lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 28” by Wednesday morning! Literally highest total on that map is smack dab over my house. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southbuffalowx Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Just now, WesterlyWx said: 28” by Wednesday morning! And the best part is the regular name shows the next 24 hours after that as being even better! I'm sure the weather service will put up watches tonight as the mesoscale models come more into play 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 28, 2019 Author Share Posted January 28, 2019 2 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: 28” by Wednesday morning! Literally highest total on that map is smack dab over my house. Lol That's a really thin band, would be surprised by that. Stretch that thing another 5-10 miles. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 20 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: 28” by Wednesday morning! Literally highest total on that map is smack dab over my house. Lol Hell even Northtowns see 1 foot again...lets see the NWS will have it in southtowns only and the local stations in far southern Erie. And northern Chautauqua. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 45 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: Matt, unfortunately that bands gonna fly right by you I think as the winds have gone NW Yep. I went for a Jeb walk and it was coming down nicely with large flakes. Still snowing, but weakening quickly. Beautiful...but another tease... oh, good west winds, where art thou? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Checking out the runs for next week...our problem this winter is we haven't had much blocking to slow the progressive pattern down. Gotta get some good blocking in eastern Canada and the North Atlantic. Not sure that will happen with this fast paced El Nino pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 3" of new snow.. Looks like some tea kettle stuff that's just making it to me 14 miles from the lake shore lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Nws changed their map accordingly.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 The Ukmet the wettest it has been so far with about an inch LE in the form of snow for mon/tue.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Just not seeing it lol Ksyr would be lucky to see a few inches on the Euro/Nam/3k. At this rate I'll be lucky to hit 6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 59 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Just not seeing it lol Ksyr would be lucky to see a few inches on the Euro/Nam/3k. At this rate I'll be lucky to hit 6". I’m with you. Baffled really. The only model showing anything remotely close is the RGEM. The models have consistently shown a lot of shadowing over the Finger Lakes - which if it were only one model I could see it being wrong - but almost all of them do. This map is a head scratcher for me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 yeah buddy! Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Southern Erie- Including the cities of Buffalo, Batavia, Warsaw, Orchard Park, and Springville 345 AM EST Mon Jan 28 2019 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 2 feet possible in the most persistent lake snows. Winds could gust as high as 45 mph later Wednesday through Thursday, which may produce near blizzard conditions with severe blowing and drifting snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 10 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: yeah buddy! Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Southern Erie- Including the cities of Buffalo, Batavia, Warsaw, Orchard Park, and Springville 345 AM EST Mon Jan 28 2019 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 2 feet possible in the most persistent lake snows. Winds could gust as high as 45 mph later Wednesday through Thursday, which may produce near blizzard conditions with severe blowing and drifting snow. Isn’t it bad luck to be in a BUF bullseye map this far out? Also are the times correct? That map says it only goes through 7am Wednesdsy morning?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Can you say EPIC multi day event if this plays out!!!A potentially significant lake effect event off of Lake Erie willstart Tuesday afternoon, with the potential for more than a foot ofsnow accumulation.850 temperatures will drop from early morning values of around-5C to near -15C by the afternoon, causing increasing lake inducedequilibrium heights and increased instability off of Lake Erie. Aband of light to moderate lake effect snow should start to takeshape by the early to mid afternoon on Tuesday off of Lake Erie.Lake effect snowwill continue northeast of Lake Erie as cold air advection continuesinto the area. Lake induced equilibrium levels off of Lake Erie areexpected to reach around 12kft or greater Tuesday night, resultingin the potential for heavy lake effect snow. Winds funneling downLake Erie from between 240-250 degrees will continue to put the lakeeffect band northeast of the lake.Wednesday morning, ongoing lake effect snow off of both lakes willcontinue through the day. Lake effect off of both lakes will startout the day northeast of the lakes, and slowly expand/shiftsouthward through the day.The polar low that will be centered over the CentralGreat Lakes on Wednesday morning. This reinforcing cold airadvection will bring 850 temperatures down to near -30C by Wednesdayafternoon. With this additional cold air advection coming to theregion, guidance is suggesting lake induced equilibrium levels of upto 15kft off of both Lake Erie and Lake Ontario during the day onWednesday.Wednesday night, lake effect snow will continue northeast of thelakes, only dropping south some from where the bands were earlier inthe day. Strong winds will continue to causeblowing and drifting snow, with near blizzard conditions.Potentially heavy lake effect snow continuing into Friday east ofthe lakes. 