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Upstate/Eastern New York


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3 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

And lastly the LES event depicted on the euro is mainly WSW with a little westerly, keeps me on the southern fringes, for now..

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I'd be willing to share the love after getting almost 30"! Lol...almost a 1/3 of our season average in a couple of days. 

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What is that 8 hrs in Pulaski:P

Kbuf

The pattern will turn much more wintry again for the end of the week
and next weekend after our brief warm-up on Wednesday. The +PNA
pattern will re-amplify significantly by next weekend across the
North American continent, with a deep trough carving out in the
east. This will push temperatures to well below average again. This
cold pattern will have staying power, with long range outlooks and
ensembles suggesting it lasting through the end of the month and
beyond.
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Anyone have any ice cover sat images for Lake Erie?  The one I use isn't available due to g'vt shutdown.

Based on these webcams, it looks like the western basin is completely frozen:

https://www.shoresandislands.com/webcams/

https://www.earthcam.com/usa/ohio/cleveland/?cam=pierw

BUT....this one from Long Point shows wide open water: https://stephen6605.wixsite.com/corkepoint/live-stream

About what I would expect at this point.  Western basin mostly frozen, eastern basin mostly open.  

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9 minutes ago, Buffalo Bumble said:

Anyone have any ice cover sat images for Lake Erie?  The one I use isn't available due to g'vt shutdown.

Based on these webcams, it looks like the western basin is completely frozen:

https://www.shoresandislands.com/webcams/

https://www.earthcam.com/usa/ohio/cleveland/?cam=pierw

BUT....this one from Long Point shows wide open water: https://stephen6605.wixsite.com/corkepoint/live-stream

About what I would expect at this point.  Western basin mostly frozen, eastern basin mostly open.  

As of yesterday, almost completely wide open. 

 

egg_east.gif

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Man Erie won't be frozen till first week of February if we get sustain cold you guys are fine for at least two to three weeks! If temps are like they are now for an extended period of time then I'd imagine it would freeze a lot quicker but it won't freeze in a week with temps in a mid-twenties and lows in a teen's no way but I don't live there so I may be wrong Buffalo weather knows all about Lake Erie

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After measuring about six or seven places in my yard I averaged close to 17 in which sounds about right so I'll take it nothing like what you guys got in Monroe or Wayne but it was definitely a nice system for you guys but you guys definitely deserved it.

It's funny cuz I drove to Liverpool into Syracuse and they have to have about five or six probably close to 8 in less than I do as I'm about 25 miles north of the city but it's definitely a difference Lake Effect hit us a lot more last night than it did in the city

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.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
...Potential for icy mixed precipitation...

This will be a fairly active period...one that will probably start
with some mixed precipitation and an eventual winter weather
advisory. Stay tuned as the event nears for another round of winter
weather headlines.

Shortwave energy...seen in WV imagery over the inter-mountain region
late this afternoon...will eject out across the Plains during the
day Tuesday. This will be accompanied by another instance where the
two main branches of the jet will phase over the Mississippi Valley.
Unlike the case from our major winter storm from the past weekend
though...the northern branch will dominate the flow and will have
more of an influence on the path of the resulting cyclone. Before
its all said and done...the mature sfc low will move by to our west
on a track that is not dissimilar to those that generate powerful
wind storms for our forecast area. Fortunately...the low is not
forecast to significantly strengthen.

In any case...the consolidating sfc low will move to about Chicago
by the end of Tuesday night...while the arctic high that had been
dominating our weather will be centered off the Mid Atlantic coast.
The will establish a moderately strong warm advective pattern over
the Lower Great Lakes...aided by a 50kt low level jet that will
nudge into our area after midnight. The arrival of the strong low
level jet will be the main source of lift for the expected shower
activity with a little help being supplied by a 100kt H25 jet. While
strong agreement between the various guidance packages will lend to
high confidence in the pops for Tuesday night...there is lot of
uncertainty as to the p-type that will be experienced.

At first glance...the warm advection appears to eliminate the
dendritic growth zone. Given the synoptic pattern...one could easily
conclude that any snow at the onset will change to a period of
freezing rain...then just to rain. This would especially be the case
for sites WEST of the Genesee valley. One problem is that guidance
is suggesting that a relatively dry environment under 10k ft will
lend itself to strong dynamic cooling through evaporation during the
first few hours of pcpn. There is also some question as to whether a
dendritic growth zone at alto-cu level will be able to `seed` the
underlying increase in low level moisture. If both conditions listed
actually come to pass...then the p type will stay as snow for the
bulk of the night...particularly for the Finger Lakes to the Eastern
Lake Ontario region. Otherwise...snow at the onset will transition
to freezing rain...then just to rain. This while complex transition
will almost certainly lead to winter weather advisories being issued
for the threat of freezing rain. Pops overnight will range from high
chance in the Finger Lakes and interior of the Southern Tier to
categorical over the far west. It should go without saying that a
non-diurnal temperature trend is anticipated during this synoptic
set up...with mins generally occurring before midnight.
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Anyone have any ice cover sat images for Lake Erie?  The one I use isn't available due to g'vt shutdown.
Based on these webcams, it looks like the western basin is completely frozen:
https://www.shoresandislands.com/webcams/
https://www.earthcam.com/usa/ohio/cleveland/?cam=pierw
BUT....this one from Long Point shows wide open water: https://stephen6605.wixsite.com/corkepoint/live-stream
About what I would expect at this point.  Western basin mostly frozen, eastern basin mostly open.  


