mappy Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 23 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said: This isn’t going to work out at all for the metro/I95 crew...track and eroding cold just doesn’t work. Now along the PA line where there’s still more snowpack and cold holds a little longer, I think 1-3 is possible in the east, meaning extreme northern Balt County, Harford and Cecil with 2-4 poss in west...northern Carroll, Frederick and Washington County thanks for the insightful information! i had no idea what to expect IMBY 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Icon even gets everyone with a little on the backend as well. Best case scenario right there. IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 15 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: 12km NAM is certainly more aggressive with erosion of cold air compared to the Nest, but the overall synoptic setup is similar, so I probably lean with the NAM Nest in the overall depiction. Basically an hour or two of snow for our western crew and 2-3 hours for the northern tier followed by ice. Small nose above freezing around 800mb should shift the ptype to sleet/ZR. H85 winds will be pretty brisk out of the south and southwest, so odds are some significant warming will occur in the latter frames of the Nest. However, the CAD wedge is pretty entrenched so temps will be slow to rise for areas north of I-70. A slightly colder onset would probably shift the ice potential to I-70, but the M/D line and 81 corridor will have the highest chance of impact for frozen. It's a shame this antecedent airmass isn't better leading in. This could've been a nice surprise. The ICON says it will be. But I know you said it's probably too cold of a model. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, MD Snow said: Icon even gets everyone with a little on the backend as well. Best case scenario right there. IMO Icon just gave us our lemonade. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, Fozz said: The ICON says it will be. But I know you said it's probably too cold of a model. You never know. It's been steady on the idea last few days. Would be nice to see it right on that look. It's certainly a best case scenario and basically my outline for how it gets better for the northern tier north of I-70 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Woodbridge02 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 17 minutes ago, Amped said: Icon just gave us our lemonade. Interesting enough my point and click on NWS has Sunday changing from rain to wintry mix. I guess they are putting some weight behind a quick flip at the end. We'll see how that plays out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Now wouldn't this be sumthin' 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lpaschall Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Lets see if the GFS follows... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, lpaschall said: Lets see if the GFS follows... It won't imo It's not great with handling these type of backend setups typically. A ) they rarely work out anyway B ) when they do, it's almost always now-cast scenario 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, LP08 said: Now wouldn't this be sumthin' Just a basic question. Is the ICON shown that is the least bit reliable? I have the same feeling about the FV3 and the NAM passed 24 hours. Joke models for entertainment only. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, lpaschall said: Lets see if the GFS follows... GFS holds steady, actually going more north then it has in previous runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: GFS holds steady, actually going more north then it has in previous runs. Not good for us but didn’t go north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, Mdecoy said: Just a basic question. Is the ICON shown that is the least bit reliable? I have the same feeling about the FV3 and the NAM passed 24 hours. Joke models for entertainment only. I wouldn't base a forecast off of it if that's what your asking, especially since its on its own with both the size of the initial thump and with the wraparound. GFS has been warmer west then all other guidance. UKMET is closest with the EURO in-between the two camps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 GFS is garbage when it dosent show snow. The European models(Icon,ukmet,ECMWF) llike this storm much better for us than our broken american models that wont give us snow 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 9 minutes ago, LP08 said: Now wouldn't this be sumthin' Ha! I'd laugh if that happens, as temperatures fall into the teens or low 20s at the same time! Talk about making good on lemonade right there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, MD Snow said: Not good for us but didn’t go north. Yea, what is he seeing as more north. Came in slightly weaker which is probably good for us. Not great for NY/VT snows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Not good for us but didn’t go north. You’re right, I called that a little early looking at 60. My bad. It pushed the R/S line north when people were looking for a thump though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, PivotPoint said: Yea, what is he seeing as more north. Came in slightly weaker which is probably good for us. Not great for NY/VT snows glad we got our 30 hour/10 inch snow last weekend. Tough to top that kind of duration and may prove to be the event of the winter for at least the southern half of the forum. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 6 minutes ago, Ji said: GFS is garbage when it dosent show snow. The European models(Icon,ukmet,ECMWF) llike this storm much better for us than our broken american models that wont give us snow FYP 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 7 minutes ago, BristowWx said: glad we got our 30 hour/10 inch snow last weekend. Tough to top that kind of duration and may prove to be the event of the winter for at least the southern half of the forum. The previous event is top 3 in my book for last 10 years. Just because it literally snowed Saturday, Sunday, Monday from the same storm. And Sunday afternoon for those who kept the faith were then rewarded when the radar lit back up and it just dumped for like 6 more hours. Awesome event 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 29 minutes ago, Woodbridge02 said: Wow, ICON hits us with a deform as the coastal departs. Not putting any faith in that solution but it would be amazing to score a win out of this system. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 15 minutes ago, LP08 said: I wouldn't base a forecast off of it if that's what your asking, especially since its on its own with both the size of the initial thump and with the wraparound. GFS has been warmer west then all other guidance. UKMET is closest with the EURO in-between the two camps. Does the UK catch us with anything from the departing low or is it all front-end? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: Does the UK catch us with anything from the departing low or is it all front-end? Maybe some light stuff but not anything like the ICON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, LP08 said: Maybe some light stuff but not anything like the ICON. Man, the ICON really is eye candy. Temps crash and we go over to sleet/freezing rain then 1-3+ inches of snow with the departing CCB. Really doubt it happens since that's a pretty rare event and no other model has that but it sure is pretty to look at. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 29 minutes ago, Mdecoy said: Is the ICON shown that is the least bit reliable? I have the same feeling about the FV3 and the NAM passed 24 hours. Joke models for entertainment only. The ICON is not a bad model. I think last year it seemed to struggle more with big storms, but I'd rather see it showing snow than no snow. The FV3 generally posts better verification scores than the GFS and has done better than the GFS for our last two storms. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 25 minutes ago, BristowWx said: glad we got our 30 hour/10 inch snow last weekend. Tough to top that kind of duration and may prove to be the event of the winter for at least the southern half of the forum. glad you did too! but regarding this event: LWX has an "enhanced" threat level for Saturday and Sunday, west of 95. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paxpatriot Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Where's Ji? The JMA looks super sweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 36 minutes ago, PivotPoint said: Yea, what is he seeing as more north. Came in slightly weaker which is probably good for us. Not great for NY/VT snows In fairness the GFS cut back on the snow in northern MD from about 6" to 3" so it did shift the WAA thump north but that was not really due to the storm going north but simply meso scale features and where and how heavy the WAA thump sets up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 The GFS has us changing over to snow at 13z-14z Sunday per the precip-type maps on stormvista. Precip departs between 18z-19z so it supports a period of back end snow, although rather light (<.1 QPF). Could be some nice snowtv though as the arctic front comes through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now