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Winter Begins Jan 20th AWT


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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Here's probably a more accurate clown map (though prob a little too light near coast). Yeah, 18" is in trouble there I think on most guidance....but I'd expect you'll crack double digits pretty easily

 

 

Jan19_00zNAMclownmap.gif

Those totals ramp up pretty quickly over a few miles in SNE.  I'll take my 14" and run.

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8 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Everything has trended warmer in the boundary layer. Even the RPM is bringing the surface 0c isotherm to Hartford for a while in the morning Sunday. Not sure if that's overdone but it is notable that everything has come north some this evening. 

So the freezing rain can stay north of me? That would be great. Kevin can have it lol

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3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I see no way out from about RI / Mass border on SSW line to DXR. I think Ginx, me, anybody up into Union to Putnam down to Ryan to Iceberg to Spanks to Hoth are in deep doo doo. Euro ain’t gonna be wrong this close in. It’s prep time 

Remember the pdfamily temp map?  I'm thinking of that from Rocktober any how few pws reports were showing up.  Maybe this could be similar, though not as wide geographically.

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Define particularly

Could there be a narrow zone of 1/2" of ice accretion? Sure. But I'm not that confident in it.

Southern areas may battle a more easterly component to the wind for a bit and warm about 0c at the surface. Central/Northern areas lose to much QPF to sleet and snow. 

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Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

Pretty funny as a spectator watching Kevin fight tooth and nail against anything but sleet - please oh god not that. 

Ice? Yes. Snow? Yes. Sleet? F u the world sucks. 

What happens? Next model comes out even more terrifyingly sleety

I’ll be fine with 6-8 then 2-3 of sleet. Based on everything north and the way warm tongues are always north of progs.. I think that’s noteworthy 

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4 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

What do you make of the warmer tick at 2m on the hires stuff, Will? Sort of surprised to see as much rain as I do now even up to HFD on NAM/RPM. 

Yeah not sure....I don't see any real good reason for it. This thing should be tapping arctic dews...esp draining right down the CT valley there. My only guess is that with the slightly warmer mid-levels, the models may be overplaying the latent heat angle more....trying to warm the BL way too much with the refreezing of sleet pellets and then eventually near sfc with ZR.

But with fresh dew source up north, I don't see a good reason to believe them.

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah not sure....I don't see any real good reason for it. This thing should be tapping arctic dews...esp draining right down the CT valley there. My only guess is that with the slightly warmer mid-levels, the models may be overplaying the latent heat angle more....trying to warm the BL way too much with the refreezing of sleet pellets and then eventually near sfc with ZR.

But with fresh dew source up north, I don't see a good reason to believe them.

RPM has some ugly ZR totals in S ORH Co and also around Waterbury CT. Pretty much I-84 corridor whole way. 

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9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Here's probably a more accurate clown map (though prob a little too light near coast). Yeah, 18" is in trouble there I think on most guidance....but I'd expect you'll crack double digits pretty easily

 

 

Jan19_00zNAMclownmap.gif

For a broadstrokes forecast for the VT ski areas, this is what I had this morning.  Looks awfully similar to that map.

50556209_3012411608784305_44516574868935

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Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Amazing how consistent that has been for a week now. The only movement in this storm has been in SNE , CNNE have not moved.

Yeah...I mean I'll take the under on that as I think they overdo it with ratios with inverted temp profiles. Plus there's the riming factor Chris and I talked about earlier which will increase the density of the crystals.

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