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40/70 Benchmark

Winter Begins Jan 20th AWT

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5 minutes ago, dryslot said:

That map over the past several runs may have changed 1" over this way and i don't see that changing from here until go time.

Yeah it's been ticking up and down (this run ticked a bit north again) but still in the noise category.  

The one thing the EPS mean did was smooth the QPF a bit more.  It increased it up north and decreased it a bit down south, creating a more uniform look, without really altering the track.  

And if you look at the individual maps, the 50 ensemble members are like all pretty much identical.  Very little spread.  I think we are narrowing into the final outcome but there's still a solid 48 hours to go. 

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7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Gotta have high confidence in half an inch of ice and I don't think you can say that anywhere...esp at this time lead. 

Are we still safe from a big freezing rain even here in Worcester area? Sleet is heavy and slippery, but it wont bring down limbs.

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4 minutes ago, J Paul Gordon said:

Are we still safe from a big freezing rain even here in Worcester area? Sleet is heavy and slippery, but it wont bring down limbs.

I don't see a big ZR event in ORH. It's possible there could be a little bit of ZR. Esp at the warmest point aloft...but it should be a primarily sleet/snow event. 

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5 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Going with 3-6" most of CT with 1-3 immediate coast and 6-10 NW of BDL. 

Guess you won’t have to bother with bringing the snow monster down to the coast. 

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Seems reasonable, it doesnt look like there will be a sharp snowfall gradient over CT.

Something like Nov 15 where its a solid front end thump with the mix line rapidly pushing through the state. 

Biggest problem will be the ice vs. sleet locals

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57 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Almost time for a zoinked NGW run, I can sense one coming.

Won’t be this run. It’s looking meh like 6z.

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2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Won’t be this run. It’s looking meh like 6z.

 

2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

NAM read Jeff’s post and said no I won’t!

Nope, Not this one.

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Just now, dendrite said:

It’s trying to phase in the northern stream.

Yeah, Late, But it a partial so far

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Watches are up for all of CT now including the shore. Interesting, i thought they would leave the southern parts of the 4 southern zones out of it, but guess not.

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Just now, codfishsnowman said:

I am sure they will say due to impact

It def is because 3-6" is not warning criteria, but since a) its just a watch and b) combined with ice, they probably felt it was warranted

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