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Winter Begins Jan 20th AWT


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38 minutes ago, Mr. Windcredible! said:

Trends are great in CT for anyone who ever wanted a skating rink in their yard. Flooding rain followed by a flash freeze. I always said I’d prefer a 50 degree rainstorm to a crushing ice storm...I guess I should be happy.

This I am pleased about. Everyone was petrified of ice and I am tired of losing power. If it's not going to snow lets get warm enough to remove freezing rain.

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15 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Based on the early alarms broadcast about this event, this could go down as an historical bust, particularly if there is nothing crazy ice-wise.  3’ to 5”.  Not much Of a miss.

Not to quibble over inherently subjective semantics but... this wouldn't even make the top 10. 

A bust is when a region is closer to utterly blind-sided ....  Technically, there's no lead warning or anticipation and the situation goes awry - that's a bust, for worse(better).

This still has hours leading.. and frankly, the contentious nature of modeling guidance means the blind part kinda fails... but it's moot because we are being warned with enough time to react accordingly.

Not a bust. If we want to argue poor modeling performance ...sure... that's different than blind-side variant result though. 

Look, I understand frustration ...

 

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1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Should I be worried about sleet here at Killington tomorrow now?  Really don’t want pellets hitting me in the face.  That seems crazy but that warm layer keeps trending north every run.  Starting to wonder if I should have gone further north to Bush Stowe or Smuggs. 

I think you'll be fine at Killington, but I guess there's a chance.  I'm probably changing my Bromley plans to Gore.  Will decide in the morning based on nowcasting.

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22 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Based on the early alarms broadcast about this event, this could go down as an historical bust, particularly if there is nothing crazy ice-wise.  3’ to 5”.  Not much Of a miss.

Too many people bought into the hype machine that was created in the media. Even at the gym this morning I overheard a couple of people talking about receiving 2-3 feet of snow. 

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1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

It's a pretty close call for a nasty ice storm for you up through ORH, I'm almost leaning towards it. Knock like 2C off the surface progs and there you go.

Just gonna have to see how it plays out. If Euro holds serve like it has for 4 days it might be go time. I can tell you one thing.. anyone thinking it gets above freezing within 10-20 miles of the coast are going to be shocked tomorrow when it’s in the 20’s - near 30 tomorrow morning 

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45 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I’m with my 4 year old son and that area is less kid friendly. I love Sugarbush. We are staying in Rutland though and doubt we can make it up there in the morning given the weather. Might even struggle to get to Killington. Thanks for the input. 

Pico!  Cheaper, great mountain, family friendly, closer!

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11 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Too many people bought into the hype machine that was created in the media. Even at the gym this morning I overheard a couple of people talking about receiving 2-3 feet of snow. 

The folly of some on-air mets (Harvey included) putting out big snow amounts 72 hrs before the event, especially with the uncertainty in this system.

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20 minutes ago, PWMan said:

Latest GYX probabilistic maps still show PWM with 14-16”, but I did notice that the 90% low-end has been cut back to 6; was 11 yesterday.

Cut back to about 8” up here on low end, but expected is still 17”.  We’ll see how it all shakes out.  Hope our friends to the south end up with some pleasant surprises.

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51 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Too many people bought into the hype machine that was created in the media. Even at the gym this morning I overheard a couple of people talking about receiving 2-3 feet of snow. 

If the general public is still thinking that way they are going to be extremely surprised if these models keep going north. There will be an outcry on social media which is really the thing responsible for having to put out snow maps so early. Once some idiot posts a D7 Euro map that shows 2’ up and down 95, it goes viral and becomes unstoppable, even a week out. 

I thought it was funny last night as the 00z models were coming out showing a lot more warmth that Pete B. said that because of the government shutdown, it’s playing havoc with the models lol. Is there any truth to that? Less balloons being being launched and such?

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24 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

32/15 here now.. wind out of the north at 6 so the northerly drain has started!! were screwed  I think. 

I agree. I'd be very careful about writing off the sig icing potential for northern CT. Plenty of room to wet-bulb are way down. Maybe coastal CT warms into the upper 30's to lower 40's, but I doubt we do in northern CT. At worse we may get a 33 or 34. It's going to be close 

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