wolfie09 Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Long range NAM looking pretty good as well.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 19 minutes ago, Sub_Zero said: eh? What about it lol Poking a little fun, Canadianism.. "It is often joked about by Canadians as well, and is sometimes even a part of the national identity." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eh#Canada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 1 hour ago, Luke_Mages said: NWS just lowered totals at the airport for last night by 6”?!? No. The lower number your looking at is 24 hour snowfall. Event spanned over 2 days. Storm total is still accurate. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 1 hour ago, Luke_Mages said: NWS just lowered totals at the airport for last night by 6”?!? EDIT: Steve explained this already so I’m deleting my comment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Updated totals from yesterday. This was definitely not a Northtowns storm. Between the overnight snow on Thursday and the transient bands yesterday evening, the NE corner of Buffalo got a little more than six inches. Fingers crossed we get one or two more chances at breaking our LES drought up here before Lake Erie shuts down until next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 26, 2019 Author Share Posted January 26, 2019 32 minutes ago, WNash said: Updated totals from yesterday. This was definitely not a Northtowns storm. Between the overnight snow on Thursday and the transient bands yesterday evening, the NE corner of Buffalo got a little more than six inches. Fingers crossed we get one or two more chances at breaking our LES drought up here before Lake Erie shuts down until next year. I disagree, the Buffalo airport is pretty far north in Erie county. This was an event for all of Erie county, but northern Erie county was hit hard. In order to hit North Buffalo/Kenmore/Tonawandas/Grand Island you need a SSW flow event which happens less then 5% of the time. This event ended the Buffalo LES drought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 26, 2019 Author Share Posted January 26, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 The airport is in Cheektowaga, not really the northtowns. The only part of the northtowns that really got hit was Clarence, which often gets storms that are southtowns oriented. A paradigmatic northtowns storm is the October surprise. While the amounts were extreme, we haven’t even had a lesser storm with a northtowns bullseye since then. That is the real drought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 26, 2019 Author Share Posted January 26, 2019 5 minutes ago, WNash said: The airport is in Cheektowaga, not really the northtowns. The only part of the northtowns that really got hit was Clarence, which often gets storms that are southtowns oriented. A paradigmatic northtowns storm is the October surprise. While the amounts were extreme, we haven’t even had a lesser storm with a northtowns bullseye since then. That is the real drought. It’s in far northern Cheektowaga closer to Williamsville. Cheektowaga also borders West Seneca near French road. It’s a very large town. A far northtown event requires SSW wind, a very rare wind direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 I’m not talking about very rare storms that bury North Tonawanda. The NWS Buffalo lake effect page and the lake effect storm book show storm that hit the near northtowns, including Kenmore, Tonawanda, Williamsville, and Amherst, very hard - not every year, but not as rarely as in recent years. The crippling November 2000 storm is another example, and it’s not hard to find storms that gave a solid hit to the northtowns more frequently than the decade plus drought we are currently in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vicarious Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 7 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: