Syrmax Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 2 hours ago, wolfie09 said: Another synoptic system will cross the area late Monday through Tuesday. Model guidance continues to show a variety of track solutions with this system. Some runs, including the 00Z GFS and GEM take the low center to the north and west of our region, which would bring a brief warm-up and possible mixed precipitation or even rain to our region. The ECMWF on the other hand takes a more southern track, which would keep our area all snow. If the more southern track verifies this system could be a respectable snow producer for our region. Regardless of the eventual track of this system, model guidance remains in good agreement in bringing another strong push of true arctic air into the Great Lakes and New England for the second half of next week. 850mb temps may bottom out at -30C, which would support near record cold across our region. We're gonna have a nascent glacier here in about a week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mfgmfg Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 2 hours ago, Thinksnow18 said: You know the forecast was a huge bust in a lot of ways yesterday...temps, precip amount, possible flooding from ice jams and runoff...not a good day yesterday for the meteorologists at the NWS Not sure how to look up older warnings but BGM did mention this possibility at least as far back as yesterday. Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Binghamton NY 347 AM EST Thu Jan 24 2019 NYZ009-018-036-037-250900- Northern Oneida-Onondaga-Madison-Southern Oneida- 347 AM EST Thu Jan 24 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Significant rises overnight are expected on area rivers and streams which could lead to ice jams. Localized minor flooding is also possible due to poor drainage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Pouring out.. Should start to see a change over around 16z.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Looks like the rain/snow line is passing Rochester now. I measured 0.68 inch of rain this morning. The snowpack melted or compacted some but is still pretty substantial. The temperature here briefly got to 42 then fell back into the upper 30s overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 We've been snow since 7:30am...NE of KROC. Down to 33 from 41. Definitely some substantial melt, but still snow covered everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 22 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: Looks like the rain/snow line is passing Rochester now. I measured 0.68 inch of rain this morning. The snowpack melted or compacted some but is still pretty substantial. The temperature here briefly got to 42 then fell back into the upper 30s overnight. Much of WNY rose to the upper 40's for much of the day and overnight hours...dewpoints were also in the 40's...my 10" snowpack was just about wiped out yesterday as I had bare grass in the backyard and about 2" in the front yard. Picked up about 1 1/2" this morning to freshen things up but the damage was done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Looks like a cave to the euro to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Dave may be in a good spot for this one.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Same with the 3k.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 I've never experienced a WSW flow, not sure what to expect lol I ride the southern edge of heavy accumulations on the majority of models.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 38 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Same with the 3k.. Gonna be a razor thin gradient in the northern edge of that Erie band. Could get a foot here or an inch. Yikes. BuffaloWeather looks to be in the sweet spot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Flipping over to snow now, an hour earlier than expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 What a mess this morning. Thanks to upsloping, we had a ton of rain here overnight. About a foot of heavy glop remains. Driveway was impassable with solid ice. Sitting on the line for good lake effect snow. That's my negative Nancy for the day...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Nam products have almost nothing for kfzy but the ARW to the rescue with over 2 feet haha.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Nmm looks like the NAM/3k nam.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 24, 2019 Author Share Posted January 24, 2019 The high res models definitely had the change over correct overnight. 2.2” of slop this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 24, 2019 Author Share Posted January 24, 2019 Jan 30-feb 2nd might be the coldest air I’ve ever seen modeled. We could do the hot water to gas trick with those temps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 38 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Flipping over to snow now, an hour earlier than expected. Interesting, wolfie. Just changed over here. Took 40 minutes for the rain/snow line. Line must be moving slow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 We wont get a better idea on wind direction until tomorrow, pathetic i know, can't forecast wind direction one day in advance lol Pretty much have 4 different camps that have developed.. The canadian guidance which is more SW then anything.. Euro/Nam/3knam/Nmm/icon which is wsw.. Uk/wrf-Nssl which is more westerly.. Both ARW products are WNW.. No secret which way i'm leaning lol And it's not the most favorable wind direction for me.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 8 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Jan 30-feb 2nd might be the coldest air I’ve ever seen modeled. We could do the hot water to gas trick with those temps. I cant even bring myself to look at those models. Not a big fan of negative digits. With any wind anyway... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 3 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Interesting, wolfie. Just changed over here. Took 40 minutes for the rain/snow line. Line must be moving slow. Changeover happening now in Syracuse. Expecting zip for new snowfall. What an under modeled system this has been. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Just flipped here, temperature down to 35. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Seems about right imby, nearest WU station with just over an inch liquid.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 We had minor flooding in Roc area. Flipped around 7. Snowed hard for 3 hrs but we don’t have much to show for it. On my way to Snow Ridge today. Hoping on a westerly wind. Point and click indicating nuisance stuff....2-4” would be great for skiing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 26 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Jan 30-feb 2nd might be the coldest air I’ve ever seen modeled. We could do the hot water to gas trick with those temps. Looks like lake effect blizzard territory...ala jan 85 or jan 14. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Your typical 400 mile jump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 24, 2019 Author Share Posted January 24, 2019 12 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: Looks like lake effect blizzard territory...ala jan 85 or jan 14. It does but the lake will be mainly frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 HRDPS destroys the metro for a few hrs late Friday night into early Saturday.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: It does but the lake will be mainly frozen. Hmm not sure about that. Its more than half open now. Id think the ice conditions would be relatively similar to jan 14 when there was ice too. Any significant wind will break up the ice in the freeze up. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 I’d think the last 36 hrs put the hurt on the Erie ice. This has not been a cold winter. IMO, ice a non concern. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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