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Winter Begins Jan 20th AWT


40/70 Benchmark
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4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Well that's what I'm saying...it's really a 9-12hr window of heavy here with a few hours on each side. I think the real accumulating snow ends up under the 24hr mark and closer to 18hr. I'm hoping it's done early enough so I can go out and clear some before the Pats game.

10-15" sounds reasonable to me for Central NH.  Few lollies to 18" perhaps.  Nothing we can't handle.  The hype around here is epic.  This event will have a much lower impact than my 13" birch destroyer earlier this year.

If this was a bombing 960 something low moving up, stalling and pivoting in the GOM then I could see these 18-28" amounts.  Even though this will have lots of moisture it moves along.  Maybe I'm missing something as most of you delve into data much deeper than I do.

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Just now, dryslot said:

Yeah, I'm thinking of leaving it until monday morning here, I'm suppose to go to a party but doesn't look like that's going to happen, I'm not missing the game, And i have no one coming over, So i may just leave it alone.

I'm planning on hibernating at my place with lot of junk food for these championship games. I'm a Rams fan so you can imagine my excitement for this Sunday... I just hope this storm doesn't mess with the power (I don't think it will). 

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GYX's 90%/most likely/10% tool is different than I've ever noted before.  It covers sites ASH-RKD-Farmington, and all are within 3" of each other (that's rare but not unknown) and all have 5" difference between 90% and most likely, and no difference from there to the 10% chance.  MHT is highest with 12/17/17, Farmington (and a couple other sites) lowest at 9/14/14.  That totally flat top end looks weird.  We'll see.  Hoping for 15:1 stuff here, but also could mimic VD-07's 8.6-to-1 at similarly frigid temps.

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2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I kind of feel as though the EURO maybe trying to pull of a late-bloom blizzard.

Yeah... I can see what you might think that... heh.

can't say no frankly.  The "model" may try - we're not saying reality will do so... 

Having said that, I haven't posted those words or to the affect because just bringing up the subsuming of the Euro's last three runs should sufficiently imply -

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1 minute ago, wxeyeNH said:

10-15" sounds reasonable to me for Central NH.  Few lollies to 18" perhaps.  Nothing we can't handle.  The hype around here is epic.  This event will have a much lower impact than my 13" birch destroyer earlier this year.

If this was a bombing 960 something low moving up, stalling and pivoting in the GOM then I could see these 18-28" amounts.  Even though this will have lots of moisture it moves along.  Maybe I'm missing something as most of you delve into data much deeper than I do.

I actually agree with you. I don't think this storm has the longevity with the heavy precip for us to get over 18" in central NH. 

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5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah... I can see what you might think that... heh.

can't say no frankly.  The "model" may try - we're not saying reality will do so... 

Having said that, I haven't posted those words or to the affect because just bringing up the subsuming of the Euro's last three runs should sufficiently imply -

I "only" went 8-14" north of the pike in my first call blog post, but explicitly hedged at much greater potential when detailing this trend.

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8 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Yeah, I'm thinking of leaving it until monday morning here, I'm suppose to go to a party but doesn't look like that's going to happen, I'm not missing the game, And i have no one coming over, So i may just leave it alone.

Same here, especially since Monday is a holiday - snoblo in daylight after the storm is over.  (Could backfire if this one is a big overperformer that dumps more than the machine can eat in one pass, but that would be a win, too.)

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7 minutes ago, WxBlue said:

I'm planning on hibernating at my place with lot of junk food for these championship games. I'm a Rams fan so you can imagine my excitement for this Sunday... I just hope this storm doesn't mess with the power (I don't think it will). 

That game should be a shootout Saints-Rams, Pats-KC, The weather may have an affect and keep scoring down some.

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1 minute ago, tamarack said:

Same here, especially since Monday is a holiday - snoblo in daylight after the storm is over.  (Could backfire if this one is a big overperformer that dumps more than the machine can eat in one pass, but that would be a win, too.)

MY JD loves the snow..........lol

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Just now, dryslot said:

That game should be a shootout Saints-Rams, Pats-KC, The weather may have an affect and keep scoring down some.

Starting 2/1-crown is back.  Dry January.  Good to watch in a warm house and hopefully we don’t trend to zr around here so I can keep power...

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Just now, Go Kart Mozart said:

Would it need to redevelop the mid-level lows to the south of you in order to do that?

Thats basically what it is trying to do on some of these runs. Like an elongated anafrontal development of the midlevels. I'm still somewhat skeptical of it actually panning out like that but it is not out of the envelope of solutions. 

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8 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Would it need to redevelop the mid-level lows to the south of you in order to do that?

Yea, I haven't looked closely enough to see how close it is RE mid level centers, but I will obviously before final call. The H5 low def. trended south of us yesterday.

Obviously odds are against it, which is why I didn't go 1-2' in the first call.

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I haven't looked closely enough to see how close it is RE mid level centers, I will obviously before final call. But the H5 low def. trended south of us yesterday.

Obviously odds are against it, which is why I didn't go 1-2" in the first call.

Well, ICON shows the back-end blizzard in aces and spades, lol!

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9 minutes ago, dryslot said:

That game should be a shootout Saints-Rams, Pats-KC, The weather may have an affect and keep scoring down some.

Currently, KC forecast is 24 on Sunday, 18 Sunday night, no mention of strong winds in their AFD, so much like last Sunday.  Wx shouldn't be an issue there for either team.

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2 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Currently, KC forecast is 24 on Sunday, 18 Sunday night, no mention of strong winds in their AFD, so much like last Sunday.  Wx shouldn't be an issue there for either team.

Several days ago it had temps in the single numbers falling to below zero at end of game.  Sure warmed up significantly out there

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That ICON evolution is amazing looking ...  It has the IB snow burst ... terminating as steady ZR/IP (implicit...) south of the pike, with on-gong lighter snow N of that rough longitude... Then, a new low deepens rather rapidly I of NJ and we see CCB blossom from a NYC/LI to SE NH arc 

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