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MLK Weekend Event - Making Lemonade Out of Lemons


Bob Chill
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I know the GFS gets a lot of grief from a lot of mets but it has been very consistent going back a week regarding this storm.  It was an Appalachian cutter right out of the gate and still is. I think they were over reaching yesterday with the CAD element as far as most of the Mid-Atlantic and this is going to be a good old fashioned rainstorm for most.  If you're a snow lover like myself, this is not your storm.   Never was and the sooner it gets out of here the better.  The last thing we need is to get into another relentless pattern of heavy rain every 3-4 days after being inundated in 2018.  

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8 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

Respectively disagree.  1-2 " of qpf will fall  ( that's a lot of liquid laying )and Sunday morning at  5-6 am moisture is still in the area ( rain /mix tbd) then the bottom falls out between 8 - 11 am from most guidance NW to SE . That leaves very little time for drying  imo. I think this artic front ..could ..catch up with residual moisture and give some areas a back end brief change back to frozen . 

Pretty exciting setup with this storm imo. I wish I wasn't working tomorrow morning.  It will be a great nowcast up this way 

Are the models still forecasting 1-2" of QPF?

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7 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

I wonder what was the last time we had heavy (1”+) precip falling on an existing snowpack.  Certainly Christmas 2009 counts.

At midnight on Christmas morning I was sledding in a foot of snow with temps in the mid-teens.  By late Christmas night it was all gone, washed down the storm drains.  What a wasteland in which we live.

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The snow cover is still pretty expansive out here especially north facing areas. I'm convinced enough will survive for it to still look like winter come Monday. Unlike the models I've never wavered, waffled or bounced around on that assumption. Let's see

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1 minute ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Nice picture! That almost looks like Annapolis Rocks.

This is from our vacation house in WV (1900')..  That's looking towards Winchester..   I couldn't stay in MD for this storm and watch it rain.. At least I'll get a little bit of snow or more than likely, a nice ice storm..  :D

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1 minute ago, paxpatriot said:

Some of the worst last-minute trends I can remember. Folks who were expecting a foot yesterday might be getting an inch of rain instead.

It's a good reminder for all of us along the I95 corridor. The north trend is real this winter it seems. More amped as leads shorten. Whatever you want to call it. We gotta have some wiggle room with the R/S line or someone is more than likely gonna get screwed! Checking some obs in western maryland and temps are 1-2 degrees above the forecasted highs already....

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2 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

HRRR and 3k at 12z both hinted at the same thing - tomorrow am looks really nice.  Precip and clouds clear by 7-8am and the main temp drop lags behind by a couple of hours.  HRRR has it 55 and mostly sunny at 10am right before the winds really kick up and it comes crashing down.

Sounds like a good time to wash the Jeep and quickly dry it:)

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