It’s in far northern Cheektowaga closer to Williamsville. Cheektowaga also borders West Seneca near French road. It’s a very large town. A far northtown event requires SSW wind, a very rare wind direction. I'm in Cheektowaga and half a mile from West Seneca and Buffalo(Harlem and William St. area) and I personally would consider the airport part of the town as northern Erie. Lake effect events are so rare for grand island and tonawanda that it's not really a drought but more like the expectation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 A storm that hits the airport and missed the northtowns isn’t even that infrequent. Here’s one from last year that demonstrates that very clearly. 10” at the airport and a dusting in Amherst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 2 minutes ago, Vicarious said: I'm in Cheektowaga and half a mile from West Seneca and Buffalo(Harlem and William St. area) and I personally would consider the airport part of the town as northern Erie. Lake effect events are so rare for grand island and tonawanda that it's not really a drought but more like the expectation. I’m not talking about Grand Island, or the Town of Tonawanda. I’m talking about near Northtowns - Kenmore, Amherst, Williamsville, Snyder. These are places that have have gotten LES events every couple of years in the past but now have seen a lake effect drought of 10+ years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 26, 2019 Author Share Posted January 26, 2019 10 minutes ago, WNash said: I’m not talking about very rare storms that bury North Tonawanda. The NWS Buffalo lake effect page and the lake effect storm book show storm that hit the near northtowns, including Kenmore, Tonawanda, Williamsville, and Amherst, very hard - not every year, but not as rarely as in recent years. The crippling November 2000 storm is another example, and it’s not hard to find storms that gave a solid hit to the northtowns more frequently than the decade plus drought we are currently in. The map for this event will be identical to this one in terms of location around Buffalo I was in Amherst at UB north and they had 8-10" there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Actually, a lot of people forget but the Northtowns did have a Major LES back in '10 courtesy of Lake Ontario! Quote Niagara Falls....31 inches N. Tonawanda....26 inches Kent....26 inches Amherst (N)....19 inches Tonawanda....14 inches 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 To each his own, but as a northtowner I would chalk up yesterday as a great event. If I’m expecting a 12”+ lake effect event here every couple years I’m gonna be disappointed a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 4 minutes ago, WNash said: I’m not talking about Grand Island, or the Town of Tonawanda. I’m talking about near Northtowns - Kenmore, Amherst, Williamsville, Snyder. These are places that have have gotten LES events every couple of years in the past but now have seen a lake effect drought of 10+ years. IMO areas like West side,Delaware park,Blackrock haven't really had that much of luck since that Oct'06 LES event, last night was a prime example as those same areas got shafted while areas north and east of them were cashing in.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southbuffalowx Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 41 minutes ago, WNash said: The airport is in Cheektowaga, not really the northtowns. The only part of the northtowns that really got hit was Clarence, which often gets storms that are southtowns oriented. A paradigmatic northtowns storm is the October surprise. While the amounts were extreme, we haven’t even had a lesser storm with a northtowns bullseye since then. That is the real drought. There was a storm in 2024-2015 winter that dropped like a foot or so across the northtowns I remember. Transitioned right through central Erie and the immediate southtowns so