cae Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 RGEM ensemble looks to be in line with the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 14 minutes ago, yoda said: FWIW, CTP went WSWatch for the counties bordering the Mason-Dixon line And PIT issued WSWatch for Garrett/Tucker/Preston Here's the text of the WSWatch for the mountains...should be a fun event there this weekend...hoping this afternoon's Euro with the warmer solution isn't right. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 254 PM EST Thu Jan 17 2019 MDZ001-WVZ512>514-180400- /O.NEW.KPBZ.WS.A.0002.190119T1200Z-190120T1800Z/ /O.CON.KPBZ.WW.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-190118T1500Z/ Garrett-Eastern Preston-Western Tucker-Eastern Tucker- Including the cities of Mountain Lake Park, Oakland MD, Grantsville, Terra Alta, Rowlesburg, Hazelton, Parsons, Hendricks, Saint George, Davis, Thomas, and Canaan Valley 254 PM EST Thu Jan 17 2019 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY... ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Snow today. Heavy mixed precipitation possible this weekend. Snow accumulations of 1 to 4 inches is expected through tonight. Additional snow accumulations of 2 to 8 inches and ice accumulations of up to one tenth of an inch is possible Saturday morning through Sunday afternoon. * WHERE...In Maryland, Garrett County. In West Virginia, Eastern Preston, Western Tucker and Eastern Tucker Counties. * WHEN...For the Winter Weather Advisory, until 10 AM EST Friday. For the Winter Storm Watch, from Saturday morning through Sunday afternoon. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 hoping someone can help. my bestie is off to ski this weekend in VA (the place starts with an 'M'?) i need to let her know whether she should drive home saturday, or sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, mappy said: hoping someone can help. my bestie is off to ski this weekend in VA (the place starts with an 'M'?) i need to let her know whether she should drive home saturday, or sunday. i think sunday is safer...sat pm and sat night could have ice issues up there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, mappy said: hoping someone can help. my bestie is off to ski this weekend in VA (the place starts with an 'M'?) i need to let her know whether she should drive home saturday, or sunday. I am assuming she is at Massanutten which is close to Harrisonburg? If so, she wont see any snow/ice coming up 81 until she gets around Winchester on Saturday is how it looks on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, mappy said: hoping someone can help. my bestie is off to ski this weekend in VA (the place starts with an 'M'?) i need to let her know whether she should drive home saturday, or sunday. Might be Massanautun (I can't remember how to spell that at all lol). I'd say Saturday if she doesn't mind the rain during the afternoon or evening. Sunday morning is when the front rolls through and we should improve precip wise by the afternoon. It'll be pretty windy though. I'd say Sunday just so she's safe from the precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 7 minutes ago, Ji said: i think sunday is safer...sat pm and sat night could have ice issues up there 6 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: I am assuming she is at Massanutten which is close to Harrisonburg? If so, she wont see any snow/ice coming up 81 until she gets around Winchester on Saturday is how it looks on the Euro. 6 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Might be Massanautun (I can't remember how to spell that at all lol). I'd say Saturday if she doesn't mind the rain during the afternoon or evening. Sunday morning is when the front rolls through and we should improve precip wise by the afternoon. It'll be pretty windy though. I'd say Sunday just so she's safe from the precip. yes, Massanutten (thanks, couldn't remember the name). My understanding is she is traveling through Northern VA, as she has family near Purceville, so i'd assume she has to drive back that way first before heading north. so i'll tell her sunday. thanks, guys! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Hey.. I have a decent snow cover still. It would be weird for it to rain on top of it because it's not going to go away.. strange times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 18Z NAM is a thump followed by ice and a dry slot in the northern Shen Valley. Has no back end love at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ECsnowflake Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Hi everyone, If I can get some guidance too on upcoming travel plans, I would really appreciate it. I am flying out of BWI this weekend. With the upcoming dicey forecast, I bought two flights with points- one is leaving Saturday at 11:05 AM and the other one leaves Sunday at 10AM. Whichever one I decide not to use, the points will just go back in my points bank. I just need to make sure I get out this weekend. Which one do you think I should go for/ will have the best chance of getting to the airport and taking off? Thank you in advance, so much. I will be driving to the airport from HoCo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, ECsnowflake said: Hi everyone, If I can get some guidance too on upcoming travel plans, I would really appreciate it. I am flying out of BWI this weekend. With the upcoming dicey forecast, I bought two flights with points- one is leaving Saturday at 11:05 AM and the other one leaves Sunday at 10AM. Whichever one I decide not to use, the points will just go back in my points bank. I just need to make sure I get out this weekend. Which one do you think I should go for/ will have the best chance of getting to the airport and taking off? Thank you in advance, so much. I will be driving to the airport from HoCo. Airports close for rain now? I'd be more worried about the lack of TSA agents 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 ICON still not totally folding. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 13 minutes ago, ECsnowflake said: Hi everyone, If I can get some guidance too on upcoming travel plans, I would really appreciate it. I am flying out of BWI this weekend. With the upcoming dicey forecast, I bought two flights with points- one is leaving Saturday at 11:05 AM and the other one leaves Sunday at 10AM. Whichever one I decide not to use, the points will just go back in my points bank. I just need to make sure I get out this weekend. Which one do you think I should go for/ will have the best chance of getting to the airport and taking off? Thank you in advance, so much. I will be driving to the airport from HoCo. I would fly on Saturday. but just for comfort. It is going to be windy as crap on Sunday. And I cant stand rough flights. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 16 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: 18Z NAM is a thump followed by ice and a dry slot in the northern Shen Valley. Has no back end love at all. It's not very warm either, it's rain for me but not 50 and rain 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ECsnowflake Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Thank you for the feedback, I appreciate it very much! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 The NAM definitely is making me raise an eyebrow. So close to subfreezing for the whole storm down here in Charlottesville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: The NAM definitely is making me raise an eyebrow. So close to subfreezing for the whole storm down here in Charlottesville. Really. Interesting. With snow on the ground good things can happen. Or not. Would rather have it even 1 degree can make a difference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 It's not very warm either, it's rain for me but not 50 and rain33 and rain is like 80 and rain. Still wet 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, Ji said: 29 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: It's not very warm either, it's rain for me but not 50 and rain 33 and rain is like 80 and rain. Still wet no doubt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 FOLKS,,,, the 18z ARPEGE is LIT 2 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 GFS almost wants to give us some snowTV again for Sunday. I'd happily take my arctic front with some snowTV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 42 minutes ago, Ji said: 1 hour ago, leesburg 04 said: It's not very warm either, it's rain for me but not 50 and rain 33 and rain is like 80 and rain. Still wet Not if there's snow on the ground. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattskiva Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 4 hours ago, nj2va said: Here's the text of the WSWatch for the mountains...should be a fun event there this weekend...hoping this afternoon's Euro with the warmer solution isn't right. Had plans to go to Canaan, really hard call on what it's going to be like up there. They've gotten rain from a bunch of storms in Dec but above 3,000 feet there might be enough cold for this not to be a total disaster. I like the 2-8 inch forecast... reallly you could almost say 0-12" because it could easily bust high or low up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 9 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Ice potential per CTP . I couldn't find LWX .You can get the idea for the nw crew. North Baltimore co. on west in the threat . Catoctins look to be .20" ish and of course this will change in nowcast mode no doubt . Im expecting an inch or so of snow/sleet Saturday afternoon followed by some ZR and changing to plain rain after midnight. Was hoping for more of an impactful event in the northern tier but looks unlikely now. I'm becoming skeptical I see any snow at all being on the southern edge, but any snow is good snow. Ready to get the pattern change in full swing and start tracking our KU lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 10 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Ice potential per CTP . I couldn't find LWX .You can get the idea for the nw crew. North Baltimore co. on west in the threat . Catoctins look to be .20" ish and of course this will change in nowcast mode no doubt . Yeah. That is ugly. .25 ice on top of the way my neighborhood roads look will be something else. And the thing is even if you rain for the majority of it. You are gonna flash freeze whatever you have. Monday morning is gonna be nasty. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snjókoma Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: These events seem to always come down to the hour if not while unfolding before our eyes . The bolded is probably a decent call . I Personally think a mini snow thump is still possible 1-4" up along the M/D line west of 83 . I also think there's a reasonable chance the zrain holds on longer . Still 36 -48 hrs out.. will be fun tracking I remember an April or Late March event a couple years ago where some thought we would see a slushy coating before the changeover to rain, but somehow parts of Carroll county stayed snow and got like 8"... I would never underestimate the chances of a surprise thump somewhere in jackpot land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hank Scorpio Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 14 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Yeah. That is ugly. .25 ice on top of the way my neighborhood roads look will be something else. And the thing is even if you rain for the majority of it. You are gonna flash freeze whatever you have. Monday morning is gonna be nasty. Here's the relevant 6 hour map from LWX. It also has 0.01" - 0.10" in Winchester for the following 6 hour period. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 GEFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, anotherman said: GEFS no need to go to 180hrs for this event. and then subtract .5". And all the sleet/frza the GEFS algorithm counts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 58 minutes ago, mattskiva said: Had plans to go to Canaan, really hard call on what it's going to be like up there. They've gotten rain from a bunch of storms in Dec but above 3,000 feet there might be enough cold for this not to be a total disaster. I like the 2-8 inch forecast... reallly you could almost say 0-12" because it could easily bust high or low up there. Yeah we're hosting some friends at our place in McHenry this weekend...we had plans to ski this weekend but will probably go on Sunday since it'll flip back to snow on overnight into Sunday in Deep Creek. The mountains won't stay frozen the whole time...I expect a period of rain especially for the highest elevations in WV. CAD doesn't hold on long at the highest elevations in these setups when we have an inland runner with a strong WAA push. We'll flip to rain Saturday night if I had to guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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