850 mb temperatures are -20C or colder during this time,with decent synoptic moisture in the 850-700 mb layer. The onlything that will complicate things will be the growing ice coverageon Lake Erie. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Finished with 5.5" yesterday/overnight.. Pulaski scored 9" from that little band, not sure I buy the 0.20" LE lol Snow did have a big time fluff factor but probably not that much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 1 hour ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Can you say EPIC multi day event if this plays out!!! A potentially significant lake effect event off of Lake Erie will start Tuesday afternoon, with the potential for more than a foot of snow accumulation. 850 temperatures will drop from early morning values of around -5C to near -15C by the afternoon, causing increasing lake induced equilibrium heights and increased instability off of Lake Erie. A band of light to moderate lake effect snow should start to take shape by the early to mid afternoon on Tuesday off of Lake Erie. Lake effect snow will continue northeast of Lake Erie as cold air advection continues into the area. Lake induced equilibrium levels off of Lake Erie are expected to reach around 12kft or greater Tuesday night, resulting in the potential for heavy lake effect snow. Winds funneling down Lake Erie from between 240-250 degrees will continue to put the lake effect band northeast of the lake. Wednesday morning, ongoing lake effect snow off of both lakes will continue through the day. Lake effect off of both lakes will start out the day northeast of the lakes, and slowly expand/shift southward through the day. The polar low that will be centered over the Central Great Lakes on Wednesday morning. This reinforcing cold air advection will bring 850 temperatures down to near -30C by Wednesday afternoon. With this additional cold air advection coming to the region, guidance is suggesting lake induced equilibrium levels of up to 15kft off of both Lake Erie and Lake Ontario during the day on Wednesday. Wednesday night, lake effect snow will continue northeast of the lakes, only dropping south some from where the bands were earlier in the day. Strong winds will continue to cause blowing and drifting snow, with near blizzard conditions. Potentially heavy lake effect snow continuing into Friday east of the lakes. 850 mb temperatures are -20C or colder during this time, with decent synoptic moisture in the 850-700 mb layer. The only thing that will complicate things will be the growing ice coverage on Lake Erie . I've been in Manhattan the past few days...been keeping up from afar.. WSW for Tues thru Thurs...1 to 2 feet of snow, Blizzard conditions...bullseye right over metro/Northtowns...how the hell is this blog not on fire right now?!?!?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 I got back from Orlando last night and needed all of my trucks 4wd to get down the driveway. I’ll be spending the next couple hours snow blowing This next setup looks to be epic if everything comes together... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 I can't speak for off Erie but the GFS/Nam have a predominant WSW flow off Ontario..Nam gets me a little more into the action on the southern fringes.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Big difference for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 4 hours ago, wolfie09 said: Just not seeing it lol Ksyr would be lucky to see a few inches on the Euro/Nam/3k. At this rate I'll be lucky to hit 6". Absolutely right. I live right where the "P" is in Cooperstown. I wish I had a bookie so I could bet the under on 11 inches. I would be a rich man. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Nice tea kettle going this AM. 1" of fluff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Not really digging the snow 'hole' over the ROC area. WSW to the West, to the East, to the South...what gives? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 So yeahh, Nam meh lol Looks like the euro verbatim, at least for here.. 5"-6" of snow which is about what I am expecting, the Low end of the NWS 6"-12" forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 47 minutes ago, cny rider said: Absolutely right. I live right where the "P" is in Cooperstown. I wish I had a bookie so I could bet the under on 11 inches. I would be a rich man. That map is some sort of a mistake. Right? Maybe it's the 1 in 10 probability map misposted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 At least I won't have to go to far lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 What on earth happened to tomorrow's system? Went from being a potentially major snow event to possibly a rain storm to.....this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 53 minutes ago, vortmax said: Not really digging the snow 'hole' over the ROC area. WSW to the West, to the East, to the South...what gives? Terrible pattern for Roc. Down slope. I’m not impresed with any of the synoptic set up. Cooperstown and Syracuse aren’t getting warning amounts. TUG and BUF get absolutely crushed. Buried. Goners. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 4 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Terrible pattern for Roc. Down slope. I’m not impresed with any of the synoptic set up. Cooperstown and Syracuse aren’t getting warning amounts. TUG and BUF get absolutely crushed. Buried. Goners. Lol...more like northwest Tug. But if I can manage to get the almost 2 feet NAM shows to actually fall, I will be a happy man. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 This is obviously a much longer event then last.. I would expect winds to fluctuate enough over the 3 days to give us atleast something, especially thursday and possibly friday.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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