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Winter Begins Jan 20th AWT


40/70 Benchmark
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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

If the cold layer is pretty deep (800-1000m or more) and at least -8C or so...then you can start refreezing them pretty easily...esp since you start to get poorly formed ice crystals in the cold layer for the drops to freeze onto when you are colder than -8C. But that will be much tougher if the drops are warm...so the warmer/deeper the elevated warm layer, the better for preventing that.

 

Though admittedly, those conditions become hard to achieve the further you swing into one extreme,....usually a 4-5C warm layer will have a shallower layer of colder underneath it that has a hard time reaching -8C or being deeper than 800m.

Yeah you need some really funky soundings for that kid of stuff. And for sure if you re-introduce ice in the cloud near the ground then all bets are off. 

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Def a bit west and stronger....GFS is prob gonna try and drive the low over SNE, which is wrong, but that's how that model works. It already has above freezing sfc out to NW MA at 96 hours.

Just like it tried driving it into upstate NY yesterday, only to back down over the next few cycles... Ebb and flow with this model with regards to the Low movement

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2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Brutal day Monday, let’s hope no one loses power. Before you comment Kev, think of the Elderly/ Single Moms with kids stuck in a home with no power. With these wind chills, yes it effects homes blowing the heat out. Let’s all hope for an all snow event as this with no hype is a particularly dangerous situation.

A3EC9F12-9264-4A81-808D-FDEE77AB0C8D.png

 

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

ZR!

Pump the brakes ice-fetish boy.

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