wolfie09 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 New map.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 8 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: New map.. I don't buy it. I think once you get north of the galleria (south of the 90) there will be an inch at best...these bands usually have a sharp cutoff to them and it's pretty cruel! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 54 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Just read it...it states just south of metro buffalo from Lackawanna to just west and south of Batavia...well I guess that puts me on the better luck next time middle finger... I'm in the same boat, lol, as this stupid county needs to be split in to 2, North and South, that simple but no! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 20 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: I'm in the same boat, lol, as this stupid county needs to be split in to 2, North and South, that simple but no! Hey Freak, that map has you at 6 inches and me 4-6. What do you think are the chances of that verifying ? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 7 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: Hey Freak, that map has you at 6 inches and me 4-6. What do you think are the chances of that verifying ? Absolute joke, map went from 12+ and 12-18" to 2-4" and 3-6" if we're lucky, lol ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 At this rate I'll be lucky to see 6" lol Rgem still Loving the SW flow, jp the Watertown area. 3k much more West/WSW hitting up the tug the hardest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Checking radars upstream in lower Michigan the snow looks really enhanced more than singular or multibanded in nature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 3 hours ago, Buffalo Bumble said: I’m trying to wrap my head around what the sensible weather will look like around here IF the PV somehow deposits itself in the upper GL’ next Tue-Thur. Bitter cold bone dry air with blue skies...bands of lake effect as thermal trofs pinwheel around the lakes...mothers crying in the streets for their babies...Oh the possibilities. Don't forget Jim Cantore. He will be there half frozen to interview said mothers. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Just noticed that the 12z gfs transferred to the coast.. I'll have to double check into it but i think the euro did this as well..Probably why we saw near double digits verbatim.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Here is hoping for a foot of Lake effect here tomorrow! Upslope snows should be helpful. I am thankful for that orographic lift. (That last line sounds like it should be a song title.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 1 hour ago, wolfie09 said: Just noticed that the 12z gfs transferred to the coast.. I'll have to double check into it but i think the euro did this as well..Probably why we saw near double digits verbatim.. So, We slot and we torch. Then go cryo? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 24, 2019 Author Share Posted January 24, 2019 I've never seen something like this on the models. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 24, 2019 Author Share Posted January 24, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: I've never seen something like this on the models. Straight stupid! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 24, 2019 Author Share Posted January 24, 2019 @OSUmetstud Any idea on these analogs? Historically speaking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 24, 2019 Author Share Posted January 24, 2019 That is like a piece of space coming and setting up shop over upstate. We will literally have the largest departures of the year anywhere on the globe? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 66', 65, 94 wowzers! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 24, 2019 Author Share Posted January 24, 2019 Do any of those analogs mean anything to anyone? Not sure how to look them up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: That is like a piece of space coming and setting up shop over upstate. We will literally have the largest departures of the year anywhere on the globe? -40 out in the Dakotas and southern Saskatchewan/Manitoba. Sh*t gets real when F=C! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 All I can say is I’m pumped for tonight and the upcoming few days! Just gotta get the kids to bed and do a beer run and then it’s snow time! Got the day off work tomorrow too so double pumped!!!. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 6 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Do any of those analogs mean anything to anyone? Not sure how to look them up. I've seen a comparison to '85 and maybe '67? I know the forecasts are not doing a good job with temps for this but I'm feeling a day next week Thursday or Friday that will not get above zero in all areas and the low temp of -21 at KBUF might be in jeopardy. That is also a mean SW flow and I'm really curious of the LES potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 7 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: I've seen a comparison to '85 and maybe '67? I know the forecasts are not doing a good job with temps for this but I'm feeling a day next week Thursday or Friday that will not get above zero in all areas and the low temp of -21 at KBUF might be in jeopardy. That is also a mean SW flow and I'm really curious of the LES potential. Rice snow for LES in those conditions. SGZ is underground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 2 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Rice snow for LES in those conditions. SGZ is underground. That is if there’s any part of the lake left unfrozen. I bet you could stand on the edge of the frozen part of the lake and literally watch the unfrozen parts freeze right before your eyes when it’s -8 F lol! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 3 hours ago, Thinksnow18 said: I don't buy it. I think once you get north of the galleria (south of the 90) there will be an inch at best...these bands usually have a sharp cutoff to them and it's pretty cruel! Yeah this is gonna show up as maybe an inch or two at KBUF. Just as well that the seasonal snowfall numbers will stay low and will more accurately reflect what an awful season this has been for the Niagara Frontier in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 6 minutes ago, WNash said: Yeah this is gonna show up as maybe an inch or two at KBUF. Just as well that the seasonal snowfall numbers will stay low and will more accurately reflect what an awful season this has been for the Niagara Frontier in general. Isn't the Niagara frontier always awful for snow? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 I don't buy it. I think once you get north of the galleria (south of the 90) there will be an inch at best...these bands usually have a sharp cutoff to them and it's pretty cruel!It’s the lake effect “cone of uncertainty”. Probably just to cover them if the band is a tick north of where they are thinking. Yeah the gradient on the northern side is super extreme but that’s where you usually find the most impressive rates so it’s a risk worth taking to ride on that side of the band. 2010 and 2014 it paid off for me but then other times like Jan 2017 we get robbed getting 6” while 2 miles south they get 30”. That’s life in the transition zone! . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 I am thinking we will be heading into a good clipper pattern starting soon. Let the lake enhanced snows commence! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Do any of those analogs mean anything to anyone? Not sure how to look them up. The one is the blizzard of 77. Jan 28th 1977. I'm not particularly familiar with any of the other ones. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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