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How is your Snow pack hanging in there in Western New York? Looks like you are already down to just a few inches?!?!
Had to shovel the roof today. Snow is knee deep here, so I shouldn't complain. That is still below normal depth for here though...lol
Just went above freezing here...everything is layered in ice now.


Easily lost half of it today. I didn’t think it would take as much of a hit as it did. Maybe 5” ballpark average snow depth still?


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hey guys i live in the city of oswego...how am i looking snow accumulation wise with this impending lake effect event...reading the forum discussion it looks as tho the winds as shifted to a rarely sustainable w-nw flow which i think would be primed for oswego to really be the bullseye..wanting to see your guys expertise and thoughts on who looks to be in the sweet spot being that were only 36 hours away from this lake effect event..thanks guys!!!

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28 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Ouch! I see the dewpoint is in the mid 40s there. That will destroy it.

Yeah it got a lot warmer and the dew point much higher than anticipated...osu was wondering why I was so concerned about these upcoming lows cutting to our west. Im not the snow then melt 4 days later BS.

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45 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

NWS buffalo now is suggesting maybe enough warm air for mixed precip next Tuesday or even plain rain for a time but for consideration to continuity and climatology will keep it all snow for now. If we get another cutter after the bullshit rains today that's gonna suck.

haha ffs. I would be at a loss if of words if we see rain again. freezer-rain-freezer-rain-freezer. GTA cant catch a break 

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34 minutes ago, mattny88 said:

hey guys i live in the city of oswego...how am i looking snow accumulation wise with this impending lake effect event...reading the forum discussion it looks as tho the winds as shifted to a rarely sustainable w-nw flow which i think would be primed for oswego to really be the bullseye..wanting to see your guys expertise and thoughts on who looks to be in the sweet spot being that were only 36 hours away from this lake effect event..thanks guys!!!

Check back tomorrow Matt as we'll have a better idea but I think Oswego is in a good, not great, spot for the event but tomorrow everything should be a lot clearer.

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2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Tugs going to get pounded next few weeks

gfs_asnow_neus_41.png

fv3p_asnow_neus_41.png

gem_asnow_neus_40.png

Not a good sign for synoptic. If you look at the map as a whole only the GEM looks like a track is there...the other 2 are all lake driven...and once Erie freezes I think we may be struggling to get storms on the cold side. It's early, sort of, but I think at this moment climo snowfall in Buffalo will finish below average.

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1 minute ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Not a good sign for synoptic. If you look at the map as a whole only the GEM looks like a track is there...the other 2 are all lake driven...and once Erie freezes I think we may be struggling to get storms on the cold side. It's early, sort of, but I think at this moment climo snowfall in Buffalo will finish below average.

The clipper pattern is the best pattern for consistent snowfall in Western New York. Lake enhanced is still produced in front of clippers even while the lake is frozen. 1977 had a frozen lake Erie in late December and featured the snowiest months in Jan and Feb. 

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6 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Tugs going to get pounded next few weeks

gfs_asnow_neus_41.png

fv3p_asnow_neus_41.png

gem_asnow_neus_40.png

They get a lot of at bats through the course of a winter. With the long fetch and the orographic effect, it’s way harder for the Tug to fail for an entire winter than for them to hit a huge jackpot at some point.

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Just now, BuffaloWeather said:

The clipper pattern is the best pattern for consistent snowfall in Western New York. Lake enhanced is still produced in front of clippers even while the lake is frozen. 1977 had a frozen lake Erie in late December and featured the snowiest months in Jan and Feb. 

If I recall, 2014 was a season when cold air and a parade of clippers kept piling on the Buffalo snowfall totals.

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4 minutes ago, WNash said:

If I recall, 2014 was a season when cold air and a parade of clippers kept piling on the Buffalo snowfall totals.

Yeah it froze in first week of January with that really cold 2' LES event for Buffalo Southtowns. I think that was the year on Valentines day we had that clipper with a fully frozen lake get enhanced snow. Remember 5-6" in a few hours. 

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Heres the video, the lake was fully frozen 2-3' feet thick as this time. (Sorry this was 2015, but point still stands, the lake was frozen.)

Driving in Hamburg New York during an intense band of Lake enhanced snow. snowfall rates of 3" per hour were found within these bands Snowfall totals projected to be in the 8-14" range.

 

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3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Awesome video, though you’d never catch me driving in that lol. Sometimes I wonder if it’s better to chase an event with insane hourly rates or a long duration cabin crusher.

I've driven in some of the craziest snowfall rates you would ever see. I remember one time driving home from skiing I legitimately couldn't see anything. I just drove straight and hoped for the best. I knew the band was insane but had to leave. We pulled over and waited for it to pass because it was that bad. It was mainly due to the fact that there was no light on that thruway, pure darkness. If it was a town or city I'd be fine. 

In response to your question I'm all about being in the elements. I don't get the same enjoyment looking out my window. I have a AWD car that plows right through most piles so its always fun driving around in it, that is unless visibility gets so bad you cannot see anything. You'll see that in the really strong events off both lakes. I've never seen a synoptic event with snowfall rates I'm scared to drive in, I doubt they even exist aside from that Nemo band in Connecticut a few years back. 

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27 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

The clipper pattern is the best pattern for consistent snowfall in Western New York. Lake enhanced is still produced in front of clippers even while the lake is frozen. 1977 had a frozen lake Erie in late December and featured the snowiest months in Jan and Feb. 

Normally I would agree but I believe the pattern were in right now will continue. Nuisance clippers with stronger systems pushing the arctic air out fast leaving us with rain. I'm not sure why there's so much hype regarding big snow cover and consistent cold over the eastern great lakes when that pattern has been advertised for weeks but never gets fully entrenched. 

 

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22 minutes ago, mississaugasnow said:

Normally I would agree but I believe the pattern were in right now will continue. Nuisance clippers with stronger systems pushing the arctic air out fast leaving us with rain. I'm not sure why there's so much hype regarding big snow cover and consistent cold over the eastern great lakes when that pattern has been advertised for weeks but never gets fully entrenched. 

 

It is what it is. Progressive El Niño crud. 

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Just now, southbuffalowx said:

And more importantly, it seems to be trending north! Still going to remain skeptical, but hopeful

Yeh after today's shitshow we need to replenish...i had expected to lose some snowpack but I'm also surprised how much is gone.  That 5.1 at KBUF would be great and as long as next Tuesdays event doesn't take a left over lake Erie our pack should be all the way back. 

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