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BuffaloWeather

Upstate/Eastern New York

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Whew...the NAM 3K sure does show "several feet" for the Tug...........

Every snow event here has underperformed since after Thanksgiving.

Yup, gonna keep whining, cuz this winter is stupid. :P

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1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I've driven in some of the craziest snowfall rates you would ever see. I remember one time driving home from skiing I legitimately couldn't see anything. I just drove straight and hoped for the best. I knew the band was insane but had to leave. We pulled over and waited for it to pass because it was that bad. It was mainly due to the fact that there was no light on that thruway, pure darkness. If it was a town or city I'd be fine. 

In response to your question I'm all about being in the elements. I don't get the same enjoyment looking out my window. I have a AWD car that plows right through most piles so its always fun driving around in it, that is unless visibility gets so bad you cannot see anything. You'll see that in the really strong events off both lakes. I've never seen a synoptic event with snowfall rates I'm scared to drive in, I doubt they even exist aside from that Nemo band in Connecticut a few years back. 

Yeah the highest rates I’ve ever seen was Nemo here in CT. Truly extraordinary.

I like being out in the elements as well, but not on the road where I know people are ridiculous and I haven’t had a lot of hazardous wx driving experience. I like setting up shop in a location and doing long walks. For me it’s incredibly relaxing mentally with all the physical challenge you could ask for.

I chased that big January 2018 blizzard in Ocean City, MD and the mile walk I took was the most grueling thing I ever did. So much fun.

This summer I did a long walk in an 111 heat index. Great, but snow is better lol.

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18 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Yeah the highest rates I’ve ever seen was Nemo here in CT. Truly extraordinary.

I like being out in the elements as well, but not on the road where I know people are ridiculous and I haven’t had a lot of hazardous wx driving experience. I like setting up shop in a location and doing long walks. For me it’s incredibly relaxing mentally with all the physical challenge you could ask for.

I chased that big January 2018 blizzard in Ocean City, MD and the mile walk I took was the most grueling thing I ever did. So much fun.

This summer I did a long walk in an 111 heat index. Great, but snow is better lol.

Agree. Jeb walks are the best way to enjoy the elements. I do quite a bit of cross country skiing too. 

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22 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

RDPS is a central Erie lock as well! BW looks like your gonna jackpot on this one!
568118f3386a8b09e8702438411591f4.jpg


.

A shame I chased that one event in perrysburg and the rates were garbage. The only good band was that one in November over Springville. 

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No one else knew about the 3" deluge we just received? Gotta love when they say rain, and it turns into a flooding rn, unreal, but when its supposed to snow heavy, we get pixie dust for flakes, lol!

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Funny how the NWS put kfzy at the high end but almost nowhere else off Ontario..

Expected snow here is 6"-8" but a high of 12"-18" lol 

 

SnowAmt90Prcntl (1).png

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Another synoptic system will cross the area late Monday through
Tuesday. Model guidance continues to show a variety of track
solutions with this system. Some runs, including the 00Z GFS and GEM
take the low center to the north and west of our region, which would
bring a brief warm-up and possible mixed precipitation or even rain
to our region. The ECMWF on the other hand takes a more southern
track, which would keep our area all snow. If the more southern
track verifies this system could be a respectable snow producer for
our region.

Regardless of the eventual track of this system, model guidance
remains in good agreement in bringing another strong push of true
arctic air into the Great Lakes and New England for the second half
of next week. 850mb temps may bottom out at -30C, which would
support near record cold across our region.

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29 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:
Another synoptic system will cross the area late Monday through
Tuesday. Model guidance continues to show a variety of track
solutions with this system. Some runs, including the 00Z GFS and GEM
take the low center to the north and west of our region, which would
bring a brief warm-up and possible mixed precipitation or even rain
to our region. The ECMWF on the other hand takes a more southern
track, which would keep our area all snow. If the more southern
track verifies this system could be a respectable snow producer for
our region.

Regardless of the eventual track of this system, model guidance
remains in good agreement in bringing another strong push of true
arctic air into the Great Lakes and New England for the second half
of next week. 850mb temps may bottom out at -30C, which would
support near record cold across our region.

Come on Euro!!!

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I think KBUF goes back to their original thoughts with excluding Wayne and Monroe Counties cause I cant see how, except for the AF with snow showers likely with passage, but other than that, I don't see it, that's just me!

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1 hour ago, wolfie09 said:

Funny how the NWS put kfzy at the high end but almost nowhere else off Ontario..

Expected snow here is 6"-8" but a high of 12"-18" lol 

 

SnowAmt90Prcntl (1).png

Their just covering their asses is all, as they haven't got a clue though, really!

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Euro's respectable event for Tues-Wed of next week can get a bit interesting,  It's not a huge snow producer for the area, but its the only model that stays primarilly snow for the event.  I'd be more inclined to believe the Euro over other guidance when we're within 4days so its a lock that we see something for tues-wed but we just need others to follow suit,  Here's the Euro and it doesn't look bad at all and I think the Euro is Waaaayyyyy off with its band placement as these band are not going steady state for more than 6hrs in any one area,  now I know totals have went down by half in some places!  Bands are just too transient for blockbuster totals but we'll see:

1771476278_download(13).thumb.png.3f98b19ceca3168812c8642b053ff9f9.png

102871030_download(11).thumb.png.4fc701743c571e429feed5b8335a385f.png

1494769182_download(12).thumb.png.ac870eddcc534e7917a1422333e4db3b.png

 

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Euro has been lock step with this system and I've watched the GFS do it's normal dance in placement. I tend to also agree with the Euro in a 4 to 5 day lead time as that is where it's sweet spot seems to be.

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I don't believe any of these models for this next little LE event so I wouldn't get your hopes up cause its a bad set-up and the reason being is the super transient nature of the bands as their super transient still and can't lock in for more than a few time!

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6 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Pretty good Ice Jam on Caz this morning. Closing in on bank full...
ddbb5ec4f7507591896e93efd672197e.jpg


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You know the forecast was a huge bust in a lot of ways yesterday...temps, precip amount, possible flooding from ice jams and runoff...not a good day yesterday for the meteorologists at the NWS

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956715202_download(14).thumb.png.f34230f934a36a0e6dc31f129d38083f.png

126hr Euro much better SLP placement so I will side with the Euro for sure!

1334820931_download(17).thumb.png.a07382ac801c603e00580d632b7e0f64.png

 

I'll take the Euro for 1000 please!

 

 

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8 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Pretty good Ice Jam on Caz this morning. Closing in on bank full...
ddbb5ec4f7507591896e93efd672197e.jpg


.

Never thought anything of Ice Jams really till we met up and saw that huge one bust up right Beaneth the bridge we were on and it felt like an earthquake! Then we saw that jet ski get slammed up against the bridge! Definitley wasn’t expecting any ice jams at this time so kind of surprised to see this. 

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I think the reason my NWS forecast is always so wrong is they use the Canadian way to much lol 

But never hear them mention the ukmet, do they not see verification..

With this event they mentioned the GFS/Nam/ggem but not the euro which is had the same wind direction for 3days now lol

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