we got like 4-6" Edit: This was the storm I was talking about, 15" in Kenmore, that's definitely pretty good for a northtowns event. https://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=2014-2015&event=G 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 22 minutes ago, southbuffalowx said: There was a storm in 2024-2015 winter that dropped like a foot or so across the northtowns I remember. Transitioned right through central Erie and the immediate southtowns so we got like 4-6" Edit: This was the storm I was talking about, 15" in Kenmore, that's definitely pretty good for a northtowns event. https://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=2014-2015&event=G That’s definitely the best one in the last decade or so. I lived in Parkside then, and we had 12”. If I recall, that band moved north from downtown up to the Tonawandas and back, so there were two periods of 2” - 3” per hour snow of about 2-3 hours each. A pretty good storm, but that was over four years ago, and that one event, putting down about a foot, is as good as it has gotten for North Buffalo and the near northtowns in the last decade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 25 minutes ago, Buffalo Bumble said: To each his own, but as a northtowner I would chalk up yesterday as a great event. If I’m expecting a 12”+ lake effect event here every couple years I’m gonna be disappointed a lot. It was a good storm for the fraction of the northtowns that it affected, and that part of the northtowns hasn’t been in a long term LES drought. For the most populated parts of the northtowns, it was maybe half a foot over a day and a half, which is barely advisory criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 26, 2019 Author Share Posted January 26, 2019 KBUF hit 20"! NEW YORK ...Cattaraugus County... Little Valley 4.0 700 AM 1/26 Co-Op Observer SSE Ischua 1.7 700 AM 1/26 CoCoRaHS ...Chautauqua County... Perrysburg 14.9 700 AM 1/26 Co-Op Observer 1 S Dunkirk 9.2 700 AM 1/26 Co-Op Observer Silver Creek 8.5 730 AM 1/26 Co-Op Observer 1 SW Dunkirk 6.2 700 AM 1/26 CoCoRaHS 3 N Celoron 2.7 600 AM 1/26 CoCoRaHS Falconer 2.4 700 AM 1/26 CoCoRaHS 4 ENE Jamestown 1.7 600 AM 1/26 Co-Op Observer ...Erie County... 4 ESE North Boston 21.3 700 AM 1/26 CoCoRaHS Buffalo Airport 20.0 700 AM 1/26 ASOS 2 NE Boston 17.0 830 AM 1/26 CoCoRaHS 1 W Colden 15.0 730 AM 1/26 Co-Op Observer 3 E Williamsville 15.0 700 AM 1/26 CoCoRaHS ESE Clarence Center 14.8 700 AM 1/26 CoCoRaHS ENE East Aurora 14.7 700 AM 1/26 CoCoRaHS 1 SSE Eden 14.3 730 AM 1/26 CoCoRaHS WSW Hamburg 12.5 700 AM 1/26 CoCoRaHS 2 WNW West Seneca 12.5 745 AM 1/26 CoCoRaHS 3 SSW Marilla 12.2 631 AM 1/26 TRAINED SPOTTER 2 ENE Colden 12.2 800 AM 1/26 CoCoRaHS 3 E Williamsville 10.0 700 AM 1/26 CoCORaHS 3 WSW Elma 9.2 700 AM 1/26 CoCoRaHS WSW Hamburg 7.5 700 AM 1/26 CoCoRaHS 2 SE Glenwood 7.0 800 AM 1/26 CoCoRaHS ESE Kenmore 4.4 745 AM 1/26 CoCoRaHS 2 SSW Blasdell 3.5 720 AM 1/26 CoCoRaHS 2 NW Cheektowaga 3.0 700 AM 1/26 CoCoRaHS 3 NE Tonawanda 3.0 800 AM 1/26 CoCoRaHS 5 NNE Amherst 1.9 800 AM 1/26 CoCoRaHS 2 NNE Tonawanda 1.0 924 AM 1/26 CoCoRaHS ...Genesee County... 1 W Batavia 7.0 700 AM 1/26 CoCoRaHS 2 NE Stafford 7.0 700 AM 1/26 CoCoRaHS ...Jefferson County... S Watertown 25.5 656 AM 1/26 CoCoRaHS Natural Bridge 17.4 655 AM 1/26 Trained Spotter ...Lewis County... 5 SSW Harrisville 14.5 700 AM 1/26 CoCoRaHS 1 E Osceola 5.0 700 AM 1/26 Co-Op Observer Chases Lake 0.9 600 AM 1/26 Co-Op Observer ...Livingston County... Avon 2.0 739 AM 1/26 Co-Op Observer ...Monroe County... 2 NE Honeoye Falls 2.6 700 AM 1/26 CoCoRaHS Rochester Airport 2.0 654 AM 1/26 ASOS 4 SSE Pittsford 1.0 800 AM 1/26 CoCoRaHS Brockport 0.7 900 AM 1/26 Co-Op Observer 5 WNW Rochester 0.5 700 AM 1/26 CoCoRaHS Scottsville 0.4 900 AM 1/26 CoCoRaHS ...Niagara County... North Tonawanda 2.1 700 AM 1/26 Co-Op Observer Pendleton 1NE 1.6 700 AM 1/26 Co-Op Observer 1 NNE North Tonawand 1.6 700 AM 1/26 CoCoRaHS 3 ESE Lockport 1.2 700 AM 1/26 CoCoRaHS 1 NE Lockport 1.2 700 AM 1/26 CoCoRaHS 6 E Niagara Falls 0.8 700 AM 1/26 CoCoRaHS 4 NE Sanborn 0.2 700 AM 1/26 Co-Op Observer ...Ontario County... Honeoye 0.5 800 AM 1/26 Co-Op Observer ...Orleans County... Medina 1.6 600 AM 1/26 Co-Op Observer WNW Medina 0.2 800 AM 1/26 CoCoRaHS ...Oswego County... 