wolfie09 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Starting to think i could miss the bulk of this event just to the north.. Just like those darn canadians.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Nice, big fatties falling here for the past hour...recovering everything. This is probably an elevation-dependent event, with not much near the lake/cities with a couple inches here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 1 hour ago, rochesterdave said: We had minor flooding in Roc area. Flipped around 7. Snowed hard for 3 hrs but we don’t have much to show for it. On my way to Snow Ridge today. Hoping on a westerly wind. Point and click indicating nuisance stuff....2-4” would be great for skiing. Westerly wind...you and me, both, Dave. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 I have a feeling will be some decent changes to the snow map next update.. This would be brutal, luckily we still have 30 hours to figure it out.. That's about 1.25"-1.5" liquid over southern jefferson county, worst case scenerio i take an 8 min trip north lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 I think the only thing that is clear right now is that the band is going to be north or south of us, wolfie. West winds don't exist anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 West wind is hard to come by, it's really only a 270 vector.. But we can get hit with other wind directions as well.. WSW at 260 vector would be fine, maybe evenr a 280 wnw flow, still new haha Trying to figure out what works and what doesn't.. We will figure this shlt out eventually..lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Nice solid covering on everything with moderate snow ongoing. With our snow pack freezing, this is going to make for one thick glaciated base! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Just now, wolfie09 said: West wind is hard to come by, it's really only a 270 vector.. But we can get hit with other wind directions as well.. WSW at 260 vector would be fine, maybe evenr a 280 wnw flow, still new haha Trying to figure out what works and what doesn't.. We will figure this shlt out eventually..lol Yeah, me too. NW and SW are phttt... Get some westerly component in there, and we seem to do better. Get enhancement in there, and we can do great. But, man, getting a 270 flow seems tough. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 19 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: 9" at KBUF...wait...Kuchera method...3.5" at KBUF!!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 There's gonna be some surprises with this event for sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Clipper looks nice on the ecwmf after this les event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Just now, OSUmetstud said: Clipper looks nice on the ecwmf after this les event. Sunday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 1 minute ago, Buffalo Bumble said: Sunday? Tuesday before the cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 I’m trying to wrap my head around what the sensible weather will look like around here IF the PV somehow deposits itself in the upper GL’ next Tue-Thur. Bitter cold bone dry air with blue skies...bands of lake effect as thermal trofs pinwheel around the lakes...mothers crying in the streets for their babies...Oh the possibilities. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southbuffalowx Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Wow, the cold the models are showing across the Midwest next week is pretty insane. -25 to -35 with wind chill as low as -60 Thursday morning! Thank goodness we have the lakes to modify that air mass. Hopefully we can get a day of SW flow of Erie before it fully ices over from that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 AO headed Pos EPO headed Pos PNA going Pos NAO stays primarilly Neg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 As modeled by the ecmwf im pretty sure wednesday evening into thursday morning would be BUF's second coldest airmass recorded since the advent of the 1950s sounding program, only slightly behind 12z jan 17th 1982 (cold Sunday). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 This is what that sounding looked like. Its buf's record cold wind chill and the day of the infamous afc championship game in cincy. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 24, 2019 Author Share Posted January 24, 2019 11 minutes ago, Buffalo Bumble said: I’m trying to wrap my head around what the sensible weather will look like around here IF the PV somehow deposits itself in the upper GL’ next Tue-Thur. Bitter cold bone dry air with blue skies...bands of lake effect as thermal trofs pinwheel around the lakes...mothers crying in the streets for their babies...Oh the possibilities. An easy pass by me 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 That "clipper' is bringing with it some warmer air, which obviously needs to be watched in future runs.. Mixing doesn't last for long but it's there.. Some places receive near 1" liquid from this event.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 lots and lots of surprises are inbound! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 24, 2019 Author Share Posted January 24, 2019 9-17” with winter storm warning here 7-14” for buffalo. 40 mph winds, should be exciting last hurrah for Erie. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 1 hour ago, OSUmetstud said: Tuesday before the cold. That has potential warning criteria snowfall. I'm kinda excited about that systems potential. If the EURO is correct (and it has been really consistent with this low placement) then it would put the CWA on the right front quadrant and best lift. I could see a strip of snow of 8 or 10 inches. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: 9-17” with winter storm warning here 7-14” for buffalo. 40 mph winds, should be exciting last hurrah for Erie. Just read it...it states just south of metro buffalo from Lackawanna to just west and south of Batavia...well I guess that puts me on the better luck next time middle finger... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Kinda seen this one coming.. WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 9 to 17 inches expected in the most persistent lake snows. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph. * WHERE...Northern Oswego county toward the Tug Hill Plateau. * WHEN...From 7 AM Friday to 10 AM EST Saturday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 24, 2019 Author Share Posted January 24, 2019 Wolf what did euro show for total snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 24, 2019 Author Share Posted January 24, 2019 Finally a good les band! East of Lake Erie...A single band should be bisecting Erie County in the evening before slowly crawling a little south toward the Boston Hills. This puts the Southtowns directly under the band with significant impacts for the evening commute. While not an extreme event in terms of duration and storm total amounts, there will still be the potential for 2"/hr snow rates, possibly higher in the early evening. A well aligned flow with a cap near 7500`, together with steep lapse rates and ample moisture should allow a band to maintain it`s strength through the evening. Although models take the band a little further south overnight, the band may end up in a steady- state with impacts remaining in Southern Erie County, far northern sections of Chautauqua, and the extreme northwestern section of Cattaraugus County. There is a possibility that it may miss the Southern Tier entirely and remain in and over Southern Erie County and Western Wyoming County. Details can be found in our snow rate and experimental lake effect polygon graphics online, which snow the highest impact better than words and certainly better than county- based zone areas. Saturday, the band should quickly weaken as flow backs to the south. Storm totals may be anywhere from 6-18" with of course far less outside lake effect areas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 So here's KSYR 's outlook for the next 7 day: we chill, then we torch, than we go liquid Nitrogen. This is exciting... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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