MJO812 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Congrats on the icon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Suppression won’t happen. Let this go off nj to benefit everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Those ICON snow maps are pornographic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, Snow88 said: Let this go off nj to benefit everyone We don't want to screw NNE....this is a forum wide event. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, weathafella said: Those ICON snow maps are pornographic. Mostly sleet and ice near the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: We don't want to screw NNE....this is a forum wide event. Of course. We all need to cash in . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Interesting on the ICON how the mix still gets in even with a further southerly track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 minute ago, Greg said: Interesting on the ICON how the mix still gets in even with a further south track. I’m thinking you stay 90%+ snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 4 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Let this go off nj to benefit everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 ?? The German rains on NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 And everyone else in SNE, what are we looking at.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Algorithm ftl maybe.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: And everyone else in SNE, what are we looking at.... It’s a mix, look at surface temps. ICON on TT doesn’t show sleet/ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Not sure if it will be the dominating ptype...I'm expecting a lot of SNE to get a good thump of snow on the front end. But there's definitely not a huge gap between that and a lot more ZR. I still in my gut think more IP than ZR if we flip over....the airmass is frigid. Gonna need to really torch aloft to get ZR. +3C warm layer isn't gonna get the job done in this setup i don't think. Once you start getting >+3c in that warm layer you nuke the ice nuclei pretty quickly - unless the warm layer is super shallow. Even if you're 10F in the boundary layer you're going to get ZR with an all liquid drop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: And everyone else in SNE, what are we looking at.... H5 looks ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 29 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Suppression won’t happen. I was joking. The meltdowns here would be pretty epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 17 minutes ago, dryslot said: Good, So now we can go from being 87 hrs out to 84.................... yeah heh...we laugh but... I was just noticing the NAM did speed up the entire system positioning in the flow by several longitude degrees between just the 06z and this 12z runs ... Again, I think we need to get this thing off the Pac and well physically sounded.. If the southern stream is powerful enough to overcome the compression signal ...which concomitantly trying to flatten this into the W-E within the fluid medium/propagation ... then the concerns go back the other direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 minute ago, CT Rain said: I was joking. The meltdowns here would be pretty epic. Oh I know...but I’m the weenie minds of some...you know what they think. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Seeing as others are mentioning the ICON .... this 12z run demonstrates a noticeable less N/stream interaction around a 100 hours out compared to priors ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 10 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said: It’s a mix, look at surface temps. ICON on TT doesn’t show sleet/ice. At work icon has limited maps and the fact I was looking to begin with is a problem. But yeA thanks, temps are frigid, that’s alot of ip/zr. Good luck. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: At work icon has limited maps and the fact I was looking to begin with is a problem. But yeA thanks, temps are frigid, that’s alot of ip/zr. Good luck. You don’t have a phone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Jeez the gfs May be a bit flatter at first glance from 6z At hr 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: At work icon has limited maps and the fact I was looking to begin with is a problem. But yeA thanks, temps are frigid, that’s alot of ip/zr. Good luck. Ya not ideal lol I don’t mind sleet but if it’s going towards ZR than I would rather just torch’s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 10 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Once you start getting >+3c in that warm layer you nuke the ice nuclei pretty quickly - unless the warm layer is super shallow. Even if you're 10F in the boundary layer you're going to get ZR with an all liquid drop. If the cold layer is pretty deep (800-1000m or more) and at least -8C or so...then you can start refreezing them pretty easily...esp since you start to get poorly formed ice crystals in the cold layer for the drops to freeze onto when you are colder than -8C. But that will be much tougher if the drops are warm...so the warmer/deeper the elevated warm layer, the better for preventing that. Though admittedly, those conditions become hard to achieve the further you swing into one extreme,....usually a 4-5C warm layer will have a shallower layer of colder underneath it that has a hard time reaching -8C or being deeper than 800m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: You don’t have a phone? Iol whatchuthink im doing? The fact I was looking at the ICON is a problem. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 ICON gave me 12 inches of snow on 1.75 inches of QPF, all as snow, with a temp which only briefly tops the single digits and maxes out at 12f. That seems an odd combo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WthrJunkyME Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 37 minutes ago, Tiktock said: UGH I love and need snow but also want my diesal tractor with its snowblower to start, as well. Super low temps plus diesel=frustration. Should have installed that block heater but how often are we clearing plowable snow at single digit or below temps? Never! Throw a shop light under the engine cover. Incandescent of course! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Jeez the gfs May be a bit flatter at first glance from 6z At hr 72. Appears to me to be a little more amped down south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 22 minutes ago, weathafella said: I’m thinking you stay 90%+ snow. Yes, but what about ORH? Cuz we all know its all about MBY. Seriously, does this look more like mostly snow in the interior, now? Just hoping it isn't freezing rain. 2008 was more than enough for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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