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I remember driving through the Buffalo lake effect snowstorm in the early 2000s that dumped like 7 to 8 feet. We were going to Niagara Falls for a college friend weekend. On the way up it was dumping in Orchard Park. Then I remember waking up in the middle if the night to see a fog of snow in Niagara as the band shifted north for a while. Then, on the way home...seeing snowbanks the size of houses all over Lancaster...

It was my first experience with a true snow band.

You know you're a weenie when you can remember the weather in such detail.

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1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Yep, that's why I decided to come up.

Being in the snow bullseye is always best, but if I can get sig snow and big cold along with some strong winds, it's worth a trip no doubt whatsoever. 

I mean...I could be at home preparing for another cutter fail. Screw that. 

Haha. Watertown is going to do really well. I have a feeling you won't be disappointed. Welcome to the North Country! If conditions aren't too bad, I encourage you to check out the 1000 Islands. Beautiful area.

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Just now, CNY-WXFREAK said:

If thats real it'll be frozen over by the weekend, lol!

I think it may have broken up some further down towards Cleveland with temperatures above freezing and strong southerly winds, but that is definitely going to inhibit lake effect bands of Erie significantly. It'll probably be frozen over by Thursday afternoon, so ski country probably won't see too much

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13 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

I have a feeling there's gonna be quite a few members who are disappointed for just getting 18" when they were forecasted to get 40, lol!

Cleveland is/was torching and rain, 39F. Sorta envious.  We need to get that up into CNY to get the roads and cars spic n span again, but no deal. Rice snow and cold for us! ;)

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2 minutes ago, tim123 said:

May be a classic south shore ice storm coming next week. Euro and gfs v3 have it

I saw indications of that but several days left for that to resolve. Models usually underdo the warm push so if next weeks system tracks where currently progged it'll probably be more liquid than ice with this cold shot rotating out.

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I think it may have broken up some further down towards Cleveland with temperatures above freezing and strong southerly winds, but that is definitely going to inhibit lake effect bands of Erie significantly. It'll probably be frozen over by Thursday afternoon, so ski country probably won't see too much


Frozen lake doesn’t mean anything... 5 mile wide open patch of lake water was just enough to fire up a band that dropped 10-14” over central Erie county.
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4 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

We'll be in a virga storm real quick and its gonna need to precipitate quite a bit before saturation as we're sitting at 18F/1F, lots of wasted precip for sure!

Good point, was thinking that might be the case. It is dry. I'll go with 1/2 -3/4" by dawn here.

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3 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:


Frozen lake doesn’t mean anything... 5 mile wide open patch of lake water was just enough to fire up a band that dropped 10-14” over central Erie county.
 

 

Good find. I remember that event. That's why I dont think you all near Buffalo will have much of an issue with frozen lake limitations with this event.

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Just now, Syrmax said:

Good point, was thinking that might be the case. It is dry. I'll go with 1/2 -3/4" by dawn here.

Thats being generous bro as I'm going with zip for tonight and as the front approaches tomorrow sn may get heavier and steadier for a time, but will be over in no time. almost like a CF picking up a band and taking it with it.

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33 minutes ago, southbuffalowx said:

I think it may have broken up some further down towards Cleveland with temperatures above freezing and strong southerly winds, but that is definitely going to inhibit lake effect bands of Erie significantly. It'll probably be frozen over by Thursday afternoon, so ski country probably won't see too much

I'm surprised at that map. Figured with the strong band that fired up in southern Erie County late yesterday afternoon that a good chunk of the central basin was still open.  

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