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MLK Weekend Event - Making Lemonade Out of Lemons


Bob Chill
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2 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said:

They seem to be being overly cautious..I guess maybe they think colder ground temps will come into play? Or the shutdown has mentally drained them. I don’t see any model that supports 1” of snow around Baltimore currently 

Most of the warnings are for ice and little snow/sleet

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3 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

I think we gust to 50 around DC with sustained at 25-30 for  hours. Who has the date of that arctic plastering frontal squall from several years ago?

Feb. 14, 2015...yes, literally Valentine's Day.  Front went through on a blast of wind and those snow squalls.  I got about 2" from that in the space of an hour or so.  Though the squalls were not wide-spread...several areas got little or nothing...depended on where you were.  The following day it was still windy and in the teens.

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The NWS forecast for Fairfax is snow with rain and snow on Saturday, changing to rain Saturday night, with a high of 41 before dropping through the day on Sunday.  That is significantly colder than the 50’s that was forecasted earlier in the week. My concern is the icing Sunday and Monday, even in this area, from the rain plus the melted snow. I would think there would be more advisories on Sunday for our area. 

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Models having hard time with lurking arctic blast, snow cover, and assertive cold high pressures in general

perhaps we spike in next two hours but forecasts  yesterday for this afternoon were highs in upper 40’s and were in upper 30’s so far.  This is not garden variety cold lurking and really any high pressure that we have had for these events has been suppressive. There have definitely been stone cold cutters but we are not in that kind of pattern now. 

 

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8 minutes ago, yoda said:

Most of the warnings are for ice and little snow/sleet

I know but I read the headline, up to 1” of snow in Baltimore:wacko2:I also don’t think it makes sense that northern Baltimore county is in a warning but northern Harford is just an advisory. Having lived up this way, those areas typically get the same type of weather in winter storms. 

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10 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Feb. 14, 2015...yes, literally Valentine's Day.  Front went through on a blast of wind and those snow squalls.  I got about 2" from that in the space of an hour or so.  Though the squalls were not wide-spread...several areas got little or nothing...depended on where you were.  The following day it was still windy and in the teens.

Thanks. It was wet and sideways like out of a fire hose, 1” in 22 minutes 

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4 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said:

I know but I read the headline, up to 1” of snow in Baltimore:wacko2:I also don’t think it makes sense that northern Baltimore county is in a warning but northern Harford is just an advisory. Having lived up this way, those areas typically get the same type of weather in winter storms. 

the warning vs advisory is for ice not snow

N Carroll and Baltimore - 1/4 ice, 1-3 snow/sleet

N Harford - 1/10 ice 1-2 snow/sleet

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4 minutes ago, notvirga! said:

I'm sure the concern is ice; I just wasn't expecting warning level accretion with heavy rain and marginal temps. But we shall see I guess. 

the warning text says until 6am sunday. i haven't looked too closely today at the models, but i was under the impression the northern areas would hang on to the cold longer before everyone is pouring rain. i thought the warning made sense. 

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1 hour ago, nj2va said:

NWS Pitt going with 4-12” for Garrett County (from south to north), 4-6” for Canaan, and 0.1-0.15” ice accretion (as of their last update which was 3am today).

Not really buying that.  I get the idea that any CAD would scour out more quickly (or never exist at all) at 3200 feet, but we're not talking about CAD with the snow scenario, and even if sea level at that latitude is in the 40s, it seems unlikely that the huge different in elevation would result in so much less accumulation in Tucker than in Garrett.  In the vast majority of scenarios, Canaan sees more accumulation than Garrett (though there are certainly some exceptions).

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21 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

Maybe all the models are wrong.

Or maybe they have foretasted the weather for Northern Maryland long enough to know that the models are almost always too quick in scouring out low level cold air.  I rememeber many instances in Westminster that the temperature never went above freezing even when all the models had it doing so hours earlier.

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I'd rather be in Baltimore than NYC for this storm. At least I know well in advance that this is mostly a rain threat down here. They're on the edge of their seats up there. Honestly based on the models, no matter what they get on the front end, it looks like it'll change to a HEAVY rain and that sounds nasty. Boston looks like they're right on the edge of either a monster snowstorm or changing to heavy rain. 

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35 minutes ago, mappy said:

the warning text says until 6am sunday. i haven't looked too closely today at the models, but i was under the impression the northern areas would hang on to the cold longer before everyone is pouring rain. i thought the warning made sense. 

Currently 37/32 here. The 1.2"-1.5" that fell overnight has long melted away, but we still have about 2/3 of the snowpack from last weekend on the ground here, which means ~2"-3" where it still exists. Interesting that forecast called for temps in low-mid 40s today, but we're just not getting there...probably has no impact on what happens tomorrow/Sunday (especially here in NoVA), but...interesting.

So, @mappy, just what DO you have on the ground at home in terms of snow? I've caught spotty updates in several topics over past 1-2 days, but still don't have a clear picture on what white stuff (if any) is actually on the ground in your area, on over to @psuhoffman-land after last weekend and last evening.

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31 minutes ago, vastateofmind said:

Currently 37/32 here. The 1.2"-1.5" that fell overnight has long melted away, but we still have about 2/3 of the snowpack from last weekend on the ground here, which means ~2"-3" where it still exists. Interesting that forecast called for temps in low-mid 40s today, but we're just not getting there...probably has no impact on what happens tomorrow/Sunday (especially here in NoVA), but...interesting.

So, @mappy, just what DO you have on the ground at home in terms of snow? I've caught spotty updates in several topics over past 1-2 days, but still don't have a clear picture on what white stuff (if any) is actually on the ground in your area, on over to @psuhoffman-land after last weekend and last evening.

i can't speak for PSU, but I picked up 2.8" last weekend. Before last night's snow, i was probably 80% snow cover still, but grass was showing in spots. Picked up another inch overnight, so just a fresh coating. I imagine a lot will be melted by the time I get home this evening. 

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56 minutes ago, schinz said:

Or maybe they have foretasted the weather for Northern Maryland long enough to know that the models are almost always too quick in scouring out low level cold air.  I rememeber many instances in Westminster that the temperature never went above freezing even when all the models had it doing so hours earlier.

18z NAM would have to be way wrong too. 

nam_namer_039_dom_precip_type.gif

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8 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

Cranky is not a real met. Not saying hes wrong because some NWS branches did mention it. 

Crank posted directly from WPC about the 12z model run. its one thing to get on him for some of this thoughts, but this isnt one of those times. 

 

3 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said:

I understand that but in my opinion if northern Baltimore is likely to get 1/4 of ice, so will Northern Harford. 

models suggest otherwise. northern harford will get warmer faster than places further north and west. Pretty sure I will trust LWX on this one. 

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1 hour ago, mattskiva said:

Not really buying that.  I get the idea that any CAD would scour out more quickly (or never exist at all) at 3200 feet, but we're not talking about CAD with the snow scenario, and even if sea level at that latitude is in the 40s, it seems unlikely that the huge different in elevation would result in so much less accumulation in Tucker than in Garrett.  In the vast majority of scenarios, Canaan sees more accumulation than Garrett (though there are certainly some exceptions).

This is the kind of setup where Garrett does better than Tucker and it’s mostly due to the fact that Garrett is more north. Go just across Garrett into the next county in PA and it’s the same story there...they’ll get 6-10” vs Garrett 3-6”...latitude helps with this setup. 

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