CT Rain Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: GEFS are not as amped as the OP but still more so than the EPS. My guess is the GFS caves at 00z. This sounds silly - but the fact the NAM is relatively flat makes me feel better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: GEFS are not as amped as the OP but still more so than the EPS. My guess is the GFS caves at 00z. If this was a coastal storm I’d be 95% confident gfs would Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: GEFS are not as amped as the OP but still more so than the EPS. My guess is the GFS caves at 00z. I doubt it caves anytime soon causing massive busted forecasts in highly populated areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 I kind of agree with Ryan. If anything is zonk happy it’s the NAM and it not showing that is helpful. I’ve got dinner plans so will have to see 18z euro later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 man there are some horrible posts going around social media. Saw someone say this could rival the Blizzard’s of 73 and 13 here in CT...lol. I’m liking a swath from ME back through central/southern NH, central/southern VT back through W MA...maybe NW Hills and down through NY for the highest snows. Maybe a 10-14” range. Thats a lot about this that continues to be rather puzzling. I think we’re looking at a relatively short-ish window for the majority of the precipitation (maybe 8 hours?) which will hurt the snow maps showing like 20+”. Even in a situation where this isn’t as amped as what the GFS shows there is going to be a ton of WAA and warmer air drawn into the circulation so even if it tracks say over CT I think we still bring in shallow llvl warmth. We had a situation like this last winter I think. Tried looking at a few euro products and something seemed really off with the snow map and those insane totals...particularly here in CT. The sfc/850 low track didn’t seem favorable for that result, however on Ryan Maue’s site there isn’t much in the way of 700mb products. I’m sure there will be a swath of some pretty decent freezing rain...but I also wonder if the heaviest precip is done before the thermals change to favor freezing rain. I think here in CT we see 4-7” of snow (all within a brief period) and then get some transition over to icing and then even sleet/rain. Not sure where the boundary sets up. Seeihg how quickly CAA gets involved and dry slot quickly racing NE has me wondering about longer duration precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 The FV3 is as bad as the GFS, not surprisingly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Good to hear from wiz what a SICK thermal gradient w this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Actually change that 4-7” to like 6-10”. 4” is too low for the low side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Harvey is cold and snowy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Our storm is raising blizzard warnings in the Sierras ... and wind warnings to a lot of lower elevations to the west. Almost El Nino looking ...almost... But, often times bigger events start leaving calling cards in the west ... the old, "this system has a history of ..." Just a reflection of being very dynamic /powerful mechanically... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 18 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: man there are some horrible posts going around social media. Saw someone say this could rival the Blizzard’s of 73 and 13 here in CT...lol. I’m liking a swath from ME back through central/southern NH, central/southern VT back through W MA...maybe NW Hills and down through NY for the highest snows. Maybe a 10-14” range. Thats a lot about this that continues to be rather puzzling. I think we’re looking at a relatively short-ish window for the majority of the precipitation (maybe 8 hours?) which will hurt the snow maps showing like 20+”. Even in a situation where this isn’t as amped as what the GFS shows there is going to be a ton of WAA and warmer air drawn into the circulation so even if it tracks say over CT I think we still bring in shallow llvl warmth. We had a situation like this last winter I think. Tried looking at a few euro products and something seemed really off with the snow map and those insane totals...particularly here in CT. The sfc/850 low track didn’t seem favorable for that result, however on Ryan Maue’s site there isn’t much in the way of 700mb products. I’m sure there will be a swath of some pretty decent freezing rain...but I also wonder if the heaviest precip is done before the thermals change to favor freezing rain. I think here in CT we see 4-7” of snow (all within a brief period) and then get some transition over to icing and then even sleet/rain. Not sure where the boundary sets up. Seeihg how quickly CAA gets involved and dry slot quickly racing NE has me wondering about longer duration precip Paul , dry slot? FYI you can see 7H at weather.us This is the warmest over CT on the Euro 12Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Yeah..... I'm not going with the GFS is a terrible model meme - no way... Not when this thing isn't even sampled in the physical sounding grid..... I mean I get where y'all's comin' from but ... it could still be right - even if we doubt it. You now, if a GFS low attempts ... a compromised occluded/triple point run out underneath and damaging ice after a half foot wallop would atone for that cold BL/backed by high pressure just fine... I mean, there's little imagination being supplied to compromises so... I'd hold off the ridicule... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 29 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: GEFS are not as amped as the OP but still more so than the EPS. My guess is the GFS caves at 00z. Leads me to believe the OP run had a couple hits of crack it bought from his drunk uncle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Paul , dry slot? FYI you can see 7H at weather.us This is the warmest over CT on the Euro 12Z Didn’t mean dry slot in a bad way...just meant it looks like it could push in by 12z...I thought anyways. WTF...that is offered on weather.us for free but nothing like that for the $10 a month package Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 13 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I’m liking a swath from ME back through central/southern NH, central/southern VT back through W MA...maybe NW Hills and down through NY for the highest snows. Maybe a 10-14” range. Thats a lot about this that continues to be rather puzzling. I think we’re looking at a relatively short-ish window for the majority of the precipitation (maybe 8 hours?) which will hurt the snow maps showing like 20+”. Thats a great forecast, IMO. Pretty much identical to the EPS highest probability snows. And I agree on the amounts. Maybe I'll be proven wrong but the all-snow 2"+ QPF amounts seem very hard to believe. I feel like we've seen it in big storms where the WCB is progged to be obscene, and it is, just not at .75-1" QPF in 6 hours type deal in the snow column. It still comes in like a wall but I could see us looking at like the HRRR hours prior and it wants to reduce QPF by like 30% of what the globals were showing for days. I think there was a March storm (two winters ago?) where the Euro kept printing like a wall of extremely heavy snow moving north into New England and while it was heavy, it wasn't like a foot in 6-8 hours heavy that the model was advertising. But even in that one after looking at it in the models for days you started to think well it must be true? A wall of 6-hrly QPF of like 0.8-1.0" stuff turned into 0.5-.7". Still a heavy thump but toned down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 MJO is in phase 3 moving to 4 when the weekend arrives (*ducks). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 GFS can't stop there ... After a vicious backside cold gong it goes ahead and rolls out the air mass just in time (phew that was close) ...sparing any snow on the next system. That oughta get the locals in cozy brotherly lovin' feelin' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: MJO is in phase 3 moving to 4 when the weekend arrives (*ducks). Uh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 22 minutes ago, sbos_wx said: Harvey is cold and snowy Details? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 8 minutes ago, weathafella said: Details? He wouldn't offer totals, was bullish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 3 minutes ago, sbos_wx said: He wouldn't offer totals, was bullish Are you still thinking 1-3” for your city? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Congrats VT crew on Tuesday morning having the highest 2m temp negative anomaly in the world on the 18Z GEFS of -21C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 18z euro looks pretty similar at the surface..maybe slight tick nw..but only at 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderblizzard Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 18z Euro looks a tick more amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Yeah, 18z Euro more amped and going to come more NW. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 10 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Are you still thinking 1-3” for your city? Either 3-6 or 6-12 we'll see after 0z and tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 A decent amount faster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Congrats VT crew on Tuesday morning having the highest 2m temp negative anomaly in the world on the 18Z GEFS of -21C Yay... haha. Fresh snow on top of the existing cold snowpack, along with clear skies and very cold air mass... the set-up is there for rock bottom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 This was the northern extent of where some spot in the column goes above freezing on the euro. Somewhere a bit SE of that line is probably the northern extent of the pingers on that 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 About 3 hrs faster then 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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