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Winter Begins Jan 20th AWT


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12 minutes ago, dendrite said:

AWTs left and right

For what it's worth my temperature is dropping.  Initially, with the onset of snow it dropped then held fairly steady.  In the past hour the temperature has dropped 1F to 13.7F.  Wind is picking up and can start to hear the howling sound in the woods.  This is going to be a tough one to measure.  On social media, you will see all kinds of numbers the way it's blowing around.

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19 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Hey Chris... you folks at NWS looking over any soundings ?

... curious how deep in the atmosphere this arctic arm/exertion really is ... particularly down here around this interface/storm track.

I was sleeping when you sent this out, but our morning sounding is verifying like 6,000 feet deep (700 mb is like -1C) and I would say we're probably in the heart of the CAD.

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1 hour ago, OceanStWx said:

I was sleeping when you sent this out, but our morning sounding is verifying like 6,000 feet deep (700 mb is like -1C) and I would say we're probably in the heart of the CAD.

Yeah.. now in retrospect it is... it does atone -  ..I was looking around at obs about 8 ... 8:15 last night and I was thinking how off this BL handling looked.  As soon as "any" low pressure at all even hinted at approaching the south coast we triggered this impressive pulse of ageo mass here.  We are 15 f'um degrees everywhere and that air is flooding downtown Boston within the hour down here.

I love this kind of thing ...

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23 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

That's exactly what will happen in this storm. The very low Arctic dews are going to be advecting south during the event. This is where I think models are the worst. They put too much emphasis on latent heat in that scenario and not enough on advection of dews. 

Word!

Here is the closest I personally recall hedging myself .. .

" Now... out here in reality... this is probably a ice storm and the models RGEM/NAM...etc... probably too liberal with the polar penetration of warmth at llvs anyway, because the standard BL correction should be applied. " ...which other than the ice storm reference... I was in your camp all along, as were others.  This was man correction over machine ftw on this one!

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So, did the pattern really change? And im not being sarcastic, so please dont read that and infer a sarcastic tone. Still no blocking, still getting cutters or NNE jackpot storms. This is the same storm track, it doesnt appear anything has changed. Now we are going into the 4th week of January. 

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On 1/18/2019 at 7:21 PM, OceanStWx said:

I want to say something snarky, but we do. So does BOX. Since we started probabilistic snow we’ve documented this.

My SOO’s gut check is: is there is any real chance that your forecast is too low? If you say no, then you have a high bias.

OceanStWX, No offense wasnt meant by it (and I believe by reading none was taken).  I have had the opportunity to visit your WFO while studying meteorology at Plymouth State University.  Great facility and great forecasters there.  One of my old coworkers lived in New Ipswich, NH and I lived in Ashby, MA.  We were basically neighbors (1 mile down the road) and we would always go back and forth on how BOX anf GYX both predicted their snow totals.  

I also agree, BOX does tend to over predict at times as well (as I am sure all WFOs tend to do at one point or another).  It was just amusing to see that southern NH tends (especially in my neck of the woods) gets over predicted quite a bit. I do agree with your gut check though, and it is something I tend to do as well.

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