8 N Redfield 4.7 700 AM 1/26 Co-Op Observer 2 SSE Palermo 0.4 600 AM 1/26 Co-Op Observer 5 ESE Oswego 0.2 600 AM 1/26 CoCoRaHS ...Wayne County... 2 SW Walworth 2.9 700 AM 1/26 CoCoRaHS 3 ESE Macedon 1.3 533 AM 1/26 CoCoRaHS ...Wyoming County... 3 W Wyoming 21.6 700 AM 1/26 CoCoRaHS Warsaw 9.5 700 AM 1/26 Co-Op Observer 3 NNW Silver Springs 4.7 700 AM 1/26 CoCoRaHS 3 N Silver Springs 4.7 700 AM 1/26 Co-Op Observer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southbuffalowx Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: KBUF hit 20"! NEW YORK ...Cattaraugus County... Little Valley 4.0 700 AM 1/26 Co-Op Observer SSE Ischua 1.7 700 AM 1/26 CoCoRaHS ...Chautauqua County... Perrysburg 14.9 700 AM 1/26 Co-Op Observer 1 S Dunkirk 9.2 700 AM 1/26 Co-Op Observer Silver Creek 8.5 730 AM 1/26 Co-Op Observer 1 SW Dunkirk 6.2 700 AM 1/26 CoCoRaHS 3 N Celoron 2.7 600 AM 1/26 CoCoRaHS Falconer 2.4 700 AM 1/26 CoCoRaHS 4 ENE Jamestown 1.7 600 AM 1/26 Co-Op Observer ...Erie County... 4 ESE North Boston 21.3 700 AM 1/26 CoCoRaHS Buffalo Airport 20.0 700 AM 1/26 ASOS 2 NE Boston 17.0 830 AM 1/26 CoCoRaHS 1 W Colden 15.0 730 AM 1/26 Co-Op Observer 3 E Williamsville 15.0 700 AM 1/26 CoCoRaHS ESE Clarence Center 14.8 700 AM 1/26 CoCoRaHS ENE East Aurora 14.7 700 AM 1/26 CoCoRaHS 1 SSE Eden 14.3 730 AM 1/26 CoCoRaHS WSW Hamburg 12.5 700 AM 1/26 CoCoRaHS 2 WNW West Seneca 12.5 745 AM 1/26 CoCoRaHS 3 SSW Marilla 12.2 631 AM 1/26 TRAINED SPOTTER 2 ENE Colden 12.2 800 AM 1/26 CoCoRaHS 3 E Williamsville 10.0 700 AM 1/26 CoCORaHS 3 WSW Elma 9.2 700 AM 1/26 CoCoRaHS WSW Hamburg 7.5 700 AM 1/26 CoCoRaHS 2 SE Glenwood 7.0 800 AM 1/26 CoCoRaHS ESE Kenmore 4.4 745 AM 1/26 CoCoRaHS 2 SSW Blasdell 3.5 720 AM 1/26 CoCoRaHS 2 NW Cheektowaga 3.0 700 AM 1/26 CoCoRaHS 3 NE Tonawanda 3.0 800 AM 1/26 CoCoRaHS 5 NNE Amherst 1.9 800 AM 1/26 CoCoRaHS 2 NNE Tonawanda 1.0 924 AM 1/26 CoCoRaHS ...Genesee County... 1 W Batavia 7.0 700 AM 1/26 CoCoRaHS 2 NE Stafford 7.0 700 AM 1/26 CoCoRaHS ...Jefferson County... S Watertown 25.5 656 AM 1/26 CoCoRaHS Natural Bridge 17.4 655 AM 1/26 Trained Spotter ...Lewis County... 5 SSW Harrisville 14.5 700 AM 1/26 CoCoRaHS 1 E Osceola 5.0 700 AM 1/26 Co-Op Observer Chases Lake 0.9 600 AM 1/26 Co-Op Observer ...Livingston County... Avon 2.0 739 AM 1/26 Co-Op Observer ...Monroe County... 2 NE Honeoye Falls 2.6 700 AM 1/26 CoCoRaHS Rochester Airport 2.0 654 AM 1/26 ASOS 4 SSE Pittsford 1.0 800 AM 1/26 CoCoRaHS Brockport 0.7 900 AM 1/26 Co-Op Observer 5 WNW Rochester 0.5 700 AM 1/26 CoCoRaHS Scottsville 0.4 900 AM 1/26 CoCoRaHS ...Niagara County... North Tonawanda 2.1 700 AM 1/26 Co-Op Observer Pendleton 1NE 1.6 700 AM 1/26 Co-Op Observer 1 NNE North Tonawand 1.6 700 AM 1/26 CoCoRaHS 3 ESE Lockport 1.2 700 AM 1/26 CoCoRaHS 1 NE Lockport 1.2 700 AM 1/26 CoCoRaHS 6 E Niagara Falls 0.8 700 AM 1/26 CoCoRaHS 4 NE Sanborn 0.2 700 AM 1/26 Co-Op Observer ...Ontario County... Honeoye 0.5 800 AM 1/26 Co-Op Observer ...Orleans County... Medina 1.6 600 AM 1/26 Co-Op Observer WNW Medina 0.2 800 AM 1/26 CoCoRaHS ...Oswego County... 8 N Redfield 4.7 700 AM 1/26 Co-Op Observer 2 SSE Palermo 0.4 600 AM 1/26 Co-Op Observer 5 ESE Oswego 0.2 600 AM 1/26 CoCoRaHS ...Wayne County... 2 SW Walworth 2.9 700 AM 1/26 CoCoRaHS 3 ESE Macedon 1.3 533 AM 1/26 CoCoRaHS ...Wyoming County... 3 W Wyoming 21.6 700 AM 1/26 CoCoRaHS Warsaw 9.5 700 AM 1/26 Co-Op Observer 3 NNW Silver Springs 4.7 700 AM 1/26 CoCoRaHS 3 N Silver Springs 4.7 700 AM 1/26 Co-Op Observer I was just checking the top 10 snowiest months of January, and they are only like 2.5" away from making that list this month! There is definitely even a good shot at 50", depending how next week's lake effect storm pans out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Euro was pretty big hit, especially for me and matt with over an inch LE.