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40/70 Benchmark

Winter Begins Jan 20th AWT

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1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

Well, the surface low does need to track south of us, right?

There's basically no chance it doesn't.

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11 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Will be back down to four posters posting.

I'll be hanging in here.

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

These melts are based on the gfs right? Just want to make sure we are following. 

Yes--and all the exuberance of late was over the NAM.  Make sure we're following that, too. 

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Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

Latent heat release pumping up heights ahead of storm.  Always a risk.

And was discussed, You can see them rising out ahead of that s/w trying to move north @H5

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12 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Can we just stop posting those dumb TT snow maps that say "includes sleet" in accumulations.  Use some other site like Pivotal.

+1

Also, we (should) all know where to find those, so maybe we don't have to make the thread longer than it needs to be? We're well ahead of MidA in the "most posts" contest as it stands.

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5 minutes ago, dryslot said:

The real problem is the southern stream s/w is more amped which is allowing it to track a little further NW.

The biggest difference is at hour 42.  After that it plunges northeastward to just shy of New York City by hour 48.  Most storms would track east/northeast at hour 42 but this seems to want to go head first right into the arctic dome which I find very strange.

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Just now, Greg said:

The biggest difference is at hour 42.  After that it plunges noreastward to just shy on New York City by hour 48.  Most storms would track east/northeast at hour 42 but this seems to want to go head first right into the arctic dome which I find strange.

not the first time that's happened

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Just now, ariof said:

We're well ahead of MidA in the "most posts" contest as it stands.

 

By about 400,000, yeah...

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19 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

rain up to NH border lol

The GFS was showing something similar yesterday morning. The difference was the V3 had a snowier solution. Now both are similar. The trend this winter has been for storms to move to the west.  Time will tell on this one.

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And if it hasn't been said enough.  I would not trust the GFS with east coast storms originating from the southern stream if my career depended upon it,

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I still like the warmer mid level look with low track maybe similar to 12z NAM as I said earlier. If it goes over SE MA then throw an egg at me, but that’s my gut. If Boston gets to the 50s, Greg can have my degree. 

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3 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

how similar is this to the storm in November, I seem to remember the models doing this as well...I ended up with 8 inches in that storm

November was a bit different but it did have a good high out ahead of it. This high is actually in a better spot...it's hard to get a high in a better spot than this one. Maybe if it was slightly east of where it is, but that is nitpicking.

 

When you look ways to to parse guidance, you try and think on what could go wrong with a model solution. What do almost all of our overperformers on WAA events have in common? They have an arctic airmass out ahead of it. They have the high and confluence in a favorable spot. And they have good lift.

 

We have all of those things in this event. So in which direction is the model most likely to make a mistake? We'd say it is most likely to underestimate the cold in this setup. It doesn't mean it has to be wrong, but your errors are going to skew in that direction, so you forecast based on that.

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1 hour ago, JC-CT said:

Yeah man, I agree. I can imagine any of the other models vomiting all over themselves with the mid level thermals while getting the overall evolution right, and they all suck at the surface, but it's hard to see the Euro being off that much in the ml temps this close in.

GFS joined this party but torches surface. IDK all these promises of colder outcomes are getting pushed aside. Normally I would agree about low level cold winning out but that a hekuva push of warm air with strong winds upper levels.  I just don't know.  Game time situation it appears 

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2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm not concerned in the least. At least an 8" snowfall en route.

Depends where and defining how much. That’s all I mean. 

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Looks like the GFS gets the sfc warm front up to the Pike. That's where the thermal gradient exists right behind the streamline convergence. North of there there's a large zone that gets up to MHT that is in the low 30s. My guess is this is the model thinking there's ZR and it's trying to latent heat the area to freezing. Then you get another sharp temperature gradient where you go from ZR to IP. Since there's no sfc latent heating with IP you get back into the deep cold. The GFS overdoes thermals and is definitely underestimating CAD so you can almost surely push that IP line further south and the actual warm sector from the Pike to near the south coast. And the further south that IP and SN make it the colder the air you can advect into the ZR zone to offset latent heating.

tl;dr version...toss the GFS sfc params

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2 hours ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

It is possible, but I think the south trend remains

No it’s not. Please stop with this dramatic nonsense that you spit out for every storm. Everything is always the coldest, wettest and snowiest model that you think is going to be right. All your ranges have a “+” at the end of them. It’s always “I think the OES enhancement will overperform or some crap like that. Then in the end, you apologize to everyone for “going overboard” and that it won’t happen again yet when the next storm comes along you’re back to the same crap. Your maps don’t make much sense also. 10” in MVY? Are you kidding me? Every single storm you’re like this and it’s painful to read your posts.

I don’t get why people who troll warm and rain on here get banned/5 posted but people like him get away with this awful analysis, biased cold and wet with every single storm. I think I’ll just make you my first ever ignore on here because just seeing your avatar pop up makes me cringe cause I know what whatever it is you posted is going to be ridiculous and full of nonsense. Cut the crap please!

PS. Not trying to be mean, just trying to knock some sense of reality into your posts. Somehow I don’t think it’s going to change though

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17 minutes ago, Greg said:

The problem is it's a very fleeting Artic air mass. Not classic or favorable where it's strong and keeps the storm from turning due northeast instead of keeping it on a east/northeasterly track instead.

It's so fleeting, Boston sees a high of 10F the following day.

Are you doing the bird box challenge while looking at the models?

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1 minute ago, Greg said:

The biggest difference is at hour 42.  After that it plunges northeastward to just shy of New York City by hour 48.  Most storms would track east/northeast at hour 42 but this seems to want to go head first right into the arctic dome which I find strange.

Well, You need to look at the Northern stream s/w too at that hour, Its also starting to influence that southern s/w too so that's going to affect this trying to go east as well.

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Lol what?

He is getting old and senile and forgetting people's names, he meant Brian

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7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Its a completely classic airmass. 

If it was then it would the Low would not head due northeast like that, no way, no how.  Somethings missing. Maybe the SW getting involved too much?

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Just now, Greg said:

If it was then it would the Low would not head due northeast like that, no way, no how.  Somethings missing.

The low isn't going to head due northeast like the GFS shows...it's going to get shoved ENE as it approaches SNE....the model is dogshit when it comes to the surface.

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

The low isn't going to head due northeast like the GFS shows...it's going to get shoved ENE as it approaches SNE....the model is dogshit when it comes to the surface.

Its running into confluence once it gets up here so it has to go ENE.

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

The low isn't going to head due northeast like the GFS shows...it's going to get shoved ENE as it approaches SNE....the model is dogshit when it comes to the surface.

I agree with you.  No flack from me, just indicating what the GFS 12Z models shows.  Not a prediction from me at all yet.

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