm really hoping those 2 bands combine in the next few hours and cover all of Erie county with 2-3" per hour. Rates outside right now are 1-2" per hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: The news stations are so bad now. Parker, Santos and Cejka are the only ones I can still tolerate. I wish they would just hire me. You're hired! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 25, 2019 Author Share Posted January 25, 2019 ..A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL AFFECT NORTHERN WYOMING...ERIE... NORTHWESTERN LIVINGSTON AND GENESEE COUNTIES... At 346 PM EST, a band of lake effect snow producing snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour is moving north toward the Metro Buffalo region. This band will strengthen and have an adverse effect on the commute for anyone travelling south or east of Buffalo through this evening. The band will move north into Metro Buffalo by around nightfall, then weaken and move back south overnight. During the evening hours, expect snowfall rates of 1 to 3 inches per hour within the 15 mile wide band. Winds in excess of 30 mph will produce significant blowing and drifting snow with brief periods of near whiteout conditions. Expect from a trace of snow from Tonawanda to as much as additional 8 inches, possibly more, tonight under the center of the band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Firing back up really quick! . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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