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Upstate/Eastern New York


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7 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

Thats being generous bro as I'm going with zip for tonight and as the front approaches tomorrow sn may get heavier and steadier for a time, but will be over in no time. almost like a CF picking up a band and taking it with it.

18Z NAM spits out ~0.2" liquid at KSYR...12Z GEM&GFS  had around 1/3"...so yeah at 11:1 we net about 2-4" total. "Lollipops" to 5" in the hills South of here. LOL

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wasn't it just last year we had that surprise event that NWS issued a blizzard warning for? They didn't think the lake could support anything with the ice cover and only issued a squall  warning at first 
 
 
just found this which seems like a interesting read https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/2007MWR2310.1


Wasn’t a frozen lake they just didn’t think parameters would support anything more than flurries. Conditions were all very marginal but the wind made even the low snowfall rates seem extreme. Nice event bad forecast call.

72b54a5a4767c0d95088a175fcbed723.jpg
d1ed600bc9b98d11e8c98e0f783eb01d.jpg


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3 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said:

Yeah that map seems very suspect for sure but I guess it’s possible...

Last night was very cold and calm, so I'm guessing that aided ice growth a lot. That being said, that would mean much of the ice is very thin, so if that's the case, maybe it won't have much affect at all. 

It's still interesting to note, nonetheless

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7 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

 


Wasn’t a frozen lake they just didn’t think parameters would support anything more than flurries. Conditions were all very marginal but the wind made even the low snowfall rates seem extreme. Nice event bad forecast call.

72b54a5a4767c0d95088a175fcbed723.jpg
d1ed600bc9b98d11e8c98e0f783eb01d.jpg


.

 

Thanks for finding that. I couldn't remember the exact details. That link I posted is a really good read on ice coverage and lake effect off Erie, here is the link 

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/2007MWR2310.1

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47 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

I saw indications of that but several days left for that to resolve. Models usually underdo the warm push so if next weeks system tracks where currently progged it'll probably be more liquid than ice with this cold shot rotating out.

This is different. Back door cold front models usually underdo cold from north east

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For entertainment purposes only...here's my WAG at upcoming snowfall through Friday:

Erie Jack: BUF Airport - 27" 

Other notable Erie locations: Williamsville - 18"; West Seneca - 23"; Hamburg - 20"; Colden - 19"

Ontario Jack: Barnes Corners: 47"

Other notable Ontario locations: Watertown - 23"; Osceola/Highmarket - 29"; Redfield - 14"

 

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9 minutes ago, tim123 said:

This is different. Back door cold front models usually underdo cold from north east

There's no backdoor front next week. Its a mini torch. We will punch well into the 40s for 2 days with copious rain...again. Storm track is way west and awful in its inconsistency this season.

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2 minutes ago, Buffalo Bumble said:

For entertainment purposes only...here's my WAG at upcoming snowfall through Friday:

Erie Jack: BUF Airport - 27" 

Other notable Erie locations: Williamsville - 18"; West Seneca - 23"; Hamburg - 20"; Colden - 19"

Ontario Jack: Barnes Corners: 47"

Other notable Ontario locations: Watertown - 23"; Osceola/Highmarket - 29"; Redfield - 14"

 

If I had to guess I’ll go:

Erie Jack: Clarence 17”

Other Locations: KBUF 15”, Williamsville 13”, West Seneca 10”, Hamburg 12”, Colden 16”

Ontario Jack: Worth 39”

Other Locations: KART 20” Osceola/Highmarket 26”, Redfield 18” 

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3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

In other news, my mom was at Roswell all day. Brain tumor, keep her in your thoughts and prayers. 

From a man who was at Roswell 5 years ago for 43 days...there's no place you'd rather your mom get the care she needs/ deserves than at Roswell. Well wishes to your mom and to you and your family. 

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1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Oh man I’m really sorry to hear that. My prayers are with you and your family.

 

1 minute ago, Thinksnow18 said:

From a man who was at Roswell 5 years ago for 43 days...there's no place you'd rather your mom get the care she needs/ deserves than at Roswell. Well wishes to your mom and to you and your family. 

Thanks guys, everything happened so quickly. Hopefully its benign and everything will be okay. 

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1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Since we are at 40 pages I was thinking of maybe creating a separate thread for this event? Or just create a new thread and talk about this event within it since its not effecting the entire upstate? 

Go with it. There's a better than good chance this is going to be remembered.

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42 minutes ago, Buffalo Bumble said:

For entertainment purposes only...here's my WAG at upcoming snowfall through Friday:

Erie Jack: BUF Airport - 27" 

Other notable Erie locations: Williamsville - 18"; West Seneca - 23"; Hamburg - 20"; Colden - 19"

Ontario Jack: Barnes Corners: 47"

Other notable Ontario locations: Watertown - 23"; Osceola/Highmarket - 29"; Redfield - 14"

 

KBUF 28" 

Williamsville 23"

Downtown 21"

West Seneca 18" 

Hamburg 24"

Colden 24"

 

KART 39"

Redfield 26"

 

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