f03c63e02d46a05ad616310aea3d0285.jpg
b4ac49c850ecddf06f4b7e4ff4d87411.gif
27f2e0adbfc234b576bc80d92c94c58e.gif

Not as good as the MODIS view but if you jive them all up it’s pretty close. Lot of open water still but the clock is ticking!


.
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A very strong shortwave will dig south towards the Upper Great Lakes
Thursday night. This will help to drive an arctic cold front to our
doorstep by daybreak Friday while a weak sfc reflection will be
parked over southern Ontario in the vcnty of Lake Huron. The
boundary will generate scattered snow showers over our region with
lake enhanced snows being found east of both lakes. The lake effect
could become significant as the cold air deepens and a solid
westerly flow becomes established. Stay tuned...especially those
in and around the Tug Hill area.

The base of a longwave trough will push across the Lower Great Lakes
on Friday while the aforementioned arctic front will be stalled near
Lake Ontario. This will set the stage for an even colder day across
our region...but more importantly...the persistent westerly flow in
the vcnty of the boundary will favor an impressive plume of lake
snow near the Tug Hill. The remainder of the region will experience
scattered snow showers...but accumulations should be confined to
areas east of both lakes.
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Confidence is off the charts that temperatures will average below
normal during this period...as a highly amplified pattern will be in
place across the continent. A very staunch ridge centered off the
west coast will define a +PNA pattern that will be coupled with a
persistent ridge over Greenland...a CLASSIC cold weather pattern.
The pair of ridges will lock an expansive closed low over eastern
Canada...part of which will include the polar vortex. This notorious
feature is forecast to push at least 500 miles further south than
usual...possibly settling between Lake Superior and James Bay. The
coldest air in the northern hemisphere will not only be on this side
of the pole...but because of this pattern it could conceivably be on
THIS side of James Bay! This pool of glacial air will also be
supported by a persistent cross polar flow...which will not only
prevent the airmass from modifying...but will also serve to keep it
`charged`.

As for the day to day weather...a cold southwesterly flow on
Saturday will supported some lake snows northeast of both lakes.
Otherwise...general subsidence should keep the bulk of the region
pcpn free with max temps generally in the teens.

A difficult to time clipper will then race by to our north Saturday
night or Sunday. This will keep scattered snow showers in place
while also introducing the next round of arctic air. Will have to
broad brush the pops given the 12 hour difference in the timing
between the various ensembles.

A more significant storm system is then expected to impact the Great
Lakes on Monday. There is a very large spread in solutions though
between the various medium range packages...so will have to continue
to broad brush the pops with chc pops for snow.
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21 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Confidence is off the charts that temperatures will average below
normal during this period...as a highly amplified pattern will be in
place across the continent. A very staunch ridge centered off the
west coast will define a +PNA pattern that will be coupled with a
persistent ridge over Greenland...a CLASSIC cold weather pattern.
The pair of ridges will lock an expansive closed low over eastern
Canada...part of which will include the polar vortex. This notorious
feature is forecast to push at least 500 miles further south than
usual...possibly settling between Lake Superior and James Bay. The
coldest air in the northern hemisphere will not only be on this side
of the pole...but because of this pattern it could conceivably be on
THIS side of James Bay! This pool of glacial air will also be
supported by a persistent cross polar flow...which will not only
prevent the airmass from modifying...but will also serve to keep it
`charged`.

As for the day to day weather...a cold southwesterly flow on
Saturday will supported some lake snows northeast of both lakes.
Otherwise...general subsidence should keep the bulk of the region
pcpn free with max temps generally in the teens.

A difficult to time clipper will then race by to our north Saturday
night or Sunday. This will keep scattered snow showers in place
while also introducing the next round of arctic air. Will have to
broad brush the pops given the 12 hour difference in the timing
between the various ensembles.

A more significant storm system is then expected to impact the Great
Lakes on Monday. There is a very large spread in solutions though
between the various medium range packages...so will have to continue
to broad brush the pops with chc pops for snow.

Ding ding on the Saturday SW flow!!!

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So I read the KBUF AFD this morning, specifically the long range for friday through next Monday. The discuss the perfect set up for cross polar air die to a +PNA and Greenland block supercharging the air as the PV drops to the northern Great Lakes! They state this will have lasting power through the foreseeable future too!!! Elaborate then why the next 3 systems after that all cut west of us giving us rain instead of snow?!?!?! 

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