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Winter Begins Jan 20th AWT

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Just now, CT Rain said:

Tossing the low level thermals with the GFS but that would be a pretty nasty ice event down here. 

That would be ridiculous I think down in that area. If we are able to torch the midlevels as much as the GFS says, then someone in SNE would get a monster ice storm. I'm still guessing it doesn't end up that warm aloft, but we gotta consider it for sure.

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Just now, snowgeek said:


Like the good old days.....when both Boston and Albany could cash in with a storm.


.

1994

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2 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

 congrats on 45K

Thanks

Good luck up there... hope you guys are able to get a nice snowstorm out of this 

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10 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

damn what a QPF bomb

NAEFS was a slight increase in the strength of the IVT plume at 12z today, maybe a once every other year type event.

EPS was definitely stronger, with the return interval more like 5 to 10 years.

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1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

NAEFS was a slight increase in the strength of the IVT plume at 12z today, maybe a once every other year type event.

EPS was definitely stronger, with the return interval more like 5 to 10 years.

The moisture plume coming from basically the Bay of Campeche gives me more confidence of higher QPF than usual. Not sure I am ready to buy 2-3" amounts north of the sfc front where convection will be less, but 1.5-2 might happen.

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2 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Maybe I should head to Pit2.....

Yep, I’d be giddy with just half of the 31” that map is giving me! Gimme a break, 31”.  Pffft...

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4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

NAEFS was a slight increase in the strength of the IVT plume at 12z today, maybe a once every other year type event.

EPS was definitely stronger, with the return interval more like 5 to 10 years.

I'm guessing you already have some of this loaded in the grids?

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1 minute ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Is the UKMET out anywhere yet and if so, how is it? I don't see it updating on the UQAM site.

When does it "normally" begin rolling out?

MSLP maps come out around 11:45

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2 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Is the UKMET out anywhere yet and if so, how is it? I don't see it updating on the UQAM site.

When does it "normally" begin rolling out?

This is the best image that comes out before the normal maps at ~11:45

 

50565989_2217198101644936_5721638213483757568_n.jpg

  • Confused 1

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Just now, Thunderblizzard said:

This is the best image that comes out before the normal maps at ~11:45

 

50565989_2217198101644936_5721638213483757568_n.jpg

That would support a monster snow threat for Cape and Islands

  • Haha 3

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2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Drunk? I don't make snow maps 

Did canadian show an all snow event for Boston. And do you and everyone else want to see my snow map

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Just now, NYCweatherNOW said:

Did canadian show an all snow event for Boston. And do you and everyone else want to see my snow map

Pretty much and if not only a brief taint.

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Harvey Leonard going with an off shore storm track. "Colder solution storm"  Doesn't believe the Arctic air can be moved.  Heavy snow and sleet at times.  Amount of sleet involved is based on final storm track. 11:00 PM NEWS CHANNEL 5

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

The moisture plume coming from basically the Bay of Campeche gives me more confidence of higher QPF than usual. Not sure I am ready to buy 2-3" amounts north of the sfc front where convection will be less, but 1.5-2 might happen.

If you look at a Wilks 2006 reliability diagram for QPF you'll see that all models tend to have a wet bias for QPF. They too often are too wet. 

I'm trying to find a specific North American diagram with recent stats, but no luck. For Europe the EPS is something like 80% of the forecasts for heavy QPF, it actually occurs about 50% of the time. 

I suspect North America would be no different in that regard.

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