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Winter Begins Jan 20th AWT

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4 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

The op Euro would be a hideous ice storm around NYC/NJ I think 

Could it keep them from posting? 

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I think sleet is probably a better bet for the coastline then freezing rain, we rarely get freezing rain here, we get sleet most times and then plain rain.  I think someone is going to get a jp band of 24"+ in SNE.  I think I will see between 6-12" of snow from this one and a much bigger amounts from the midweek storm next week.  EURO trended colder with that one, which looks like a bomb.

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3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Which rarely if ever occurs.  Doesn’t mean it can’t happen but I would lean towards it being more sleet or just going to rain faster.  That’s what happens 95 out of 100 times here.  A severe ice storm is about a once in 20-30 year event for the NYC metro and Long Island 

Yeah, I'd be shocked by that much ice but we'll see. Wonder what curveball guidance will throw next.

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

When was the last epic ice storm in NYC? 1994? 25 years....about due for another. Jan 1978 had one too.

 

1994.  There was a very severe ice storm along the north shore of LI, Queens, and NYC in February 99 where about 1 inch fell between 5 and 10am but it was fairly localized and even parts of NE NJ saw less precip.  78 I think was the last one before 94 and I think some time in the mid to late 1950s was the one before that 

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1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

1994.  There was a very severe ice storm along the north shore of LI, Queens, and NYC in February 99 where about 1 inch fell between 5 and 10am but it was fairly localized and even parts of NE NJ saw less precip.  78 I think was the last one before 94 and I think some time in the mid to late 1950s was the one before that 

Yup - I remember the bridges being closed so they could sledge the ice of the super structure. I have a vague memory of someone getting seriously hurt as ice came off Whitestone I think.

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3 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

I think sleet is probably a better bet for the coastline then freezing rain, we rarely get freezing rain here, we get sleet most times and then plain rain.  I think someone is going to get a jp band of 24"+ in SNE.  I think I will see between 6-12" of snow from this one and a much bigger amounts from the midweek storm next week.  EURO trended colder with that one, which looks like a bomb.

6-12" would be the absolute best case senario for you, there is really no model showing that right now expect the UKMET...maybe. Learn from your last mistake when you completely over zealous and apologized for it.

A couple inches on the front end to a mix then rain looks likely for your area right now, be realistic.

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Just now, cut said:

Yup - I remember the bridges being closed so they could sledge the ice of the super structure. I have a vague memory of someone getting seriously hurt as ice came off Whitestone I think.

And I think we had a few of these borderline systems in a row and constant deep freeze right after - over like a 2 or 3 week stretch.

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1 minute ago, cut said:

Yup - I remember the bridges being closed so they could sledge the ice of the super structure. I have a vague memory of someone getting seriously hurt as ice came off Whitestone I think.

Yup.  While googling NYC ice storm 1994, I saw an article of a woman seriously hurt by falling ice

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Tracking and watching this storm and watching the Bruins/Montreal game on Monday have some creepy parallels.  Such emotional highs and lows.  This Euro run felt like that goal with 30 seconds left to tie it up.  Lets just hope the next 2 days dont end up feeling like how the game ended with a soul crushing Montreal OT goal in the first 15 seconds.

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6 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

EC ZR last two runs..

1

That's not something you see modeled every day.

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It's going to be almost impossible to avoid a band of significant icing in this setup....the question is just where does it happen. These further south ticks have put NYC/NJ SW CT more in the zone for big icing versus C/N CT into MA on yesterday's runs.

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3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Yup.  While googling NYC ice storm 1994, I saw an article of a woman seriously hurt by falling ice

On bridge correct?

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7 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

EC ZR last two runs..

ecmwf_frz_rain_boston_21.thumb.png.f5f95471f8731d7aec9d2efe188b5fba.pngecmwf_frz_rain_boston_23.thumb.png.5798f82d7583cab1540a226e2e64e1c3.png

Do any other models show ice south of the Pike as consistent as this and is this more IP than ZR?

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3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Based on the posts. I didn’t think big ice signal along the 84 corridor but maps look warmer than suggested. This aint good.

The 12Z Euro is basically a pounding of 8-10" of snow in a few hours, to close to an inch of ice on top of that, and coated with an couple/few inches on top of that. Nasty stuff. 

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

It's going to be almost impossible to avoid a band of significant icing in this setup....the question is just where does it happen. These further south ticks have put NYC/NJ SW CT more in the zone for big icing versus N CT into MA on yesterday's runs.

Hopefully it stays south of the pike. I don't think anyone wants an inch of ice except for a certain someone in NE Connecticut. It's Championship Weekend and I've already decided that travel on Sunday is not going to work and cancelled plans

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Not tossed but I’d wager a lot of that is sleet 

Yes, I agree...the stuff down further south is prob legit ZR, but those algorithms really don't give enough sleet. Most of that north of C CT is sleet....it doesn't get that warm aloft up there.

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14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

When was the last epic ice storm in NYC? 1994? 25 years....about due for another. Jan 1978 had one too.

and even then.....I don't think they've ever had one that matched 2008 up this way into NH. Too close to the coast. 

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2 minutes ago, Modfan said:

Do any other models show ice south of the Pike as consistent as this and is this more IP than ZR?

Those EC freezing rain maps are bad. They're based on the instantaneous ptype at a certain time (say 12z) and then the prior 6 hours of QPF is included. So say you're sleet until 6:45 a.m. everything from 1 a.m. to 6:45 a.m. would be incorrectly computed as ZR.

So, user beware.

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8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It's going to be almost impossible to avoid a band of significant icing in this setup....the question is just where does it happen. These further south ticks have put NYC/NJ SW CT more in the zone for big icing versus C/N CT into MA on yesterday's runs.

Perhaps targeting the straw-man ... I don't think anyone should be surprised... That's the one contention in this that's been the most glaring and confident; one should be leaning toward colder/BL forcing -

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