CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 NAM actually looks reasonable, never thought I would say that. Makes sense to me overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Looking at hours 66 and 72 intervals... I'm surprised it's not showing/picking up on the Euro's idea of more N/stream subsume ... The Euro's now on three runs and counting with impressive phase - as Will pointed out ...it's a little too late for our region to really cash-in on that evolution, but, keeping to point ... the NAM would start to acquiesce to that at some point along the way here and that's not happening yet per this 12z run. I mentioned this last night ... if the Euro run is right, all these other guidances are going to have to modulate ...not just their system location in space and time, but the profiling of their depictions too... There's an interesting model fight going on here folks - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Inches and inches...of sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Nam devastates CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: NAM actually looks reasonable, never thought I would say that. Makes sense to me overall. Doesn't look that different from euro. Less qpf though which I actually prob agree with. Usually it's the NAM that has more QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said: James getting excited? He should be, That's over 3" of rain there after a slushy 1-2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Nam devastates CT Not sure there's enough QPF that falls as ZR to be "devastating" on the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 58 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Sounds like you never saw any maps of December 2008. No I didn't know how cool weather was back then, plus I lived in Natick where it never ices. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Doesn't look that different from euro. Less qpf though which I actually prob agree with. Usually it's the NAM that has more QPF. Right! Given the reasonable QPF and look...can't say I see any weird issues overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17, 2019 Author Share Posted January 17, 2019 The BOX products don't make a ton of sense to me. I'm not sure how you forecast up to .5" of ice accretion up to KLWM, yet also forecast up to 18" of snow. The answer is that you wouldn't. That will be just about all sleet and snow. I'd displace that ice a swath a good 50 mi to the south. I also think that the map is a bit high on snowfall, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 NAM QPF increased in NNE on this run vs 6Z: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 That's nearing magenta snow fall rates along the Mohawk trail and down Rt 2 through N. Mass in this NAM's 66 hour panel... Probably 6" in that 3 hours alone... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, WxBlue said: Seems like a quick-ish storm on the NAM. Looked about 27hrs or so here, I don't know if i would call that quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Still some left up here to go, Another .10-.20" as you go east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 31 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Besides definitely not wanting it , why do you beleive you escape Frzr on this one, it’s more of a prolonged over-running event . I could see a cf pinned barely to your east and the gulf airmass butting up against your pressing polar high leaving Taunton looking like ice castles , perhaps west side better shot Over on the NWS side of Taunton/Norton, sure they can pull off prolonged ice, but where I live, not gonna happen. There is just enough marine influence that makes it into this area compared to across town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, klw said: NAM QPF increased in NNE on this run vs 6Z: It gave us an early start with a little finger of fronto and then it just shifted north with the better upglide. Powderfreak probably jacks on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Doesn't look that different from euro. Less qpf though which I actually prob agree with. Usually it's the NAM that has more QPF. It was like that at 6z , really trimsQPF for N of pike crowd 1.25 two straight runs and keep pike south around 2” plus this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, dryslot said: Looked about 27hrs or so here, I don't know if i would call that quick. Yeah, I deleted that comment after looking at the NAM again. I was thinking each frame as one hour interval... it's still early in the morning for me haha 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 10 minutes ago, weathafella said: Verbatim pelting 18z Sunday with a 2m of 19 at BOS Looks like VD 07 to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Looks like VD 07 to me Similar ptype distribution...maybe more snow given the antecedent and colder during the sleet this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 So this NAM run was positioning transition zones 20 miles N of the previous fixes for that particular parameter handling ... didn't go back further,... but I don't agree with doing that in this situation. This is likely going to go off a cliff with my stubbornness but I'm inclined to steadfast my insights and use this as a learning curve if need be - ...in fact, it would be nice to buck the standard model of not being able to drill a feather through an iron wall like the NAM/GFS....etc... That is, outside of a tornado. Seriously...I've seen photos of pillow down feathers sticking out of brick walls ... anyway, should the less likely scenario pan out, nice to note the rare circumstance for future reference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: Looked about 27hrs or so here, I don't know if i would call that quick. I'd call it 18hrs here. -SN Saturday evening, the heavies from midnight to sunrise, and then light/mod cold fluff into early afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 hour ago, Bostonseminole said: no really it's the NAM Mmmk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, dendrite said: I'd call it 18hrs here. -SN Saturday evening, the heavies from midnight to sunrise, and then light/mod cold fluff into early afternoon. I went overall, But yeah, Heaviest rates are in an 18hr window with -SN on both sides from start to finish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, dryslot said: I went overall, But yeah, Heaviest rates are in an 18hr window with -SN on both sides from start to finish. Well that's what I'm saying...it's really a 9-12hr window of heavy here with a few hours on each side. I think the real accumulating snow ends up under the 24hr mark and closer to 18hr. I'm hoping it's done early enough so I can go out and clear some before the Pats game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 13 minutes ago, dryslot said: Still some left up here to go, Another .10-.20" as you go east. Wasn't the old NAM rule, cut qpf by 1/3? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: Wasn't the old NAM rule, cut qpf by 1/3? If it's outlandish, sure. But these numbers seem reasonable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, dendrite said: Well that's what I'm saying...it's really a 9-12hr window of heavy here with a few hours on each side. I think the real accumulating snow ends up under the 24hr mark and closer to 18hr. I'm hoping it's done early enough so I can go out and clear some before the Pats game. Yeah, I'm thinking of leaving it until monday morning here, I'm suppose to go to a party but doesn't look like that's going to happen, I'm not missing the game, And i have no one coming over, So i may just leave it alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17, 2019 Author Share Posted January 17, 2019 25 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Looking at hours 66 and 72 intervals... I'm surprised it's not showing/picking up on the Euro's idea of more N/stream subsume ... The Euro's now on three runs and counting with impressive phase - as Will pointed out ...it's a little too late for our region to really cash-in on that evolution, but, keeping to point ... the NAM would start to acquiesce to that at some point along the way here and that's not happening yet per this 12z run. I mentioned this last night ... if the Euro run is right, all these other guidances are going to have to modulate ...not just their system location in space and time, but the profiling of their depictions too... There's an interesting model fight going on here folks - I kind of feel as though the EURO maybe trying to pull of a late-bloom blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 5 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: Wasn't the old NAM rule, cut qpf by 1/3? If was printing out insane totals, I think these are actually lower then other guidance right now, But with the Nam, That probably changes going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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