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Winter Begins Jan 20th AWT

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8 minutes ago, MarkO said:

Conditions would have to be perfect to get sleet only. I'm leaning towards the warmer GFS solution just solely based on how this winter has gone. I think you go S-R-Z-IP-S and the sleet is marginal.

Drunk ?

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Ukie looks much closer to euro now. Maybe it finally got off the booze for a day. 

Looks like it has pellet line close to MA/NH border 

 

IMG_2310.GIF

If u listen closely, someone in Harwich just jumped in Atlantic 

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Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

If u listen closely, someone in Harwich just jumped in Atlantic 

Lol. He never had much of a shot outside a few inches on the front end. 

 

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I hate trying to draw comparisons to other storms generally, but I could definitely see this playing out like a Feb event we had like 3-5 years ago.

We got thumped with like 2-5” of snow went to sleet for an hour or two and turned to a very cold (but not freezing) rain. That is a totally believable scenario down here, at least for me.

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Goalposts narrowing.  Warning event for most of the forum excluding the king weenie unfortunately.  I’m rooting for a Hail Mary jacking Diane for her bday present.

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On the other hand, we’re still at d3 so there’s time for adjustments that would have a significant effect on large parts of the populace.

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It's a screenshot of a video so the quality is trashy, but the hype from Weather Channel is insane. Where are they finding 3+ feet of snow?? Please don't tell me they're using Kuchera ratio...

weatherchannel.png

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14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Ukie looks much closer to euro now. Maybe it finally got off the booze for a day. 

Looks like it has pellet line close to MA/NH border 

 

IMG_2310.GIF

The uncle is in detox.

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Just now, MarkO said:

snow to freezing rain to rain, my bad

No way. There will be a sleet zone in there.

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6 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Goalposts narrowing.  Warning event for most of the forum excluding the king weenie unfortunately.  I’m rooting for a Hail Mary jacking Diane for her bday present.

Little ditty about jacking Dianne.

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24 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

I'm wary of an earlier phase... mainly because that was associated with the GFS driving the surface low over Mass

As it looks now, I'd think our best case scenario (for most of SNE/CNE, at least) is a delayed interaction, helping the system stay east, we get the SWFE goods, followed by infusion of northern stream energy and CCB redevelopment late Sunday

The delayed reaction is how it will go done.

Its not phasing early. That idea, which I always dispelled when by the boards a couple of days ago.

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It's a screenshot of a video so the quality is trashy, but the hype from Weather Channel is insane. Where are they finding 3+ feet of snow?? Please don't tell me they're using Kuchera ratio...
weatherchannel.png.c330791e479c219759d5b47d0656d30c.png


I think they are. The twc app for my area has 1 foot or more Saturday night and 1 foot or more for Sunday. Then another 1-3 on Sunday night


.

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All these mentions that the pinging/freezing rain aspects seem to stop at the MA/NH border leave me feeling like I'm living on the edge of a razor.  I live literally 2 miles north of the MA border, just north of Haverhill.  I flip between predictions BOX gives and GYX as I'm at the edge of both their ownership areas.

Feeling good on something between 8-12" unless someone comes in showing lots more heading my way.  I'm in love with the Euro but some of the NAM solutions leave me so close the the accumulation boundaries that I could bust down from great totals to "meh but I get to use the snowblower" totals with additional NW creep>

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Just now, MarkO said:

My point is it's not going to sleet for 12 hours.

idk about 12, but someone could get a prolonged period of pellets. A meh warm layer aloft and a deep, frigid cold layer underneath.

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5 minutes ago, MarkO said:

snow to freezing rain to rain, my bad

I don't think there is really any way that Kevin's 'hood rains (as in plain rain of the non-freezing variety). Not unless we see the big amped up solutions come back that we're trying to plow a low through ALB. 

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29 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

So you are more bullish on snow amounts pike N / Rte 2 area

Mm.. heh heh ... I'm more bullish on less IP/ZR contamination in said area

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

I don't think there is really any way that Kevin's 'hood rains. Not unless we see the big amped up solutions come back that we're trying to plow a low through ALB. 

No one in CT sees rain except mayyyyybe GON. Dudes wasted 

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13 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Goalposts narrowing.  Warning event for most of the forum excluding the king weenie unfortunately.  I’m rooting for a Hail Mary jacking Diane for her bday present.

I’ll leave that one alone 

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Just now, Chrisrotary12 said:

The Weather Channel hitting the bottle?

 

Untitled.png

Lol. That is ridiculous. 

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1 minute ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

The Weather Channel hitting the bottle?

 

Untitled.png

Hope cantore goes to portsmouth.

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A little concerned about the little amped from 6z on the 12z CMC but other wise not to concerned yet. We'll see what the Euro says at 12z.  Hoppefully it either stays steadfast  or goes a tic southeast for the CNE/SNE snowgeese.

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Just now, sbos_wx said:

Similar tracks to euro ensembles

Yeah, It put down the bong it had been huffing on.

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