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Winter Begins Jan 20th AWT

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

This is one of the weirdest storms I've ever tracked. I've never seen models insist on plowing into an Arctic high like this. Ever. If someone can find me an analog, I'm all ears but I've searched. Nada. Ok expecting a huge bust on low level temps by the models. But I'm def gonna be wrong on the colder tick aloft I was expecting. 

If you had to forecast it.. how far north and west does 32 get?

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

The one thing I’m noticing is the lack of a cold push. The classic ones have the big cold push the day prior on strong NW winds and set the stage. We just have the cold oozing in despite HP to the north....there is no good push south. On top of that. This low is approaching at a high latitude. So the flow turns east quick and really ends the cold advection off the deck. What we do have is cold coming in from the NE in the interior. That may help them, but it’s curtains for many down here. 

Yes that angle of approach at a higher latitude has been showing ENE  winds on east coast of mass.

this looks like a disaster for ORH up toward ASH and west for ice potential in 9’th inning over to probably N Ct.

QPF with amped track is 2.5 plus 

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

The one thing I’m noticing is the lack of a cold push. The classic ones have the big cold push the day prior on strong NW winds and set the stage. We just have the cold oozing in despite HP to the north....there is no good push south. On top of that. This low is approaching at a high latitude. So the flow turns east quick and really ends the cold advection off the deck. What we do have is cold coming in from the NE in the interior. That may help them, but it’s curtains for many down here. 

It’s a pretty strong low over the appalachians to begin with.  Pretty strong southerly flow to begin with.  I said it many days ago that I did. Not like the trajectory it was coming at us.  Pretty high latitude for a southern stream system.

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

You know drill . Toss it 

NAM says trend is not your friend, get up at 3 am to look at your snow before it all washes away 

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

The one thing I’m noticing is the lack of a cold push. The classic ones have the big cold push the day prior on strong NW winds and set the stage. We just have the cold oozing in despite HP to the north....there is no good push south. On top of that. This low is approaching at a high latitude. So the flow turns east quick and really ends the cold advection off the deck. What we do have is cold coming in from the NE in the interior. That may help them, but it’s curtains for many down here. 

I noticed that here too, the current temperature here is 27.0/25. The atmosphere never got the low dews here. Even in the November storm we were in the low 20s when it started and it "felt" cold. It doesn't really feel cold out there right now...Guess there is next week and we can track wind chills on Monday. :raining:

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Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

It’s a pretty strong low over the appalachians to begin with.  Pretty strong southerly flow to begin with.  I said it many days ago that I did. Not like the trajectory it was coming at us.  Pretty high latitude for a southern stream system.

Yep good call, still think NAM is overamped though. Doesn't make a difference for us. Harveys Thursday snow map was too early AWT

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1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

If he sleets it will be brief. 

Probably...but the convection in the SE is still going strong. We may just keep ticking warmer right up until go time.

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9 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

At what point do you backtrack your thoughts of this not tracking over SE areas.

Well it could def track over like PYM. But it's not going over, say, BOS I don't think. Def not anything west. I'll believe that when I actually see it. 

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This reminds me of the powerful rain/windstorm last winter that was entirely rain for almost all of SE MA but interior NE and Maine got socked with feet of snow. It was a total bust for Boston

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2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

NAM says trend is not your friend, get up at 3 am to look at your snow before it all washes away 

When It goes 100 miles SE at 18 and 00z.. we’ll know why 

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1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Yep good call, still think NAM is overamped though. Doesn't make a difference for us. Harveys Thursday snow map was too early AWT

Probably right and as you said, there has been a steady but slow northward trend in warmth at all levels on this one for about 2 days now.  Suck that they are sort of forced to throw out maps 4 days out.

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

When It goes 100 miles SE at 18 and 00z.. we’ll know why 

Enjoy the rain, it’s the only rain you’ve got.

Another system turning to dog dung as we get closer 

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Man even the extended HRRR was one of the last colder models just jumped big at 12z and now mixes up into the SVT ski areas.  

The best banding may get north of me on some of these.  One crazy storm to track.

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14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

This is one of the weirdest storms I've ever tracked. I've never seen models insist on plowing into an Arctic high like this. Ever. If someone can find me an analog, I'm all ears but I've searched. Nada. Ok expecting a huge bust on low level temps by the models. But I'm def gonna be wrong on the colder tick aloft I was expecting. 

But this Arctic "high" is more like a band of cold air than an actual high pressure center. There's almost no north-south orientation to it, so any southerly flow has tons of room to push north.

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4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

When It goes 100 miles SE at 18 and 00z.. we’ll know why 

Storm will be under way by 00z.

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Oh boy.  Looks like a beauty...minus the beauty part.  

It will be nice not to have to move any snow around.  
 

MUST. MAKE. SURE. DRAINS. ARE CLEAR.

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We need at Messenger bump SE or its lights out for some.  CTRV CAD would likely save me from a torch but siggy ice may be slipping away.  Well see what happens from here.  

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