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Upstate/Eastern New York


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18 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Yeah the highest rates I’ve ever seen was Nemo here in CT. Truly extraordinary.

I like being out in the elements as well, but not on the road where I know people are ridiculous and I haven’t had a lot of hazardous wx driving experience. I like setting up shop in a location and doing long walks. For me it’s incredibly relaxing mentally with all the physical challenge you could ask for.

I chased that big January 2018 blizzard in Ocean City, MD and the mile walk I took was the most grueling thing I ever did. So much fun.

This summer I did a long walk in an 111 heat index. Great, but snow is better lol.

Agree. Jeb walks are the best way to enjoy the elements. I do quite a bit of cross country skiing too. 

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Another synoptic system will cross the area late Monday through
Tuesday. Model guidance continues to show a variety of track
solutions with this system. Some runs, including the 00Z GFS and GEM
take the low center to the north and west of our region, which would
bring a brief warm-up and possible mixed precipitation or even rain
to our region. The ECMWF on the other hand takes a more southern
track, which would keep our area all snow. If the more southern
track verifies this system could be a respectable snow producer for
our region.

Regardless of the eventual track of this system, model guidance
remains in good agreement in bringing another strong push of true
arctic air into the Great Lakes and New England for the second half
of next week. 850mb temps may bottom out at -30C, which would
support near record cold across our region.
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29 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Another synoptic system will cross the area late Monday through
Tuesday. Model guidance continues to show a variety of track
solutions with this system. Some runs, including the 00Z GFS and GEM
take the low center to the north and west of our region, which would
bring a brief warm-up and possible mixed precipitation or even rain
to our region. The ECMWF on the other hand takes a more southern
track, which would keep our area all snow. If the more southern
track verifies this system could be a respectable snow producer for
our region.

Regardless of the eventual track of this system, model guidance
remains in good agreement in bringing another strong push of true
arctic air into the Great Lakes and New England for the second half
of next week. 850mb temps may bottom out at -30C, which would
support near record cold across our region.

Come on Euro!!!

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Euro's respectable event for Tues-Wed of next week can get a bit interesting,  It's not a huge snow producer for the area, but its the only model that stays primarilly snow for the event.  I'd be more inclined to believe the Euro over other guidance when we're within 4days so its a lock that we see something for tues-wed but we just need others to follow suit,  Here's the Euro and it doesn't look bad at all and I think the Euro is Waaaayyyyy off with its band placement as these band are not going steady state for more than 6hrs in any one area,  now I know totals have went down by half in some places!  Bands are just too transient for blockbuster totals but we'll see:

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102871030_download(11).thumb.png.4fc701743c571e429feed5b8335a385f.png

1494769182_download(12).thumb.png.ac870eddcc534e7917a1422333e4db3b.png

 

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8 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Pretty good Ice Jam on Caz this morning. Closing in on bank full...
ddbb5ec4f7507591896e93efd672197e.jpg


.

Never thought anything of Ice Jams really till we met up and saw that huge one bust up right Beaneth the bridge we were on and it felt like an earthquake! Then we saw that jet ski get slammed up against the bridge! Definitley wasn’t expecting any ice jams at this time so kind of surprised to see this. 

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I think the reason my NWS forecast is always so wrong is they use the Canadian way to much lol 

But never hear them mention the ukmet, do they not see verification..

With this event they mentioned the GFS/Nam/ggem but not the euro which is had the same wind direction for 3days now lol

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3 hours ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

No one else knew about the 3" deluge we just received? Gotta love when they say rain, and it turns into a flooding rn, unreal, but when its supposed to snow heavy, we get pixie dust for flakes, lol!

0.50" in my rain gauge this a.m. snowcover down from 14" to 10". Still 41 degrees here this a.m.  The snow has absorbed this pretty well but another day of 40 degrees will chomp into this.

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