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Those reports capture it pretty well. Biggest snows were south and east of a line from just north of the galleria to just north of the airport to roughly Maple and Transit to Clarence Center. I have to drive out to Klein and Transit this afternoon so I can try to verify where the cutoff of that band is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 26, 2019 Author Share Posted January 26, 2019 When was the last 20" event for KBUF? Jan (17.6") & Nov 2014 (16.9") were close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 26 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Euro was pretty big hit, especially for me and matt with over an inch LE.. That has me at probably 1.3 inches. Is it our turn now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 I'm sure hoping haha Then we get a little lake effect to boot.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 26, 2019 Author Share Posted January 26, 2019 Next event: Tonight a weak area of low pressure will move from the Ohio Valley to the western end of Lake Ontario. Weak warm advection ahead of this system may bring a few scattered light snow showers to the western Southern Tier this evening. A more widespread area of light snow will develop across Western NY by late tonight. By daybreak, there will be 1-3 inches of new snow across the Niagara Frontier and the Western Southern Tier, with less than an inch east of Batavia. Off of Lake Erie, the best chance for lake snow will be over the Western Southern Tier north to Wyoming and southern Erie counties. Lake enhanced/effect should start out more north toward the City of Buffalo and the Northtowns, but as winds shift from 240 degrees early in the morning to 260 degrees in the early afternoon and then to 280 degrees by the evening, the band of lake effect snow that does develop will drop south through the day. As this occurs, snow that accumulates from the lake, will be fairly well spread out, keeping any one location to around 3 to 5 inches, with these amounts mostly across the higher terrain of the Western Southern Tier and Southern Erie County. These amounts will be near advisory level, and future updates will address the need for an advisory if it is warranted. Lake effect off of Lake Erie will diminish in coverage through the evening as the trough over the area tracks northeast. Off of Lake Ontario, lake enhanced snow behind the departing cold front and light synoptic snow will start in the early afternoon and transition to lake effect by the mid to late afternoon. Initially a west-southwest flow will start the lake effect over the northern portion of the North Country. Winds shift more to a westerly (260- 280) direction and the longer fetch of the lake allows a better developed lake band to form and focus on the Tug Hill during the late afternoon and into the evening. Guidance is suggesting the potential for a three lake connection with the Lake Ontario band, with the connection extending upstream to Lake Huron and Lake Superior. Winds will continue to shift through the evening to a more northwest direction and then northerly by the middle of the night on Sunday night. This will result in the band shifting south through the early morning, and then dissipating with minimal fetch. Some guidance is holding on to the band over the lake through the morning via a convergence zone over the lake with the much colder airmass over the lake, but winds appear to be a bit to strong to support this. Area east of Lake Ontario, especially over the Tug Hill can expect to receive up to 4 to 8 inches of snow for Sunday into Sunday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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