Hoth Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The one thing I’m noticing is the lack of a cold push. The classic ones have the big cold push the day prior on strong NW winds and set the stage. We just have the cold oozing in despite HP to the north....there is no good push south. On top of that. This low is approaching at a high latitude. So the flow turns east quick and really ends the cold advection off the deck. What we do have is cold coming in from the NE in the interior. That may help them, but it’s curtains for many down here. Purely anecdotal, but the air down here certainly does not feel supportive of an ice event. Almost felt like late March. Kind of expected today to be chilly and gray with really low DPs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Geezuz on the 3k Nam ORH to HUNCHIE gets smoked with heavy snow to sleet then an epic ice storm. Sound the alarms for that area prob into Rindge NH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 And QPF. 3.5” over TAN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 18 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Wear black to the gtg...raise a glass LOL. I'm thinking just a ton of pings here, not ZR. 13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Well it could def track over like PYM. But it's not going over, say, BOS I don't think. Def not anything west. I'll believe that when I actually see it. https://getyarn.io/yarn-clip/01af156f-fc74-49a3-9bae-4b9922d26d77 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 ...The PVD / Cape Anne track is coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 You can envision Euro tucking colder at 12z today . It’ll be classic euro as it takes the lead and all the weenies that jumped off the bus jump back on. That high and cold air not gonna be denied 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 9 minutes ago, forkyfork said: hope floats away It all floats down here. You'll float too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 The gfs was driving this low inland before any signs of the srn s/w trending stronger. That’s not a win for it. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 12Z NAM (FRH grid) actually warm sectors Logan ... period. 220 winds at 21 knts ; LI's modestly unstable... off the charts QPF too... talking 3" total... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 20 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Wear black to the gtg...raise a glass Going the Bruins game tonight. Wish I could make it. Plus the concern about parking here makes moving the car an insane move Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Even ALB is now with a tall sleet column at max ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 You can envision the Euro tickling North as it’s been doing for the last 4 cycles or so. Sleet and FZRA into SNH. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: The gfs was driving this low inland before any signs of the srn s/w trending stronger. That’s not a win for it. Agree. It’ll have a faux win anytime a system trends warmer in the shorter range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: You can envision Euro tucking colder at 12z today . It’ll be classic euro as it takes the lead and all the weenies that jumped off the bus jump back on. That high and cold air not gonna be denied Keep holding on my brother Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: You can envision Euro tucking colder at 12z today . It’ll be classic euro as it takes the lead and all the weenies that jumped off the bus jump back on. That high and cold air not gonna be denied idk, this whole latent heat discussion has me all hot and bothered 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: The gfs was driving this low inland before any signs of the srn s/w trending stronger. That’s not a win for it. Should this play out like we're seeing now: Sensible weather wise, GFS did the best. NAM missed all over the place. Even a broken clock is right twice a day. Euro wins the prize being the most consistent in it's being wrong. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The gfs was driving this low inland before any signs of the srn s/w trending stronger. That’s not a win for it. Just like people thought the GFS was right on the blizzard bust a few winters ago. It was right for the wrong reason Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, moneypitmike said: Should this play out like we're seeing now: Sensible weather wise, GFS did the best. NAM missed all over the place. Even a broken clock is right twice a day. Euro wins the prize being the most consistent in it's being wrong. Seems voodoo ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: You can envision the Euro tickling North as it’s been doing for the last 4 cycles or so. Sleet and FZRA into SNH. It’s a virtual lock sleet in C NH frzr will be potentially crippling rindge/ temple /Hollis . Inland S NH ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 It’ll be interesting to see how long BOS can go before getting its first inch if it doesn’t happen with this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 8 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: It’s a virtual lock sleet in C NH frzr will be potentially crippling rindge/ temple /Hollis . Inland S NH ... Lol. Euro has not come north and warmed. Been consistent. Sone of you guys have lost it. Stick with Will. He knows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: It’s a virtual lock sleet in C NH frzr will be potentially crippling rindge/ temple /Hollis Glad we don't live there with the ensuing mild-down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: The gfs was driving this low inland before any signs of the srn s/w trending stronger. That’s not a win for it. Correct. Also just using the NAM as an example. Look at how the heights elongate westward in Canada as a result of the stronger southern s/w. This allows heights ahead to be pumped up just enough. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Lol. Euro has not come north and warmed. Been consistent. Sone of you guys have lost it. Stuck with Will. Hr knows I would love for KURO to not budge or tickle S . We will see at Funkys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Meanwhile Mets south of the Pike doing shots of whiskey and chasing them with Pepto Bismol over this storm! Pretty much a now cast event and someone is going to get a decent ice storm out of this the question is where does it set up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Should I be worried about sleet here at Killington tomorrow now? Really don’t want pellets hitting me in the face. That seems crazy but that warm layer keeps trending north every run. Starting to wonder if I should have gone further north to Bush Stowe or Smuggs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 10 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: It’s a virtual lock sleet in C NH frzr will be potentially crippling rindge/ temple /Hollis . Inland S NH ... But what about me?!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Semper911 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 41 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I just want the Patriots to win. I'm with you, James. And I want the power to stay on so we can watch it. That is all I ask from this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 I think there's been a collective chiding and of the GFS all along ... a lot of which was unfair. I admit, I was susceptible to the colder solution, myself... but I'm glad I never threw the GFS under the bus like I read so many posts. I was taught years ago to work with a model's biases - that's a art that's lost on this crew at times from what I've observed over the years. I Because now we're closing in ... and the arctic boundary ... although it came through, the cold air (appears) to not have penetrate quite as deeply as the colder camped guidance suggested all week it would. That was a key factor in prevention of a NW track. The NAM is moving the warm-front past Logan ...and this is going to cause tsunamis of angry/bargaining post prior to post-mortem depression... finally, acceptance - a cycling that really does take place in here with eerily similarity to that phenomenon. But don't blame me while your sequencing through all that - I'm just reporting what has happened, and what is happening now: people made fun of and ridiculed a model before verification guidance is jamming said model's warmer looks down our throats Having said that... maybe the arctic air is, secondarily now being sampled wrong and is under-estimated in the models... Yeah, okay. Sure, could go back the other direction. But, I think the ship has already sailed on pointing out why we shouldn't admonish the GFS like we find it so satisfying to do so, when it so happens to illustrate evolution we don't want. Just trying to be fair man - 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 minute ago, Whineminster said: But what about me?!!! U look so screwed 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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