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Bob Chill

MLK Weekend Event - Making Lemonade Out of Lemons

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Just now, Ji said:

they arent allowed too so they show sleet/zr as rain. 

Are you serious ? Lol. There not allowed too?

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1 minute ago, Ji said:

ha..icon is insane

I do not think its to be believed but the trends are obvious in the models. Lets see if the continue.

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ICON is nice up here. A few inches of snow followed by a wintry mix and temps very slightly above freezing, before it all comes crashing down to vodka cold. Of course a south shift would be much better, but this isn't too bad.

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9 minutes ago, DSF said:

Not sure if you're being serious, but it runs ne/sw in the mid-Atlantic, so you can totally be north of it. 

Not in Virginia, but I was being only quasi-snarky.

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1 minute ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

How does the low go from over snowshoe, wv at 90hr to the VA / NC border at 93 hr?

Maybe the Icon is a snow weenie too :snowing:

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12 minutes ago, DSF said:

Not sure if you're being serious, but it runs ne/sw in the mid-Atlantic, so you can totally be north of it. 

North where?  To say north of 95 tells you absolutely nothing; there is no reference.  North of 95 means very different things in richmond va than philly, for instance.

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6 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

How does the low go from over snowshoe, wv at 90hr to the VA / NC border at 93 hr?

Unless I miss my guess, one of the recent NAMs or GFS runs for this event did something similar.

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5 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

How does the low go from over snowshoe, wv at 90hr to the VA / NC border at 93 hr?

It's just the L stamp making it confusing. The area of low pressure is stretched/elongated along the the boundary. If you look at the isobars and ignore the L stamp it's less confusing. 

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Just now, stormtracker said:

If there is none that means it’s a disaster.  

You’ve chosen to ignore the GFS. Options

 

 

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Missed all the runs today so just saw Euro...a good bit colder up here and overall everywhere.  Surface never reaches freezing verbatim here. All precip types including the kit sink by the Euro  . 36 hours ago it was 50s progged before the artic front passage.  I bet it's not done trending colder either . Monday and Tuesday morning temps up here ..wow :o

Monday high in single digits per King ...94' mini redux:lmao:

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At this point, I'd only monitor the GFS for the upper level features and placement of the SLP with track. The GFS thermals are just not going to handle the setup well as it under analyzes the strength of CAD and will have a significant impact on the precip forecast algorithm. ICON did well with the last storm, but it MIGHT be too cold. We shall see. Better hedge for now is to monitor the progression at H5 in conjunction with the MSLP forecast with thermal layer forecast becoming more honed within 48 hrs of the event. Think ice could be a problem just east of the BR and our far northern tier with modest impacts felt to I-70 corridor. We've seen this type of setup numerous times. Remember climo and intertwine that with what models are spitting out. NAM nest and other short term guidance will be better tools close in to convey CAD strength and other mesoscale factors. 

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If there is none that means it’s a disaster.  
When the news is so bad that yoda wont even deliver it
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Euro brings max gust winds over 50 mph as the artic front passes Sunday am and its still has precip around . Geez...Monday is insane in the membrain... highs 7-13 area wide  with gusts 30 - 35 +. I'm suppose to be running an outdoor feeder wire to a garage that day :yikes:

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1 minute ago, losetoa6 said:

Euro brings max gust winds over 50 mph as the artic front passes Sunday am and its still has precip around . Geez...Monday is insane in the membrain... highs 7-13 area wide  with gusts 30 - 35 +. I'm suppose to be running an outdoor feeder wire to a garage that day :yikes:

Do you have access to the 18z Euro? Hearing it's not quite as good as the 12z for the northern crew?

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13 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Euro brings max gust winds over 50 mph as the artic front passes Sunday am and its still has precip around . Geez...Monday is insane in the membrain... highs 7-13 area wide  with gusts 30 - 35 +. I'm suppose to be running an outdoor feeder wire to a garage that day :yikes:

:shiver:

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8 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Do you have access to the 18z Euro? Hearing it's not quite as good as the 12z for the northern crew?

18Z looks ok for our neck of the woods.  We lose 850's by 10 p.m. Saturday evening, which is a few hours quicker than 12Z.  Surface freezing line south of us looks the same as 12Z at that time though.  We are straddling 32 by 4:00 a.m. Sunday but by then well over 0.50" of something frozen has fallen.  The cold front is already pushing in from the northwest by early in the morning on Sunday.

heres a clown map:

image.thumb.png.e828c04376314c6e295470c8d940d64a.png

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21 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Euro brings max gust winds over 50 mph as the artic front passes Sunday am and its still has precip around . Geez...Monday is insane in the membrain... highs 7-13 area wide  with gusts 30 - 35 +. I'm suppose to be running an outdoor feeder wire to a garage that day :yikes:

Are you describing the 12z run or 18z run?

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This is why I love this forum. Real experts (which I am not) and great analysis.  Then you have the iPhone weather app that makes you believe the sky is falling snow every other day. 

AF52F38E-FD07-460D-9A3C-348159E9D671.png

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17 minutes ago, Hurricanegiants said:

This is why I love this forum. Real experts (which I am not) and great analysis.  Then you have the iPhone weather app that makes you believe the sky is falling snow every other day. 

AF52F38E-FD07-460D-9A3C-348159E9D671.png

That Temps going to jump from 19-27 between 11:59PM Monday and 12:00AM Tuesday.

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1 hour ago, losetoa6 said:

Euro brings max gust winds over 50 mph as the artic front passes Sunday am and its still has precip around . Geez...Monday is insane in the membrain... highs 7-13 area wide  with gusts 30 - 35 +. I'm suppose to be running an outdoor feeder wire to a garage that day :yikes:

Man could you imagine even like 0.3" ZR on the trees then a flash freeze into the single digits with wind? 

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